本文選題：人口機會窗口 + 人口紅利��； 參考：《中國人口科學》2017年06期

【摘要】：人口紅利是建立在人口機會窗口上的經(jīng)濟學概念。收獲人口紅利的前提條件是有利于經(jīng)濟增長的人口機會,充分必要條件是與人口機會相適應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展政策。人口紅利有數(shù)量型和質(zhì)量型之分,前者以人力資源優(yōu)勢為基礎(chǔ),后者以人力資本為基礎(chǔ),二者的周期必有重疊,收獲質(zhì)量型人口紅利的潛力更大且更具可持續(xù)性。依據(jù)人口發(fā)展規(guī)律,21世紀上半葉,中國人口快速老齡化與勞動年齡人口數(shù)量高臺期相伴,勞動力資源存量雖減但規(guī)模龐大,人口撫養(yǎng)比相對較低,人口綜合素質(zhì)有了質(zhì)的飛躍,低齡老年人力資源規(guī)模巨大且質(zhì)量改善,收獲數(shù)量型人口紅利的人口機會窗口越關(guān)越小,收獲質(zhì)量型人口紅利的人口機會窗口越開越大,兩個人口機會重疊并正加速從數(shù)量型紅利向質(zhì)量型紅利轉(zhuǎn)變。與此同時,深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革、加快建設(shè)創(chuàng)新型國家、優(yōu)先發(fā)展教育事業(yè)、提高就業(yè)質(zhì)量和人民收入水平、實施健康中國等新時代新發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略布局,初步奠定了繼續(xù)收獲新人口紅利和再創(chuàng)經(jīng)濟輝煌的政策基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:Demographic dividend is an economic concept based on the window of population opportunity. The precondition of harvesting the population dividend is the population opportunity which is favorable to the economic growth, and the sufficient and necessary condition is the economic and social development policy adapted to the population opportunity. The former is based on the advantage of human resources, the latter is based on human capital, and the cycles of the two types must overlap, and the potential of harvesting qualitative demographic dividend is greater and more sustainable. According to the law of population development, in the first half of the 21st century, the rapid aging of population in China is accompanied by a period of high number of working-age population. Although the stock of labor resources is decreasing, but the scale is huge, the dependency ratio of the population is relatively low, and the comprehensive quality of the population has made a qualitative leap forward. The scale and quality of the human resources of the young aged is huge and the population opportunity window of harvesting the quantitative population dividend is smaller and smaller, and the population opportunity window of the quality demographic dividend is bigger and bigger. The two demographic opportunities overlap and are accelerating the shift from a quantitative dividend to a qualitative dividend. At the same time, we should deepen the structural reform on the supply side, speed up the construction of an innovative country, give priority to the development of education, improve the quality of employment and the level of people's income, and implement the new era and new development strategy layout, such as a healthy China. Initially laid a policy foundation for continuing to reap new demographic dividends and recreate economic splendor.
【作者單位】： 南開大學人口與發(fā)展研究所;
【基金】：教育部哲學社會科學研究重大課題攻關(guān)項目“老齡化對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響及應(yīng)對策略研究”(編號:13JZD005)的階段性成果
【分類號】：C92-05

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