發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-05 02:17

  本文選題：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) + 少兒撫養(yǎng)比��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的中期,隨著市場(chǎng)化、城市化和科學(xué)技術(shù)的不斷發(fā)展,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得了飛速發(fā)展,然而在經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率卻呈現(xiàn)出長(zhǎng)期的下降趨勢(shì)。居民消費(fèi)率過(guò)低導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)有效消費(fèi)需求不足,則可能影響我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文以人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)為視角,對(duì)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了理論和實(shí)證上的研究,借鑒消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論中的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo),構(gòu)建引入人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量的居民消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型,利用我國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)等解釋變量的宏觀面板數(shù)據(jù)和時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。 傳統(tǒng)上,人們習(xí)慣于用收入的變化來(lái)解釋居民消費(fèi)行為,比如凱恩斯的絕對(duì)收入模型和佛里德曼的持久收入模型,然而這些模型都忽略了人口年齡特征這一重要的人口結(jié)構(gòu)因素對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響。那么人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系究竟是怎樣的?上世紀(jì)80年代以后我國(guó)的高增長(zhǎng)率是不是直接或間接由人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變化導(dǎo)致的?人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)在居民消費(fèi)中究竟扮演著怎樣的角色?對(duì)這些問(wèn)題的研究將對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)從投資驅(qū)動(dòng)型和出口驅(qū)動(dòng)型向消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式轉(zhuǎn)變,保持我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展具有積極的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,對(duì)于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和人口政策的制定具有重要的理論價(jià)值。 從人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)視角分析我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率問(wèn)題有助于我們從宏觀角度分析人口老齡化對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的影響。人口老齡化通過(guò)對(duì)微觀家庭消費(fèi)影響的綜合效應(yīng),在宏觀層面上對(duì)整個(gè)社會(huì)的消費(fèi)與儲(chǔ)蓄產(chǎn)生影響,進(jìn)而對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)家國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行產(chǎn)生影響。隨著我國(guó)老齡化不斷加劇以及老年人口數(shù)量的急劇增多,必然會(huì)影響我國(guó)總儲(chǔ)蓄量與總消費(fèi)量的變動(dòng),進(jìn)而影響我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)。因此,本文的研究可以作為制定未來(lái)人口政策和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的參考,也可以更好地分析經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、人口變動(dòng)與消費(fèi)和儲(chǔ)蓄之間的關(guān)系,把握它們內(nèi)在的發(fā)展規(guī)律,對(duì)于保持我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有極強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外消費(fèi)函數(shù)研究成果以及有關(guān)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與消費(fèi)關(guān)系的理論文獻(xiàn)與經(jīng)驗(yàn)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理、綜述,比較分析了各種消費(fèi)行為假說(shuō)的異同和消費(fèi)函數(shù)之間的差異,從中得到后續(xù)研究展開(kāi)的理論和技術(shù)支持；其次概括了建國(guó)以來(lái)我國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的歷史演變過(guò)程、原因、特點(diǎn),以及所面臨的人口老齡化的挑戰(zhàn)。并從縱向歷史對(duì)比與橫向國(guó)際比較兩個(gè)維度分析我國(guó)居民低消費(fèi)率的現(xiàn)狀,主要運(yùn)用相關(guān)圖表、數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了翔實(shí)的描述、說(shuō)明,得出我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率偏低的結(jié)論；隨后從居民收入占比與居民消費(fèi)傾向兩個(gè)角度分析了影響我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率的因素,得出人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是影響居民消費(fèi)的因素之一。接著著重分析了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)影響居民消費(fèi)的作用機(jī)理以及具體途徑,并對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與居民消費(fèi)行為的經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究進(jìn)行了論述；然后對(duì)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)和居民消費(fèi)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究：包括本文中消費(fèi)者行為假定,納入人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量的中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型的構(gòu)建,運(yùn)用中國(guó)2000-2009年省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù),分別對(duì)全國(guó)層面、分區(qū)域?qū)用嬷袊?guó)居民消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。實(shí)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),人口結(jié)構(gòu)因素對(duì)居民消費(fèi)率有著顯著的影響,其中,少兒撫養(yǎng)比、老年撫養(yǎng)比與居民消費(fèi)率之間分別存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系和負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。然而,在單獨(dú)對(duì)東、中、西部地區(qū)的研究中卻發(fā)現(xiàn),撫養(yǎng)比與居民消費(fèi)率的關(guān)系并不與全國(guó)保持一致,這些差別反映了區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展差距以及不同地區(qū)老齡化程度的差異�？紤]到人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量要在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)才具有足夠的離散度,本文還運(yùn)用協(xié)整理論,對(duì)中國(guó)1978-2009年宏觀時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量與居民消費(fèi)率之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,揭示了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量與居民消費(fèi)率之間的長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系。格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)表明,人口撫養(yǎng)比與居民消費(fèi)率之間存在單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步考察了少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比沖擊各自對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)老年撫養(yǎng)比的沖擊對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)率的影響更大；最后根據(jù)實(shí)證研究結(jié)果,全面總結(jié)了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對(duì)于中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)的影響,并提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,同時(shí)對(duì)論文存在的不足和進(jìn)一步的研究方向進(jìn)行說(shuō)明和展望。
[Abstract]:China has entered the middle period of economic transformation. With the continuous development of market, urbanization and science and technology, China's economy has achieved rapid development. However, while the economy is increasing rapidly, the consumption rate of our residents has been declining in the long run. The low consumption rate of residents may affect the shortage of domestic effective consumption, which may affect me. From the perspective of population age structure, this paper makes a theoretical and Empirical Study on the relationship between population age structure changes and residents' consumption, and draws on the population age structure index in the theory of consumer economics and constructs a resident consumption function model which introduces population age structure variables to make use of the population age of our country. Macroscopical panel data and time series data of explanatory variables are used to test the model.
