2010-2050中國勞動力供求趨勢研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-24 16:27
【摘要】：我國自上世紀(jì)70年代初開始實行計劃生育政策以來,伴隨著經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展,人口態(tài)勢和勞動力供求狀況均發(fā)生了重大轉(zhuǎn)變。本文從人口態(tài)勢變化的視角出發(fā),在回顧了勞動力供求的歷史及現(xiàn)有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)之上,對未來四十年我國的勞動力供求變化發(fā)展趨勢作了分析和預(yù)測。得到以下的結(jié)論： 一是中國總?cè)丝谠鲩L已近尾聲。中國總?cè)丝诘姆屙?025年前后抵達(dá),中國人口增長已近尾聲。中國人口峰頂?shù)絹淼臅r間早于預(yù)期,峰頂時的人口規(guī)模小于預(yù)期,抵達(dá)峰頂后掉頭向下的速度也超過預(yù)期。 二是中國勞動適齡人口的頂峰已經(jīng)到來。中國正處在勞動年齡人口和經(jīng)濟活動人口最多的時期,勞動適齡人口頂峰已經(jīng)降臨。2020年后中國勞動適齡人口規(guī)模的持續(xù)快速下降將不可避免。不僅如此,勞動年齡人口占總?cè)丝诒壤龑⒖焖傧陆?勞動適齡人口內(nèi)部的老化將愈演愈烈。 三是中國勞動參與率將持續(xù)下降。自改革開放以來,中國的勞動力參與率一直處于高位狀態(tài),到上個世紀(jì)90年代初期開始呈緩慢下降的發(fā)展趨勢。 四是中國目前勞動力市場供需平衡。目前我國勞動力市場的供求總體上基本平衡,但是在部分地區(qū)、部分行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了一定程度上的“用工荒”現(xiàn)象,這種現(xiàn)象總體而言是一種結(jié)構(gòu)性的短缺,和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及人力資源培養(yǎng)不適應(yīng)市場需求等有一定的關(guān)系。 五是中國勞動力市場供需形勢正在發(fā)生根本性的逆轉(zhuǎn)。中國今后的經(jīng)濟增長模式勢必要擺脫依靠低成本、高投入的勞動密集型和資源密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)以維持產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力的方式,而是應(yīng)逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變到依靠提高技術(shù)水平和加大人力資本投入的模式上來。 在得到以上結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,為更好地應(yīng)對我國人口轉(zhuǎn)變和勞動力供給變化,本文提出幾點建議：(1)調(diào)整生育政策,維持人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力；(2)鼓勵勞動參與,緩解未來勞動力短缺矛盾；(3)消除各種制度障礙,促進勞動力自由流動；(4)建立統(tǒng)一的勞動力市場,提高勞動力配置效率；(5)加強就業(yè)服務(wù)體系建設(shè)。 我國勞動力數(shù)量龐大、城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)突出,已有的研究在勞動力供求量和勞動力結(jié)構(gòu)方面依舊存在較多爭議,部分推算和預(yù)測的方法可能還需改進。本文就何謂剩余勞動力、中國農(nóng)村以往勞動力為何巨大過剩、農(nóng)村流動和轉(zhuǎn)移出來的都是剩余勞動力、農(nóng)村剩余勞動力究竟數(shù)量上有多少等問題做出嘗試性的回答。 最后,本文認(rèn)為,勞動力供給缺口的不斷增大,將對我國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重大影響：將推動經(jīng)濟增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變；促進收入分配形勢改善；推動區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的平衡發(fā)展。此外,勞動力短缺還將對抬高我國的創(chuàng)業(yè)門檻、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化乃至民族的興衰以及世界范圍內(nèi)的通貨膨脹、世界價格體系的重新定位等產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of family planning policy in the early 1970s, with the development of economy and society, the situation of population and labor supply and demand has changed greatly. Based on the review of the history of labor supply and demand and the existing research results, this paper analyzes and forecasts the development trend of labor supply and demand in China in the next forty years from the perspective of the change of population situation. Draw the following conclusions: first, China's total population growth has come to an end. The peak of China's total population reached around 2025, and China's population growth is nearing its end. China's population peak arrived earlier than expected, with a smaller than expected population at the peak and a faster turn down than expected when it reached the peak. Second, the peak of China's working age population has arrived. China is in the period of working age population and economic activity population, the peak of working-age population has already come, and the continuous and rapid decline of China's working-age population after 2020 will be inevitable. Moreover, the proportion of working-age population to the total population will decline rapidly, and the internal aging of working-age population will intensify. Third, China's labor force participation rate will continue to decline. Since the reform and opening up, China's labor force participation rate has been in a high state, until the early 1990s began to show a slow decline in the development trend. Fourth, China's current labor market supply and demand balance. At present, the supply and demand of China's labor market are basically balanced, but in some regions, some industries have to a certain extent "shortage of workers" phenomenon, this phenomenon in general is a structural shortage. And industrial structure and human resources training do not adapt to market demand and so on. Fifth, the supply and demand situation of China's labor market is undergoing a fundamental reversal. In the future, China's economic growth model is bound to get rid of the labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries that rely on low cost and high input in order to maintain industrial competitiveness. Instead, it should be gradually changed to rely on improving the level of technology and increasing investment in human capital. On the basis of the above conclusions, in order to better deal with the changes of population and labor supply in China, this paper puts forward several suggestions: (1) adjusting the fertility policy to maintain the ability of sustainable development of population; (2) encouraging labor participation. To alleviate the contradiction of labor shortage in the future; (3) to eliminate various institutional obstacles and promote the free flow of labor force; (4) to establish a unified labor market and improve the efficiency of labor allocation; (5) to strengthen the construction of employment service system. The quantity of labor force in our country is huge and the dual structure of urban and rural areas is prominent. There are still many controversies in the quantity of labor supply and demand and the structure of labor