【摘要】：改革開放以來,黑龍江省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速,社會(huì)財(cái)富和居民生活水平得到了快速的提高。同時(shí)也存在著諸多問題,其中之一就是居民消費(fèi)占GDP的比重始終較低,而且還呈現(xiàn)出不斷下滑的趨勢。Modigliani和Brumberg(1954)的生命周期理論認(rèn)為人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)會(huì)對居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生重要的影響。本論文根據(jù)這一思想,試圖從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的視角分析居民消費(fèi)率變動(dòng)問題。研究人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費(fèi)的影響,使我們從宏觀的角度更為準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測人口老齡化對黑龍江省未來消費(fèi)的影響,以及對整個(gè)省的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。 論文首先分析了黑龍江省歷年居民消費(fèi)水平變動(dòng),其次分了三個(gè)章節(jié)分析了黑龍江省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)及其對其居民消費(fèi)水平的影響。從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)看,黑龍江省人口自然增長率保持低速穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),0-14歲少兒人口數(shù)量不斷減少,但是減少幅度趨緩,15-64歲青壯年人口呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長的趨勢,但是受到少兒人口數(shù)不斷減少的影響,未來15-64歲青壯年人口增長空間有限,65歲以上老年人口繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定增長,因此,論文認(rèn)為黑龍江省的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)顯示出黑龍江省已經(jīng)進(jìn)入老齡人口社會(huì)。從居民消費(fèi)水平看,黑龍江省居民消費(fèi)水平從絕對數(shù)上講呈現(xiàn)出不斷擴(kuò)大的趨勢,但是從黑龍江省居民消費(fèi)率看呈現(xiàn)出在波動(dòng)中不斷降低的趨勢。這說明黑龍江省居民消費(fèi)水平的變動(dòng)趕不上GDP的增長,居民消費(fèi)需求不足。從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對黑龍江省居民消費(fèi)水平的影響上看,人口自然增長率變動(dòng)對居民消費(fèi)水平的影響較小,人口自然增長率每提高1%僅可以帶動(dòng)0.021%的居民消費(fèi)水平增加；而適齡勞動(dòng)人口變動(dòng)對居民消費(fèi)水平的影響是反向的,適齡勞動(dòng)人口每增加1%會(huì)引起居民消費(fèi)水平降低0.839%；人口老齡化也會(huì)引起居民消費(fèi)水平反向變動(dòng),即人口老齡化提高1%會(huì)引起居民消費(fèi)水平降低0.126%。從這個(gè)角度看,隨著黑龍江省少兒人口數(shù)量不斷減低,人口老齡化不斷提高,適齡勞動(dòng)人口不斷增加,未來黑龍江省居民實(shí)際消費(fèi)水平在數(shù)量上會(huì)不斷增加,但是居民消費(fèi)率會(huì)繼續(xù)降低。 結(jié)合黑龍江省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的趨勢和居民消費(fèi)水平變動(dòng)的特點(diǎn),論文認(rèn)為黑龍江省人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)不利于黑龍江省提高居民消費(fèi)水平,不利于黑龍江省擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需,尤其是消費(fèi)需求。為此,黑龍江省必須進(jìn)行一些政策措施以最大限度的緩解人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對其居民消費(fèi)水平提高帶來的不利影響。論文建議從完善社會(huì)保障制度、大力增加居民收入、轉(zhuǎn)變居民消費(fèi)觀念、大力改善消費(fèi)環(huán)境等幾個(gè)方面促進(jìn)黑龍江省居民消費(fèi)水平不斷提高。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economic development of Heilongjiang Province has been rapid, social wealth and living standards have been improved rapidly. At the same time, there are also many problems, one of which is that the proportion of household consumption in GDP is always low, but also presents a downward trend. Modigliani and Brumberg (1954) life cycle theory holds that population Based on this idea, this paper tries to analyze the change of the consumption rate from the perspective of the change of the age structure of population, and to study the influence of the age structure of population on the consumption of residents, so that we can more accurately predict the future disappearance of Heilongjiang Province from a macroscopic point of view. The impact of fees and the impact on the whole province's national economy.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the change of consumption level of Heilongjiang province in the past years, and then divides into three chapters to analyze the change of population age structure and its influence on consumption level of Heilongjiang province. The population of young adults aged 15-64 shows a steady growth trend, but due to the decrease of the number of children, the future population growth space of young adults aged 15-64 is limited, and the population over 65 years old will continue to maintain a stable growth. Therefore, the paper considers that the population age structure of Heilongjiang Province shows that Heilongjiang Province has already. From the perspective of consumption level of residents, the consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province shows a trend of increasing in absolute numbers, but from the perspective of consumption rate of residents in Heilongjiang Province shows a trend of decreasing in fluctuation. This shows that the change of consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province can not keep up with the growth of GDP and the consumption demand of residents. From the point of view of the influence of the change of population age structure on the consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province, the change of population natural growth rate has little influence on the consumption level of residents, and each increase of population natural growth rate can only lead to the increase of 0.021% of the consumption level of residents; while the change of working-age population has a reverse effect on the consumption level of residents. Every 1% increase in the working-age population will result in a 0.839% decrease in the consumption level of residents, and an aging population will also cause a reverse change in the consumption level of residents, i.e. an increase of 1% in the aging population will lead to a decrease of 0.126% in the consumption level of residents. With the increasing labor force, the real consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province will continue to increase in quantity in the future, but the consumption rate of residents will continue to decline.
Considering the changing trend of population age structure and the changing characteristics of residents'consumption level in Heilongjiang Province, the paper holds that the change of population age structure in Heilongjiang Province is not conducive to the improvement of residents' consumption level in Heilongjiang Province, and is not conducive to the expansion of domestic demand, especially consumption demand in Heilongjiang Province. The paper suggests improving the social security system, increasing the income of residents, changing the concept of residents'consumption, and improving the consumption environment to promote the continuous improvement of residents' consumption level in Heilongjiang Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C92-05;F126.1;F224

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