Traditionally, people are accustomed to using income changes to explain consumer behavior, such as Keynes's absolute income model and the Buddha Redman's persistent income model. However, these models all ignore the influence of population age characteristics on consumption by the important demographic factors. What is it? Is our country's high growth rate directly or indirectly caused by the changes in the population age structure after the 80s of last century? What role does the population age structure change in the consumption of the population? The change of the economic growth mode, maintaining the sustained and stable development of our country's economy has positive practical significance, and has important theoretical value for the formulation of China's economic policy and population policy.
From the perspective of population age structure, the analysis of the consumption rate of residents in China will help us to analyze the impact of population aging on the future economic operation of China from a macro perspective. By the comprehensive effect on the micro family consumption, the aging of population affects the consumption and savings of the whole society at the macro level, and then to the whole country. The movement of the national economy has an impact. With the increasing aging of our country and the rapid increase in the number of the elderly population, it will inevitably affect the changes in the total savings and total consumption in China, and then affect the situation of our macroeconomic development. Therefore, this study can be used as a reference for the formulation of future population policies and economic policies, as well as in the future. To better analyze the economic growth, the relationship between the population change and the consumption and the savings, and to grasp the inherent law of development are of great practical significance for maintaining the sustainable development of our country's economy.
This paper first reviews the research results of consumption function at home and abroad as well as the theoretical literature and empirical literature on the age structure and consumption relationship of population, summarizes the similarities and differences of various consumption behavior hypotheses and the differences between consumption functions, and gets the theoretical and technical support from the following research. Secondly, it summarizes the construction of the theory and technology. The historical evolution process of the population age structure transformation in China, the reasons, the characteristics, and the challenges facing the aging of the population, and analyzing the current situation of the low consumption rate of our residents from the two dimensions of vertical historical comparison and horizontal international comparison, mainly using the related charts, and the full and accurate data on the current situation of the consumption rate of our residents. The conclusion is that the consumption rate of our residents is low, and then the factors that affect the consumption rate of residents in China are analyzed from the two angles of the residents' income and the tendency of residents' consumption, and it is concluded that the changes in the population age structure are one of the factors that affect the consumption of the residents. The mechanism of action and specific ways are discussed, and the empirical research on population age structure and consumption behavior is discussed at home and abroad. Then, the empirical study on the relationship between population age structure changes and residents' consumption is carried out, including the consumer behavior hypothesis in this paper and the Chinese resident consumption function of the population age structure variables. The model is constructed, using the provincial panel data of 2000-2009 years in China to verify the Chinese consumption function model at the national level and the regional level respectively. The empirical results show that the demographic factors have a significant impact on the consumption rate of the residents, among them, there is a positive correlation between the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio and the consumption rate of residents respectively. However, in a separate study of East, middle and western regions, it is found that the relationship between the dependency ratio and the consumption rate is not consistent with the country. These differences reflect the gap between the economic and social development and the difference in the degree of aging in different regions. In this paper, we also use cointegration theory to make an empirical test on China's 1978-2009 year macro time series data. The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the population age structure variable and the consumption rate, which reveals the long-term equilibrium relationship between the population age structure variables and the consumption rate of residents. The Jay causality test shows that there is a one-way Grainger causality between the population dependency ratio and the resident consumption rate. On this basis, the influence of the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio on the consumption rate of our residents is further investigated, and the impact of the impact of the elderly dependency ratio on the consumption rate of our residents is greater; finally, the effect of the impact on the consumption rate of China's residents is found. The results of the empirical study comprehensively summarize the impact of population age structure changes on the consumption of Chinese residents, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations, at the same time, the shortcomings of the paper and further research direction are explained and prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F126.1;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 吳海江;何凌霄;張忠根;;中國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)差距:2000~2011[J];山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2013年10期

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本文編號(hào)：1979990