本文選題：人口相對變化 + 人口流動��； 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放至今,我國經(jīng)濟一直以迅猛趨勢發(fā)展。2008年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP達300670億元,對全球新增GDP份額的貢獻達近18%,我國成為全球第三大經(jīng)濟體。2010年中國名義GDP比日本高4044億美元,GDP平均匯率折算達58791億美元,成為第二大經(jīng)濟體。 但是,在我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的高速發(fā)展的過程中,各地區(qū)之間的人均收入水平和實力的差距不斷擴大。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,我國收入的基尼系數(shù)從1978年0.317到2010年的0.458,特別是東部沿海地區(qū)收入水平較其他地區(qū)高得多。人均收入(人均GDP)的差異已經(jīng)逐漸成為學者們非常關(guān)注的研究課題。 人口因素是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的要素之一,人口的數(shù)量變化,是影響收入差距的動因之一。人口數(shù)量變化對收入收斂的影響作用主要包括兩個方面,即人口數(shù)量相對變化以及人口流動對地區(qū)收入的收斂的影響作用。人口數(shù)量的相對變化可以通過各地區(qū)人口數(shù)量占全國總?cè)丝诳偭勘戎氐淖兓瘉矸从�。我國各地區(qū)人口數(shù)量相對變化的絕對因素已經(jīng)不是人口自然增長率,各地區(qū)人口增長率相差無幾,而是決定于人口流動。 伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟的日益高漲,各地區(qū)人口占全國人口的數(shù)量也不斷變化,人口流動規(guī)模不斷擴大,人口數(shù)量的相對變化和人口流動對人均收入的收斂趨勢都有不可忽視的影響。人口相對變化及人口流動對收入收斂的影響不僅在國內(nèi)廣受關(guān)注,而且在國際上也被爭論不已。學者們對人口數(shù)量的相對變化和人口流動對地區(qū)收入收斂的影響主要存在兩種觀點,一種觀點認為人口數(shù)量的相對變化及人口流動對縮小地區(qū)差距有著顯著的貢獻作用,另一種觀點認為人口流動并沒有促進地區(qū)差距的縮小,而是使地區(qū)差距進一步擴大。 基于這樣的背景,本文從各省市人口數(shù)量的相對變化和人口流動兩個方面分析人口數(shù)量變化對地區(qū)收入收斂的影響作用。首先,利用Theil指數(shù)及變異系數(shù)對中國各省人均收入差距進行分析,并通過實證研究,證明了研究期內(nèi)中國各地區(qū)總收入和人均收入都存在收斂的特征；其次,通過人口數(shù)量相對變化對收入收斂的實證指出,人口相對變化對收入的收斂有不可忽視貢獻作用；第三,分析了人口流動對地區(qū)收入收斂的影響,證明人口數(shù)量變化確實影響地區(qū)收入的收斂進程；最后,結(jié)合實證分析與結(jié)論,提出有價值的政策建議。 論文共分五部分。第一部分,主要對國內(nèi)外人口與收入差距關(guān)系的相關(guān)研究進行綜述。關(guān)于人口相對變化和人口流動對收入收斂影響的爭論分別是新古典主義理論和內(nèi)生增長理論。新古典增長模型認為,投資的邊際收益率呈遞減趨勢,因此保證了經(jīng)濟增長穩(wěn)定在一個特定值上,即經(jīng)濟的增長過程最終將趨于穩(wěn)態(tài)(Solow,1956),此時人均產(chǎn)出保持不變。由于各經(jīng)濟單位(國家或地區(qū))的具體條件不同,穩(wěn)態(tài)的值也會互不相同。收入趨于穩(wěn)態(tài)的過程,被稱為收入的收斂。根據(jù)內(nèi)生增長理論,一國能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)增長,穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)不存在。也就是說,收斂是不可能的。 論文的第二部分主要研究了人均收入的收斂特征和趨勢。在這一部分,首先對收入收斂的內(nèi)涵做概括說明,其次通過Theil系數(shù)和變異系數(shù)結(jié)合來分析我國人均收入的收斂特點,最后利用一個面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,實證研究了我國收入的收斂現(xiàn)狀和趨勢。 論文的第三部分主要分析了人口數(shù)量的相對變化對人均收入收斂的影響作用。這一部分首先對人口動態(tài)(人口相對變化)進行描述性分析,說明了人口動態(tài)對收入收斂(或發(fā)散)進程的影響,其次通過實證分析研究人口數(shù)量的相對變化對人均收入影響的地區(qū)性特征,最后通過shift-share(偏離-份額)分析對各省人口份額的變化對人均收入增長的影響,從而分析對人均收入收斂進程的影響。 論文的第四部分主要是人口流動對收入收斂影響的實證分析。首先對人口流動的現(xiàn)狀和特征進行歸納和總結(jié),然后利用統(tǒng)計分析軟件進行數(shù)據(jù)分析,實證研究分析人口流動對收入收斂影響作用。 論文的第五部分主要針對實證結(jié)果得出結(jié)論并提出政策建議,為如何有效發(fā)揮人口作用縮小收入差異提供一些方法和思路。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, our country's economy has been developing a rapid trend of.2008 GDP to 300670 billion yuan, and the contribution to the global new GDP share is nearly 18%. China has become the third largest economy in the world in the name of.2010, the GDP is 404 billion 400 million US dollars higher than that of Japan, and the average exchange rate of GDP reaches 58791 billion US dollars and becomes the second largest economy.
