【摘要】：目前，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展受到了來(lái)自經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目失衡的威脅，同時(shí)有關(guān)學(xué)者們也開始質(zhì)疑經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目失衡這一問(wèn)題的可持續(xù)性。因此有必要探討是哪些因素對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目差額的變動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了影響。在現(xiàn)實(shí)中，不同時(shí)期一國(guó)或地區(qū)的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)有所不同，同樣在同一時(shí)期不同國(guó)家或地區(qū)的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)也會(huì)存在差異，由于儲(chǔ)蓄和投資行為會(huì)因不同的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)而不同，而經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目又會(huì)受到儲(chǔ)蓄和投資的影響，所以經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的變動(dòng)必然受到人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)（包括人口老齡化）變動(dòng)的影響。因此本文從這一新的角度出發(fā)，分析影響經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的另一個(gè)因素人口老齡化。 文章在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行回顧的基礎(chǔ)上，首先對(duì)一些重要概念進(jìn)行了界定，，回顧了人口轉(zhuǎn)變理論和生命周期假說(shuō)，從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)角度分析了人口老齡化對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的影響機(jī)制，其中先簡(jiǎn)要分析了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的三階段說(shuō)，再主要從國(guó)民收入恒等式角度出發(fā)，研究了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，分析發(fā)現(xiàn)人口老齡化會(huì)從儲(chǔ)蓄、投資、消費(fèi)、政府收支和出口這些方面對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生影響。 文章還對(duì)我國(guó)人口老齡化與經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展歷程和未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了闡述，歸納分析人口老齡化對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目可能產(chǎn)生的影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了計(jì)量模型，并用我國(guó)30個(gè)省份2000-2010年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。在變量的選取中除了反映人口老齡化的指標(biāo)撫養(yǎng)比外，本文還加入了一系列影響經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的因素作為控制變量。本文通過(guò)固定效應(yīng)冗余檢驗(yàn)和Hausman檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)應(yīng)采用固定效應(yīng)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行估計(jì)，實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示，老年撫養(yǎng)比與經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目差額占GDP的比重之間存在著負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。本文還選取老年撫養(yǎng)比滯后兩期的變量進(jìn)行回歸，對(duì)老年撫養(yǎng)比的內(nèi)生性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。 最后，在研究的基礎(chǔ)上得出一些啟示，認(rèn)為如果我們利用目前的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目盈余、充足的資本進(jìn)行跨國(guó)投資，從而使得資本利得增加，這將對(duì)于應(yīng)對(duì)日益嚴(yán)重的人口老齡化有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。而我國(guó)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差的趨勢(shì)將隨著人口老齡化的加劇逐漸減弱，從而對(duì)人口政策、我國(guó)面臨的人民幣升值問(wèn)題有一定的參考意義。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of the world economy is threatened by the current account imbalance, and scholars have begun to question the sustainability of the current account imbalance. It is therefore necessary to explore the factors that have influenced the movement of current account balances. In reality, the age structure of the population of a country or region will vary from time to time, and there will also be differences in the age structure of the population in different countries or regions during the same period. Because the behavior of saving and investment will be different according to different age structure of population, and the current account will be influenced by saving and investment, the change of current account will inevitably be influenced by the change of population age structure (including population aging). Therefore, from this new perspective, this paper analyzes another factor affecting the current account population aging. On the basis of reviewing the research literature on population age structure and current items at home and abroad, this paper first defines some important concepts, reviews the theory of population transition and the hypothesis of life cycle. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population aging on current account from the point of view of population age structure. Firstly, it briefly analyzes the three stages of the transmission mechanism of population age structure affecting current account, and then mainly from the perspective of identity of national income. This paper studies the transmission mechanism of the age structure of the population affecting the current account, and finds that the aging of the population will have an impact on the current account from the aspects of savings, investment, consumption, government income and expenditure and exports. The paper also expounds the development course and future development trend of population aging and current items in China, and summarizes and analyzes the possible impact of population aging on current items. On this basis, the econometric model is established and tested with panel data from 2000 to 2010 in 30 provinces of China. In addition to the dependency ratio which reflects the aging of the population, a series of factors affecting the current account are added as control variables in the selection of variables. Through the fixed effect redundancy test and Hausman test, we find that the fixed effect should be used to estimate the model. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of current account difference to GDP. This article also selects the old age dependency ratio two lag variables to carry on the regression, has carried on the test to the old age dependency ratio endogeneity. Finally, on the basis of the research, we draw some conclusions that if we use the current account surplus, sufficient capital for transnational investment, so that capital gains increase, This will have important strategic significance to deal with the increasing population aging. However, the trend of China's current account surplus will weaken gradually with the aggravation of population aging, which has certain reference significance to the population policy and the appreciation of RMB in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24

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