發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-18 09:20

  本文選題：甘肅省 + 人口流動(dòng)��； 參考：《蘭州大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放、政治體制改革深入以及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,流動(dòng)人口的規(guī)模日益增大。城鄉(xiāng)間及地區(qū)間社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展差異推動(dòng)人口流動(dòng),大規(guī)模的人口流動(dòng)和人口再分配是城鎮(zhèn)化過(guò)程中必然結(jié)果。在我國(guó),人口流動(dòng)方向是以農(nóng)村流向城鎮(zhèn)為主,鄉(xiāng)一城人口流動(dòng)對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化水平提高起著非常重要的作用。人口流動(dòng)一方面協(xié)調(diào)城鄉(xiāng)及地區(qū)間的發(fā)展,促進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展,另一方面城鎮(zhèn)化過(guò)程中,大規(guī)模人口流動(dòng)也帶來(lái)一系列問(wèn)題。因此,深入研究甘肅省人口流動(dòng)及城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展具有很大現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文通過(guò)收集整理與甘肅省流動(dòng)人口相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)及文獻(xiàn),對(duì)流動(dòng)人口概念及相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑進(jìn)行界定,全面分析甘肅省人口流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀及特點(diǎn)；在分析甘肅省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展歷程及城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展不平衡性基礎(chǔ)上,利用CPPS人口預(yù)測(cè)軟件對(duì)20]0-2050年甘肅省封閉下(只有人口自然增長(zhǎng))及人口流動(dòng)情況下城鎮(zhèn)化預(yù)測(cè)；文章利用聚類分析方法,討論甘肅省人口流動(dòng)與城鎮(zhèn)化關(guān)系模式,并繼續(xù)討論流動(dòng)人口對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化的影響,在此基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了城鎮(zhèn)化過(guò)程中出現(xiàn)的與流動(dòng)人口相關(guān)的社會(huì)問(wèn)題并給出相應(yīng)的建議。本文得出的主要認(rèn)識(shí)和結(jié)論如下：(1)甘肅省流動(dòng)人口現(xiàn)狀和主要特征：流動(dòng)人口總規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)速度較快,但其規(guī)模占全國(guó)流動(dòng)人口比重仍較��；流動(dòng)人口以省內(nèi)流動(dòng)為主,省際凈流出狀態(tài)；流動(dòng)人口主要分布在周圍省份和少數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)省區(qū)；流動(dòng)距離以近、中距離為主；流動(dòng)原因以經(jīng)濟(jì)性動(dòng)機(jī)為主(務(wù)工經(jīng)商、學(xué)習(xí)培訓(xùn)),而婚姻嫁娶、投親靠友等社會(huì)性動(dòng)機(jī)比重越來(lái)越少；流出人口家庭的生活水平略低于流入人口的家庭生活水平；每一個(gè)流出人口與流入人口攜帶家屬分別為0.6285、0.7644,流動(dòng)人口生育情況來(lái)看,2009-2010年期間跨省流入比省內(nèi)流入婦女生育二孩及以上的比重低。(2)甘肅省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展水平較低,與西北地區(qū)四省(新疆、寧夏、青海、陜西)及全國(guó)平均水平都有一定差距,增長(zhǎng)速度低于全國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化平均速度；區(qū)域內(nèi)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展不平衡,相對(duì)總?cè)丝诘某擎?zhèn)化不平衡指數(shù)較大,相對(duì)于建成區(qū)面積和非農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)人員的城鎮(zhèn)化不平衡指數(shù)較小。分別假設(shè)在封閉條件(只考慮出生和死亡情況)和人口流動(dòng)情況下,來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)2010-2050年甘肅省城鎮(zhèn)化變化趨勢(shì),發(fā)現(xiàn)在封閉情況下甘肅省城鎮(zhèn)化水平逐年降低,而后者則相反,即人口流動(dòng)對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化提高具有很大的影響。(3)從全國(guó)范圍看,甘肅省流動(dòng)人口與城鎮(zhèn)化模式屬于較為封閉性的本地自發(fā)性城鎮(zhèn)化模式。這種模式下人口流動(dòng)性較弱,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展缺乏活力,因此需要通過(guò)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)自身發(fā)展,鼓勵(lì)人口流動(dòng)。(4)通過(guò)定量分析得出甘肅省人口流動(dòng)對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程影響程度。甘肅省流動(dòng)人口占總?cè)丝诘谋戎孛刻岣咭粋�(gè)百分點(diǎn),甘肅省城市化水平就可以提高6.208(5)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展過(guò)程中流動(dòng)人口問(wèn)題具有普遍性、長(zhǎng)期性和復(fù)雜性,甘肅省流動(dòng)人口分布集中、住房問(wèn)題、社會(huì)保障制度、流動(dòng)人口融合等問(wèn)題都亟待解決,在綜合分析問(wèn)題的基礎(chǔ)上,筆者提出了相應(yīng)的解決措施。
[Abstract]:With the reform and opening up, the deepening of the political system reform and the rapid development of the social economy, the scale of the floating population is increasing. The difference of the social and economic development between urban and rural areas and the regional social and economic development promotes the population flow. The large-scale population flow and the redistribution of the population are the inevitable result in the process of urbanization. In China, the direction of population flow is in the countryside. The flow of population to cities and towns plays a very important role in improving the level of urbanization. On the one hand, population flow coordinates the development of urban and rural areas and regions, and promotes the development of urbanization. On the other hand, in the process of urbanization, large-scale population flow also brings a series