發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-30 15:16

  本文選題：生育政策 + 湖南省　； 參考：《湖南師范大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),湖南省人口再生產(chǎn)類型有了歷史性的轉(zhuǎn)變,婦女總和生育率低于更替水平,進(jìn)入了低生育水平時(shí)期。但是,湖南省人口基數(shù)過(guò)大的實(shí)情沒(méi)有改變。由于人口是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的基礎(chǔ)和主體,人口數(shù)量既是衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的總分母,又是估量社會(huì)問(wèn)題的總乘數(shù),所以有必要將人口問(wèn)題上升到人口發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略上來(lái)認(rèn)識(shí),要對(duì)人口的發(fā)展予以分析,對(duì)人口數(shù)量加以預(yù)測(cè)。只有在對(duì)人口進(jìn)行合理預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)上,才能比較準(zhǔn)確地把握未來(lái)人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì),從而采取有效措施積極應(yīng)對(duì)將要出現(xiàn)的新情況和新問(wèn)題,統(tǒng)籌人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展和可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本研究從人口適度理論視角出發(fā),以HNWIS數(shù)據(jù)、第五次人口普查資料、湖南省人口與計(jì)劃生育委員會(huì)開(kāi)展的一次新婚夫婦中獨(dú)生子女婚育情況抽樣調(diào)查資料數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),把湖南省人口放在不同生育政策條件下,采用年齡移算法,借助湖南省人口管理信息系統(tǒng),對(duì)湖南省未來(lái)人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。本文內(nèi)容分為四大部分：第一部分為本文的研究背景、理論視角、國(guó)內(nèi)外研究概況以及研究?jī)?nèi)容等；第二部分為湖南省人口發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及現(xiàn)行生育政策的概括,闡述湖南省人口的增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)增長(zhǎng)高峰期和一個(gè)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)期及一個(gè)低增長(zhǎng)期以及湖南省現(xiàn)行生育政策實(shí)行的是“一孩半”政策；第三部分是對(duì)湖南省人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè),該部分是本研究的重點(diǎn),主要是對(duì)出生人口和總?cè)丝诘念A(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析；第四部分作出結(jié)論并提出了相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。 研究結(jié)果表明：實(shí)行“普遍生二孩”政策對(duì)湖南省人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的影響較大,所以湖南省應(yīng)暫時(shí)不考慮“普遍生二孩”政策,而由“雙獨(dú)”生育政策過(guò)渡為“單獨(dú)”生育政策。選擇“單獨(dú)”政策,要注意選好政策調(diào)整的時(shí)機(jī),避開(kāi)人口生育高峰。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Hunan Province population reproduction type has a historical change, women's total fertility rate is lower than the replacement level, entered the low fertility level period. But the fact that Hunan's population base is too large has not changed. Because population is the basis and main body of social and economic activities, population quantity is not only the total denominator to measure economic development, but also the total multiplier to estimate social problems, so it is necessary to raise the population problem to the strategy of population development. It is necessary to analyze the development of the population and forecast the number of the population. Only on the basis of reasonable population prediction, can we grasp the future population development trend more accurately and take effective measures to deal positively with the new situation and problems that will arise, Coordinate population and economic and social development and sustainable development. From the perspective of population moderation theory, this study is based on the HNWIS data, the fifth census data, and the sample survey data of the one-child marriage and childbearing of newlyweds carried out by Hunan Provincial population and Family Planning Commission. This paper puts the population of Hunan Province under different conditions of fertility policy, adopts the age shift algorithm, and forecasts the future population development trend of Hunan Province with the help of the population Management Information system of Hunan Province. The content of this paper is divided into four parts: the first part is the research background, the theoretical perspective, the domestic and foreign research situation and the research content, the second part is the summary of Hunan province population development and current fertility policy. This paper expounds that the population growth of Hunan Province has experienced three peak periods of growth, one period of negative growth and one period of low growth, and that the current fertility policy of Hunan Province implements the policy of "one child and one half"; the third part is the forecast of the population development trend of Hunan Province. This part is the focus of this study, mainly the analysis of the birth population and the total population forecast results; the fourth part draws a conclusion and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. The results show that the implementation of the policy of "universal birth and two children" has a great influence on the population development trend of Hunan Province, so Hunan Province should not consider the policy of "universal birth of two children" for the time being, but transition from "double independence" policy to "separate" policy. To choose a "separate" policy, we should pay attention to the timing of policy adjustment to avoid the population fertility peak.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C924.21

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本文編號(hào)：1955761