【摘要】：目前，世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展受到了來自經(jīng)常項目失衡的威脅，同時有關(guān)學者們也開始質(zhì)疑經(jīng)常項目失衡這一問題的可持續(xù)性。因此有必要探討是哪些因素對經(jīng)常項目差額的變動產(chǎn)生了影響。在現(xiàn)實中，不同時期一國或地區(qū)的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)會有所不同，同樣在同一時期不同國家或地區(qū)的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)也會存在差異，由于儲蓄和投資行為會因不同的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)而不同，而經(jīng)常項目又會受到儲蓄和投資的影響，所以經(jīng)常項目的變動必然受到人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)（包括人口老齡化）變動的影響。因此本文從這一新的角度出發(fā)，分析影響經(jīng)常項目的另一個因素人口老齡化。 文章在對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)常項目的研究文獻進行回顧的基礎上，首先對一些重要概念進行了界定，回顧了人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論和生命周期假說，，從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)角度分析了人口老齡化對經(jīng)常項目的影響機制，其中先簡要分析了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響經(jīng)常項目傳導機制的三階段說，再主要從國民收入恒等式角度出發(fā)，研究了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響經(jīng)常項目的傳導機制，分析發(fā)現(xiàn)人口老齡化會從儲蓄、投資、消費、政府收支和出口這些方面對經(jīng)常項目產(chǎn)生影響。 文章還對我國人口老齡化與經(jīng)常項目的發(fā)展歷程和未來發(fā)展趨勢進行了闡述，歸納分析人口老齡化對經(jīng)常項目可能產(chǎn)生的影響。在此基礎上建立了計量模型，并用我國30個省份2000-2010年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進行實證檢驗。在變量的選取中除了反映人口老齡化的指標撫養(yǎng)比外，本文還加入了一系列影響經(jīng)常項目的因素作為控制變量。本文通過固定效應冗余檢驗和Hausman檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn)應采用固定效應對模型進行估計，實證結(jié)果顯示，老年撫養(yǎng)比與經(jīng)常項目差額占GDP的比重之間存在著負相關(guān)關(guān)系。本文還選取老年撫養(yǎng)比滯后兩期的變量進行回歸，對老年撫養(yǎng)比的內(nèi)生性進行了檢驗。 最后，在研究的基礎上得出一些啟示，認為如果我們利用目前的經(jīng)常項目盈余、充足的資本進行跨國投資，從而使得資本利得增加，這將對于應對日益嚴重的人口老齡化有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。而我國經(jīng)常項目順差的趨勢將隨著人口老齡化的加劇逐漸減弱，從而對人口政策、我國面臨的人民幣升值問題有一定的參考意義。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of the world economy is threatened by the current account imbalance, and scholars have begun to question the sustainability of the current account imbalance. It is therefore necessary to explore the factors that have influenced the movement of current account balances. In reality, the age structure of the population of a country or region will vary from time to time, and there will also be differences in the age structure of the population in different countries or regions during the same period. Because the behavior of saving and investment will be different according to different age structure of population, and the current account will be influenced by saving and investment, the change of current account will inevitably be influenced by the change of population age structure (including population aging). Therefore, from this new perspective, this paper analyzes another factor affecting the current account population aging. On the basis of reviewing the research literature on population age structure and current items at home and abroad, this paper first defines some important concepts, reviews the theory of population transition and the hypothesis of life cycle. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population aging on current account from the point of view of population age structure. Firstly, it briefly analyzes the three stages of the transmission mechanism of population age structure affecting current account, and then mainly from the perspective of identity of national income. This paper studies the transmission mechanism of the age structure of the population affecting the current account, and finds that the aging of the population will have an impact on the current account from the aspects of savings, investment, consumption, government income and expenditure and exports. The paper also expounds the development course and future development trend of population aging and current items in China, and summarizes and analyzes the possible impact of population aging on current items. On this basis, the econometric model is established and tested with panel data from 2000 to 2010 in 30 provinces of China. In addition to the dependency ratio which reflects the aging of the population, a series of factors affecting the current account are added as control variables in the selection of variables. Through the fixed effect redundancy test and Hausman test, we find that the fixed effect should be used to estimate the model. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of current account difference to GDP. This article also selects the old age dependency ratio two lag variables to carry on the regression, has carried on the test to the old age dependency ratio endogeneity. Finally, on the basis of the research, we draw some conclusions that if we use the current account surplus, sufficient capital for transnational investment, so that capital gains increase, This will have important strategic significance to deal with the increasing population aging. However, the trend of China's current account surplus will weaken gradually with the aggravation of population aging, which has certain reference significance to the population policy and the appreciation of RMB in our country.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：C924.24

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