【摘要】： 經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展總是和國(guó)民需求有很大關(guān)系,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展與國(guó)民需求也息息相關(guān),影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的因素是多樣的,如:經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)政策的制定、城市化進(jìn)程、人均居住面積、居民的消費(fèi)支出水平、人口因素、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、開(kāi)發(fā)成本、土地資源的供給等。在眾多因素中,經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)等因素的變化規(guī)律相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)不易掌握,而人口變動(dòng)的規(guī)律性則相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。同時(shí),人口因素也是影響住房需求的內(nèi)在因素,了解人口的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),才能了解未來(lái)住房?jī)?nèi)在需求的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。因此,人口因素是影響住房需求的重要方面,關(guān)注人口因素對(duì)引導(dǎo)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)良性發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文以西安市作為研究對(duì)象,致力于從人口因素的角度研究西安市住房需求的變化規(guī)律。首先,利用西安第五次人口普查統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)、西安市統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒數(shù)據(jù)和問(wèn)卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)人口與住房需求之間進(jìn)行定性分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)二者之間存在高度相關(guān)的關(guān)系,說(shuō)明從人口的角度研究住房需求具有一定科學(xué)性。其次,運(yùn)用人口統(tǒng)計(jì)分析技術(shù)建立模型,預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)十年的人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化,包括人口規(guī)模、家庭戶(hù)數(shù)、家庭規(guī)模和家庭類(lèi)型。然后,通過(guò)人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化對(duì)住房需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),分析未來(lái)住房需求變化趨勢(shì)。得到以下結(jié)論:西安市人口規(guī)模將不斷膨脹,家庭戶(hù)數(shù)增多,未來(lái)十年住房剛性需求旺盛;家庭呈小型化和簡(jiǎn)單化趨勢(shì),中小戶(hù)型住房將成為住房需求的主流;潛在住房需求將增加。 最后,針對(duì)結(jié)論,為西安市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的規(guī)劃和發(fā)展提出對(duì)策和建議:合理控制住房的開(kāi)發(fā)總量;增加中小戶(hù)型住房的開(kāi)發(fā)比例;政府積極發(fā)揮住房資源調(diào)節(jié)職能。
[Abstract]:The development of economy and society is always related to the national demand, and the development of real estate industry is closely related to the national demand. The factors influencing the real estate market are various, such as the speed of economic growth, the formulation of economic and social policies, Urbanization, per capita living area, consumption expenditure level, population factor, real estate price, development cost, supply of land resources, etc. Among many factors, the law of change of economic and social factors is relatively difficult to grasp, while the regularity of population change is relatively stable. At the same time, the population factor is also the internal factor that affects the housing demand, only by understanding the changing trend of the population, can we understand the change trend of the future housing intrinsic demand. Therefore, population factor is an important aspect affecting housing demand. It is of great significance to pay attention to population factor to guide the healthy development of real estate industry. Taking Xi'an as the object of study, this paper is devoted to studying the changing law of housing demand in Xi'an from the point of view of population factors. First of all, using Xi'an fifth census statistical data, Xi'an statistical yearbook data and questionnaire survey data, the qualitative analysis of the population and housing demand, found that there is a high correlation between the two. It shows that it is scientific to study housing demand from the point of view of population. Secondly, using demographic analysis technology to establish a model to predict the population structure changes in the next ten years, including population size, household size, family size and family type. Then, the change of population structure is used to predict the housing demand, and the change trend of housing demand in the future is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: the population of Xi'an will expand continuously, the number of households will increase, the rigid demand for housing will be exuberant in the next ten years, the family will be miniaturized and simplified, and small and medium-sized housing will become the mainstream of housing demand; Potential housing demand will increase. Finally, in view of the conclusion, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the planning and development of real estate industry in Xi'an: reasonable control of the total amount of housing development, increasing the proportion of the development of small and medium-sized housing units, and the government actively exerting the function of housing resources regulation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.25

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 馬智利;朱艷杰;;基于人口結(jié)構(gòu)視角的重慶公租房配置需求研究[J];現(xiàn)代城市研究;2013年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 黃芮;多元化生活模式下西安市超小套型住宅研究[D];西安建筑科技大學(xué);2011年

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本文編號(hào)：2121624