人口空間要素與綠色發(fā)展空間的反饋機制研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-30 07:26
【摘要】：人類文明經(jīng)歷了漫長的原始文明、農(nóng)業(yè)文明之后,于18世紀進入了輝煌的工業(yè)文明。上世紀中葉至今,人類已邁進生態(tài)文明時代,它是人與人、人與自然、人與社會和諧共生、良性循環(huán)、全面可持續(xù)發(fā)展為目標的新的社會形態(tài)。十八大以后,黨中央國務院高度重視生態(tài)文明建設,提出了一系列改革意見,而綠色發(fā)展是生態(tài)文明建設的應有之義,也是時代的潮流。在經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展中,由于對資源的過度開發(fā)和消耗,以及對環(huán)境的破壞,資源環(huán)境承載力已進入超負荷狀態(tài),在這種情況下,如何保證經(jīng)濟社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展,是我們面對的難題。在此背景下,依賴科技進步,提高資源利用效率是最有效的解決路徑,而人是一種生產(chǎn)要素,作為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的資源要素,也是綠色發(fā)展中的重要要素,其參與了生產(chǎn)過程,是推動科技進步的核心力量。目前,在綠色發(fā)展的理念下,人口要素對綠色發(fā)展的影響機制并不明確,因此,有必要研究人這一重要要素在綠色發(fā)展中的作用,從而更好地推動綠色發(fā)展。而明確人口在綠色發(fā)展中的驅(qū)動作用,實質(zhì)上就是從空間的角度研究人口空間分布與綠色發(fā)展空間的關(guān)系,其需要對人口在空間的不同屬性結(jié)構(gòu)進行細致的刻畫與分析。本文梳理了綠色發(fā)展的研究成果。從水文保護、綠色保護、文物保護、地質(zhì)災害保護和環(huán)境保護這五個角度,運用系統(tǒng)論、可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論和生態(tài)文明建設理論對綠色發(fā)展空間進行刻畫,并構(gòu)建包括9大類21小類要素的綠色發(fā)展空間指標體系。在此基礎上,應用地理信息方法與空間分析技術(shù),量化指標轉(zhuǎn)化為不同類型的綠色發(fā)展空間格局;梳理了人口資源的研究成果,將人口要素劃分為資源型人口和創(chuàng)新型人口,并在GIS計算方法的支撐下,獲得兩大類人口空間要素的分布格局。最后,采用多元logistic回歸模型,構(gòu)建人口空間要素與綠色發(fā)展空間的反饋方程及反饋機制。論文以成都市作為研究對象,通過實施上述研究方法,得到如下研究結(jié)論:(1)創(chuàng)新型人口的增加,提高了建設用地的利用效率和潛力,導致土地需求下降。通過創(chuàng)新型人口的增長,在保持經(jīng)濟變量不變的情況下,綠色發(fā)展空間中承載人口的適宜建設區(qū)面積明顯減少,創(chuàng)新型人口增加與傳統(tǒng)資源型增加提升相比,前者驅(qū)動的綠色發(fā)展空間格局承載的人口密度顯著提升。(2)創(chuàng)新型人口的增長對綠色發(fā)展具有正向激勵作用;其適宜建設區(qū)面積大幅度減少,建設用地利用效率增加,限建空間和禁建空間得到有效的保護。傳統(tǒng)資源型人口的增加對綠色發(fā)展具有負面激勵作用。其適宜建設區(qū)面積大幅度增加,適度建設區(qū)面積顯著減少,極大的占用了區(qū)域未來潛在的利用空間。(3)本文在方法上,建立了一套基于全空間尺度下的要素表達、格局劃分、成因反饋的分析框架,為分析人與綠色發(fā)展空間之間的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系提供了有效的實施路徑。
[Abstract]:Human civilization experienced a long primitive civilization, agricultural civilization, in the 18 th century into a brilliant industrial civilization. Since the middle of last century, mankind has stepped into the era of ecological civilization. It is a new social form, which is a harmonious symbiosis between man and man, man and nature, man and society, virtuous circle and comprehensive sustainable development. After the 18th National Congress, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to the construction of ecological civilization, put forward a series of reform opinions, and green development is the proper meaning of the construction of ecological civilization, but also the trend of the times. In the economic and social development, due to the over-exploitation and consumption of resources and the destruction of the environment, the carrying capacity of the resources and environment has entered into a state of overload. In this case, how to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and society, Is the problem we face. In this context, depending on the progress of science and technology, improving the efficiency of resource utilization is the most effective way to solve the problem. Human is a kind of production factor. As a resource element of economic development, it is also an important factor in green development, and it participates in the production process. It is the core force to promote the progress of science and technology. At present, under the concept of green development, the influence mechanism of population factors on green development is not clear. Therefore, it is necessary to study the role of human as an important factor in green development so as to promote green development better. To clarify the driving role of population in green development is essentially to study the relationship between population spatial distribution and green development space from the perspective of space, which needs to describe and analyze the different attribute structure of population in space. This article combs the research achievement of green development. From the five angles of hydrological protection, green protection, cultural relic protection, geological hazard protection and environmental protection, this paper describes the green development space by using the system theory, the theory of sustainable development and the theory of ecological civilization construction. And construct the spatial index system of green development including 9 categories and 21 subcategories. On this basis, applying the method of geographic information and spatial analysis, the quantitative indexes are transformed into different types of spatial pattern of green development, and the research results of population resources are combed, and the population elements are divided into resource-based population and innovative population. Under the support of GIS calculation method, the distribution pattern of two kinds of population spatial elements is obtained. Finally, the multivariate logistic regression model is used to construct the feedback equation and feedback mechanism between population spatial elements and green development space. This paper takes Chengdu as the research object, through the implementation of the above research methods, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) the increase of innovative population improves the efficiency and potential of construction land use, and leads to the decline of land demand. With the growth of innovative population and keeping the economic variables unchanged, the area of the suitable construction area for carrying population in the green development space is obviously reduced, and the increase of innovative population is compared with the increase of traditional resource type. The population density of the spatial pattern of green development driven by the former is significantly increased. (2) the growth of innovative population has a positive effect on green development, and the area of the suitable construction area is greatly reduced, and the efficiency of land use for construction is increased. Restricted space and forbidden space are effectively protected. The increase of the traditional resource type population has the negative incentive function to the green development. The area of the suitable construction area is greatly increased and the area of the moderate construction area is significantly reduced, which greatly occupies the potential utilization space of the region in the future. (3) in this paper, a set of elements representation and pattern division based on the whole spatial scale are established in this paper. The analysis framework of cause feedback provides an effective way to analyze the harmonious relationship between human and green development space.