force, and some methods of calculation and prediction may still need to be improved. This paper gives a tentative answer to the question of what is surplus labor force, why there was a huge surplus of labor force in rural areas in the past, how many surplus labor forces are floating and transferring out of rural areas, and how many rural surplus labors there are. Finally, this paper holds that the increasing gap of labor supply will have a great impact on the economic development of our country: it will promote the transformation of economic growth mode, promote the improvement of income distribution situation, and promote the balanced development of regional economy. In addition, the shortage of labor force will also have a profound impact on raising the threshold of entrepreneurship, optimizing the industrial structure and even the rise and fall of the nation, inflation in the world and the repositioning of the world price system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C92-05;F249.2
本文編號：2141961
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of family planning policy in the early 1970s, with the development of economy and society, the situation of population and labor supply and demand has changed greatly. Based on the review of the history of labor supply and demand and the existing research results, this paper analyzes and forecasts the development trend of labor supply and demand in China in the next forty years from the perspective of the change of population situation. Draw the following conclusions: first, China's total population growth has come to an end. The peak of China's total population reached around 2025, and China's population growth is nearing its end. China's population peak arrived earlier than expected, with a smaller than expected population at the peak and a faster turn down than expected when it reached the peak. Second, the peak of China's working age population has arrived. China is in the period of working age population and economic activity population, the peak of working-age population has already come, and the continuous and rapid decline of China's working-age population after 2020 will be inevitable. Moreover, the proportion of working-age population to the total population will decline rapidly, and the internal aging of working-age population will intensify. Third, China's labor force participation rate will continue to decline. Since the reform and opening up, China's labor force participation rate has been in a high state, until the early 1990s began to show a slow decline in the development trend. Fourth, China's current labor market supply and demand balance. At present, the supply and demand of China's labor market are basically balanced, but in some regions, some industries have to a certain extent "shortage of workers" phenomenon, this phenomenon in general is a structural shortage. And industrial structure and human resources training do not adapt to market demand and so on. Fifth, the supply and demand situation of China's labor market is undergoing a fundamental reversal. In the future, China's economic growth model is bound to get rid of the labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries that rely on low cost and high input in order to maintain industrial competitiveness. Instead, it should be gradually changed to rely on improving the level of technology and increasing investment in human capital. On the basis of the above conclusions, in order to better deal with the changes of population and labor supply in China, this paper puts forward several suggestions: (1) adjusting the fertility policy to maintain the ability of sustainable development of population; (2) encouraging labor participation. To alleviate the contradiction of labor shortage in the future; (3) to eliminate various institutional obstacles and promote the free flow of labor force; (4) to establish a unified labor market and improve the efficiency of labor allocation; (5) to strengthen the construction of employment service system. The quantity of labor force in our country is huge and the dual structure of urban and rural areas is prominent. There are still many controversies in the quantity of labor supply and demand and the structure of labor force, and some methods of calculation and prediction may still need to be improved. This paper gives a tentative answer to the question of what is surplus labor force, why there was a huge surplus of labor force in rural areas in the past, how many surplus labor forces are floating and transferring out of rural areas, and how many rural surplus labors there are. Finally, this paper holds that the increasing gap of labor supply will have a great impact on the economic development of our country: it will promote the transformation of economic growth mode, promote the improvement of income distribution situation, and promote the balanced development of regional economy. In addition, the shortage of labor force will also have a profound impact on raising the threshold of entrepreneurship, optimizing the industrial structure and even the rise and fall of the nation, inflation in the world and the repositioning of the world price system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C92-05;F249.2
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，本文編號：2141961
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