本文選題：人口預(yù)測 + MATLAB　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文是采用MATLAB仿真計(jì)算平臺(tái)對(duì)人口預(yù)測的應(yīng)用問題所進(jìn)行的一些研究,其研究工作基礎(chǔ)與研究背景源自本人承擔(dān)的2010年浙江省教育廳科研課題項(xiàng)目《基于MATLAB仿真預(yù)測模型及犯罪數(shù)量實(shí)測研究》的前期工作、2009年浙江警官職業(yè)學(xué)院科研課題項(xiàng)目《基于MATLAB曲線擬合分析研究》與《基于MATLAB人口預(yù)測分析研究》以及多年來從事《數(shù)學(xué)實(shí)驗(yàn)》的教學(xué)工作。相關(guān)的研究成果已發(fā)表于吉林師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版,2010年5月)及微計(jì)算機(jī)信息學(xué)報(bào)(2010年8月) 本論文的研究成果主要包括： 采用MATLAB軟件仿真實(shí)測出近期人口預(yù)測模型：以MATLAB仿真計(jì)算平臺(tái),以中國1990-2008年歷年人口統(tǒng)計(jì)資料為數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境,仿真實(shí)測出了適于近期人口預(yù)測的簡潔高效的多項(xiàng)式模型與傅立葉級(jí)數(shù)模型。依照預(yù)測時(shí)間的不同,從多個(gè)角度探討了近期預(yù)測模型的準(zhǔn)確度,進(jìn)而得到了具有較高準(zhǔn)確度的近期人口預(yù)測模型。 改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)LOGISTIC人口預(yù)測模型的相關(guān)參數(shù)：以往傳統(tǒng)的中遠(yuǎn)期人口預(yù)測模型多引自于荷蘭學(xué)者Verhaus提出的LOGISTIC模型,其數(shù)理上的人口總量并非一個(gè)無限增長的數(shù)學(xué)過程,內(nèi)含的人口阻滯作用將使人口達(dá)到飽和而最終趨于常量,但人口預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確度取決于如何選取模型及待定參數(shù)。為解決這個(gè)問題,本文采用MATLAB仿真計(jì)算平臺(tái)進(jìn)行了實(shí)測分析與研究,對(duì)LOGISTIC人口預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行了泛化式改進(jìn),獲得了與其它文獻(xiàn)不同的人口環(huán)境容納量。由本文完成的MATLAB仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,改進(jìn)后的LOGISTIC人口預(yù)測模型準(zhǔn)確度明顯提高,預(yù)測的平均相對(duì)誤差由4.485%降低為0.606%,對(duì)LOGISTIC模型預(yù)測值再次修正后,預(yù)測的最大相對(duì)誤差由1.30%降低為0.38%,其精度較好滿足中遠(yuǎn)期人口預(yù)測的要求。 依所建立的LESLIE模型編程實(shí)測而獲取了人口結(jié)構(gòu)的重要數(shù)據(jù)：以66歲及以上為老年人口這個(gè)新的界定標(biāo)準(zhǔn),得出了50年間各年齡段的人口數(shù)量,并進(jìn)一步修正了LESLIE模型的預(yù)測誤差,提高了近期人口預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確度。本文編程實(shí)測所獲取的人口結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)表明,未來50年中國人口扶養(yǎng)比攀升加快,僅基于2001年8.11%的中國人口扶養(yǎng)比進(jìn)行預(yù)測,中國人口扶養(yǎng)比在2042年將增至32.06%,可能提前顯現(xiàn)發(fā)達(dá)國家的人口結(jié)構(gòu),將給人均資源匱乏的中國社會(huì)造成沉重的負(fù)擔(dān)。
[Abstract]:In this paper, some researches on the application of population forecasting are carried out by using MATLAB simulation and calculation platform. The foundation and background of its research work come from the preliminary work of the 2010 Zhejiang Provincial Education Department Scientific Research Project "Simulation and Prediction Model based on MATLAB and the Measurement of Crime quantity", and the 2009 Zhejiang Police officers Vocational College scientific research. The subject items "the Analysis and Analysis of Curve fitting based on MATLAB" and "the Analysis of population Prediction based on MATLAB" and the Teaching work of "Mathematical experiment" for many years. The related research results have been published in the Journal of Jilin normal University (Natural Science, May 2010) and the Journal of Microcomputer Information (August 2010). Port prediction model: MATLAB simulation calculation platform, Based on the demographic data from 1990 to 2008 in China, a simple and efficient polynomial model and Fourier series model suitable for the recent population prediction have been simulated and measured. According to the different prediction time, the accuracy of the short-term prediction model is discussed from several angles. Furthermore, the recent population forecasting model with high accuracy is obtained, and the parameters of the traditional LOGISTIC population forecasting model are improved: the traditional medium-long term population forecasting model is derived from the LOGISTIC model proposed by Verhaus, a Dutch scholar. The mathematical total population is not a mathematical process of infinite growth. The population blocking effect will make the population saturation and eventually tend to be constant, but the accuracy of population prediction depends on how to select the model and the parameters to be determined. In order to solve this problem, this paper uses MATLAB simulation calculation platform to carry on the actual measurement analysis and the research, has carried on the generalized improvement to the LOGISTIC population forecast model, has obtained the population environment capacity which is different from the other literature. The result of MATLAB simulation shows that the accuracy of the improved LOGISTIC population prediction model is obviously improved, the average relative error of the prediction is reduced from 4.485% to 0.606, and the prediction value of the LOGISTIC model is revised again. The maximum relative error of forecast is reduced from 1.30% to 0.38, and its precision is good to meet the requirement of medium and long term population forecast. The important data of population structure are obtained according to the established Leslie model, which is the elderly population aged 66 and above. This new definition standard, The population size of each age group in the past 50 years is obtained and the prediction error of Leslie model is further corrected to improve the accuracy of population prediction in the near future. The population structure data obtained by programming and measuring in this paper show that the population dependency ratio of China will increase rapidly in the next 50 years, only based on the forecast of 8.11% of the population dependency ratio in 2001. China's population dependency ratio will increase to 32.06 in 2042, which may show the population structure of developed countries ahead of time, and will impose a heavy burden on the Chinese society, where per capita resources are scarce.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：C921

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 林寬;;基于分組人口模型對(duì)廣東省城鎮(zhèn)老齡人口的預(yù)測[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2012年13期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 劉琳;二氧化硫?qū)λ軞嗦菲鬟B接端子電接觸性能影響的研究[D];河北工業(yè)大學(xué);2012年

2 靳欣;外流趨勢下生態(tài)脆弱地區(qū)人口系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性研究[D];蘭州大學(xué);2013年

3 宋佩鋒;人口預(yù)測方法比較研究[D];安徽大學(xué);2013年

，

本文編號(hào)：2004212