【學位授予單位】：四川師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2;F124.5
本文編號：2154272
[Abstract]:Human civilization experienced a long primitive civilization, agricultural civilization, in the 18 th century into a brilliant industrial civilization. Since the middle of last century, mankind has stepped into the era of ecological civilization. It is a new social form, which is a harmonious symbiosis between man and man, man and nature, man and society, virtuous circle and comprehensive sustainable development. After the 18th National Congress, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to the construction of ecological civilization, put forward a series of reform opinions, and green development is the proper meaning of the construction of ecological civilization, but also the trend of the times. In the economic and social development, due to the over-exploitation and consumption of resources and the destruction of the environment, the carrying capacity of the resources and environment has entered into a state of overload. In this case, how to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and society, Is the problem we face. In this context, depending on the progress of science and technology, improving the efficiency of resource utilization is the most effective way to solve the problem. Human is a kind of production factor. As a resource element of economic development, it is also an important factor in green development, and it participates in the production process. It is the core force to promote the progress of science and technology. At present, under the concept of green development, the influence mechanism of population factors on green development is not clear. Therefore, it is necessary to study the role of human as an important factor in green development so as to promote green development better. To clarify the driving role of population in green development is essentially to study the relationship between population spatial distribution and green development space from the perspective of space, which needs to describe and analyze the different attribute structure of population in space. This article combs the research achievement of green development. From the five angles of hydrological protection, green protection, cultural relic protection, geological hazard protection and environmental protection, this paper describes the green development space by using the system theory, the theory of sustainable development and the theory of ecological civilization construction. And construct the spatial index system of green development including 9 categories and 21 subcategories. On this basis, applying the method of geographic information and spatial analysis, the quantitative indexes are transformed into different types of spatial pattern of green development, and the research results of population resources are combed, and the population elements are divided into resource-based population and innovative population. Under the support of GIS calculation method, the distribution pattern of two kinds of population spatial elements is obtained. Finally, the multivariate logistic regression model is used to construct the feedback equation and feedback mechanism between population spatial elements and green development space. This paper takes Chengdu as the research object, through the implementation of the above research methods, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) the increase of innovative population improves the efficiency and potential of construction land use, and leads to the decline of land demand. With the growth of innovative population and keeping the economic variables unchanged, the area of the suitable construction area for carrying population in the green development space is obviously reduced, and the increase of innovative population is compared with the increase of traditional resource type. The population density of the spatial pattern of green development driven by the former is significantly increased. (2) the growth of innovative population has a positive effect on green development, and the area of the suitable construction area is greatly reduced, and the efficiency of land use for construction is increased. Restricted space and forbidden space are effectively protected. The increase of the traditional resource type population has the negative incentive function to the green development. The area of the suitable construction area is greatly increased and the area of the moderate construction area is significantly reduced, which greatly occupies the potential utilization space of the region in the future. (3) in this paper, a set of elements representation and pattern division based on the whole spatial scale are established in this paper. The analysis framework of cause feedback provides an effective way to analyze the harmonious relationship between human and green development space.
【學位授予單位】：四川師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2;F124.5
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