【摘要】：人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化可以通過(guò)直接和間接效應(yīng)影響一個(gè)國(guó)家的潛在增長(zhǎng)率。人口紅利消失將導(dǎo)致潛在增長(zhǎng)率下降已經(jīng)在文獻(xiàn)中被證實(shí)。從第六次人口普查來(lái)看,中國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷人口結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變,這與20世紀(jì)90年代初的日本非常相似。我們分別對(duì)中國(guó)1980~2030年和日本1960~2010年的潛在增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)行了估計(jì),通過(guò)對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn),與日本相似,由于人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化,中國(guó)未來(lái)的潛在增長(zhǎng)率將迅速降低。然而,日本在人口紅利消失后仍然堅(jiān)持采用經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃試圖維持之前的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,最終導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫不斷膨脹并破裂,對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的破壞可能遠(yuǎn)不止是"失去的十年"。中國(guó)應(yīng)該借鑒日本的教訓(xùn),避免采用經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,人為推高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率。
[Abstract]:Demographic changes can affect a country's potential growth rate through direct and indirect effects. The loss of the demographic dividend will lead to a decline in the potential growth rate, which has been confirmed in the literature. According to the sixth census, China is undergoing a demographic shift, much like Japan in the early 1990s. We estimate the potential growth rate of China from 1980 to 2030 and Japan from 1960 to 2010. It is found by comparison that the potential growth rate of China will decrease rapidly because of the change of population structure. However, Japan's insistence on using the stimulus package to maintain the pace of its previous economic growth after the loss of the demographic dividend eventually led to the expansion and bursting of the bubble, and the damage to the real economy may go well beyond the "lost decade." China should learn from Japan's lessons and avoid using stimulus packages to artificially boost growth.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院人口與勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;
【分類號(hào)】：C921

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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