of problems. Therefore, the study of population flow and urbanization in Gansu province is deeply studied. The development has great practical significance. Through collecting and sorting out the data and literature related to the floating population in Gansu Province, this paper defines the concept of floating population and the statistical caliber of relevant data, comprehensively analyzes the current situation and characteristics of the population flow in Gansu Province, and analyzes the development process of urbanization in Gansu and the imbalance of urbanization development. The CPPS population forecast software is used to predict urbanization in Gansu province (only natural population growth) and population flow in 20]0-2050. The paper uses cluster analysis to discuss the relationship between population flow and urbanization in Gansu Province, and continues to discuss the influence of floating population on urbanization. On this basis, the process of urbanization is summarized. The main understanding and conclusions are as follows: (1) the current situation and main characteristics of the floating population in Gansu Province: the total size of the floating population is growing faster, but the proportion of the floating population is still small; the floating population is mainly in the province and the province is interprovincial. The flow population is mainly distributed in the surrounding provinces and a few economically developed provinces; the flow distance is close to the middle distance; the reasons for the flow are mainly economic motivation (doing business, learning and training), while the proportion of social motives, such as marriage, marriage and relatives, is less, and the living standard of the outflow family is slightly lower than that of the family. The living standard of the population inflows into the family; each outflow population and the influx of the population are 0.6285,0.7644, respectively. In the 2009-2010 year period, the proportion of cross provincial inflow to two children and above is lower than that in the province. (2) the level of urbanization in Gansu is low, and the four provinces in Northwest China (Xinjiang, Ningxia,) Qinghai, Shaanxi) and the national average level have a certain gap, the growth rate is lower than the national average speed of urbanization; the urbanization development in the region is not balanced, the relative total population's urbanization unbalance index is larger, compared with the built-up area and the non agricultural employment personnel, the urbanization unbalance index is smaller. Considering the situation of birth and death) and population flow, the trend of urbanization in Gansu province is predicted for 2010-2050 years. It is found that the urbanization level of Gansu province is decreasing year by year in the closed situation, and the latter is the opposite, that is, the population flow has a great influence on the urbanization. (3) from the national perspective, the floating population and the urbanization model of Gansu Province This model belongs to the more closed local spontaneous urbanization mode. Under this model, the population mobility is weak and the economic development is lack of vitality. Therefore, it needs to adjust the industrial structure, promote its own development and encourage the population flow. (4) through quantitative analysis, the influence of the population flow on the urbanization process in Gansu province. The floating population in Gansu province accounts for the population flow. As the proportion of the total population is increased by one percentage point, the urbanization level in Gansu province can be raised by 6.208 (5) research. It is found that the problem of floating population in the process of urbanization is universal, long-term and complex, the distribution of floating population in Gansu province is concentrated, housing problems, social protection system and floating population integration are all urgent to be solved, in a comprehensive way. On the basis of combining analysis, the author puts forward corresponding solutions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

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本文編號(hào)：1905292