發(fā)布時間：2018-08-03 15:08

【摘要】：改革開放以來,隨著總和生育率下降和平均預(yù)期壽命增長,浙江省人口老齡化進(jìn)程不斷加快。據(jù)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,1978年浙江省老齡化系數(shù)只有4.94%,1988年底達(dá)到了7.07%,至2008年老齡化系數(shù)已增長到11.3%。浙江是我國老齡化突出的省份之一,人口老齡化的加劇不僅會加重社會負(fù)擔(dān),而且還不利于人力資源的合理配置。所以,正確認(rèn)識老齡化的發(fā)展歷程和成因,準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測老齡化系數(shù)的變動趨勢和峰值期,及時提出改善人口結(jié)構(gòu)的有效對策,將對浙江省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、社會保障等具有重大意義。 本文根據(jù)浙江省1978～2008年戶籍人口數(shù)據(jù),綜合運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)挖掘方法、人口學(xué)以及人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)的相關(guān)理論,建立向量自回歸模型對浙江省2009～2050年的總?cè)丝跀?shù)、老年人數(shù)和老齡化系數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測分析,并根據(jù)預(yù)測結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。論文的思路如下: 首先,介紹浙江省總?cè)丝跀?shù)、老年人口數(shù)和老齡化系數(shù)的發(fā)展歷程,并結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)對浙江省老齡化的成因進(jìn)行剖析。 然后,針對平均預(yù)期壽命和對應(yīng)年份尚存人數(shù)之間的關(guān)系,從跨年份的角度提出基本定理并對定理進(jìn)行證明,基于定理預(yù)測2010年、2020年、2030年和2040年不分性別的人口完全生命表,根據(jù)上述生命表估算2012～2050年每年的老年人口凈增加數(shù),確定老年人口數(shù)的變動路徑和峰值期,并以此提出能夠判斷老年人口數(shù)長期變動趨勢特征的命題。 接著,基于浙江省1978～2008年戶籍人口數(shù)據(jù),利用格蘭杰(Granger)因果檢驗、ADF單位根檢驗和約翰森(Johansen)協(xié)整檢驗,找出影響總?cè)丝跀?shù)或老年人口數(shù)的變量并建立人口系統(tǒng),在人口系統(tǒng)基礎(chǔ)上建立多個向量自回歸模型;對模型進(jìn)行各種統(tǒng)計檢驗后,針對平均預(yù)期壽命、省際凈遷入人數(shù)和總和生育率設(shè)定四種不同的控制方案,分別預(yù)測浙江省2009～2050年的總?cè)丝跀?shù)和老年人口數(shù)。 最后,根據(jù)預(yù)測的總?cè)丝跀?shù)和老年人口數(shù)計算老齡化系數(shù),對總?cè)丝跀?shù)、老年人口數(shù)以及老齡化系數(shù)的變動趨勢進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)合預(yù)測結(jié)果提出政府應(yīng)對人口老齡化的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the decline of total fertility rate and the increase of average life expectancy, the aging process of Zhejiang population has been accelerated. According to statistics, the coefficient of aging in Zhejiang Province was only 4.94 in 1978, reached 7.07 at the end of 1988, and increased to 11.3 in 2008. Zhejiang is one of the outstanding aging provinces in China. The aggravation of population aging will not only increase the social burden, but also be unfavorable to the rational allocation of human resources. Therefore, it is of great significance for the economic development and social security of Zhejiang Province to correctly understand the development course and causes of aging, accurately predict the changing trend and peak period of aging coefficient, and put forward effective countermeasures to improve the population structure in time. Based on the census population data of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2008, this paper establishes a vector autoregressive model for the total population of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2050 by using the data mining method, demography and relevant theories of demography. The number of the elderly and the coefficient of aging are forecasted, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the forecast results. The ideas of this paper are as follows: firstly, the paper introduces the development course of the total population, the elderly population and the aging coefficient of Zhejiang Province, and analyzes the causes of the aging in Zhejiang Province with historical data. Then, in view of the relationship between average life expectancy and the number of people remaining in the corresponding year, the basic theorem is proposed and proved from a cross-year perspective, based on which the full life table of the population, regardless of sex, is predicted in 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040. According to the above life table, the annual net increase of the elderly population from 2012 to 2050 is estimated, the changing path and peak period of the number of the elderly population are determined, and the proposition that can judge the characteristics of the long-term changing trend of the elderly population is put forward. Then, based on the census population data of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2008, using Granger (Granger) causality test and Johnson (Johansen) cointegration test, we find out the variables that affect the total population or the number of the elderly population and set up the population system. On the basis of population system, several vector autoregressive models were established, and four different control schemes were established for average life expectancy, interprovincial net migration and total fertility rate after various statistical tests were carried out on the model. The total population and the elderly population of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2050 are predicted respectively. Finally, according to the predicted total population and the number of the elderly population to calculate the aging coefficient, the change trend of the total population, the number of the elderly population and the coefficient of aging is analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the government to deal with the aging of the population are put forward in combination with the forecast results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C924.24

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