However, in the process of the rapid development of China's economic development, the gap between the per capita income level and strength has been widening. According to statistics, the Gini coefficient of China's income from 0.317 to 2010 in 1978, especially in the eastern coastal areas, is much higher than that of other regions. The difference of per capita income (per capita GDP) has been made by the country. It has become a research subject that scholars have paid very much attention to.
Population factor is one of the factors of economic development. The change of population is one of the factors that affect the income gap. The influence of population quantity change on income convergence mainly includes two aspects, that is, the relative change of population quantity and the influence of population flow on the convergence of regional income. The number of population in each region accounts for the change in the total proportion of the total population of the country. The absolute factor of the relative change of the population in each region is not the natural growth rate of the population. The population growth rate in each region is almost different, but it is determined by the population flow.
With the increasing economy of our country, the population of all regions is also changing, the scale of population flow is expanding, the relative change of population and the trend of population flow have no negligible influence on the convergence trend of per capita income. The influence of population relative change and human mouth flow on income convergence is not only widely used in China. There are two main points of view on the relative change of population quantity and the effect of population flow on regional income convergence. One view holds that the relative change of population and the flow of population have a significant contribution to the narrowing of the regional gap, and the other view is population flow. It did not promote the narrowing of the regional disparity, but widened the regional disparity.
Based on this background, this paper analyzes the influence of population quantity change on regional income convergence from two aspects of the relative change of population number and population flow in various provinces and cities. First, the Theil index and coefficient of variation are used to analyze the per capita income gap in all provinces of China, and through empirical research, it is proved that the Chinese regions in the study period are in the period of the study. Both the total income and the per capita income have the characteristics of convergence. Secondly, through the empirical analysis of the relative change of population on income convergence, it is pointed out that the relative change of population has no negligible contribution to the convergence of income; third, the influence of population flow on regional income convergence is analyzed, and it is proved that the change of population does affect the income income of the region. Convergence process; finally, combined with empirical analysis and conclusions, put forward valuable policy recommendations.
The thesis is divided into five parts. In the first part, it summarizes the related research on the relationship between the population and the income gap both at home and abroad. The debate about the relative changes of population and the influence of population flow on income convergence is the neo classical theory and the endogenous growth theory. The new classical growth model is recognized as the marginal return of investment, Therefore, the economic growth is guaranteed to be stable on a specific value, that is, the economic growth process will eventually tend to steady state (Solow, 1956), and the per capita output remains unchanged. The steady state is not the same because the specific conditions of the economic units (countries or regions) are different. The process of getting into the steady state is called the convergence of income. Growth growth theory, a country can achieve sustained economic growth, stable state does not exist, that is, convergence is impossible.
The second part of this paper mainly studies the convergence characteristics and trends of per capita income. In this part, first, the connotation of income convergence is summarized. Secondly, the convergence characteristics of per capita income in China are analyzed by combining Theil coefficient and coefficient of variation. Finally, the convergence of China's income is empirically studied by using a panel data model. Shape and trend.
The third part of the paper mainly analyzes the influence of the relative change of population on the per capita income convergence. This part first describes the population dynamics (population relative change), and explains the effect of population dynamics on the process of income convergence (or divergence), and it studies the relative changes of population number by empirical analysis. The regional characteristics of per capita income affect the impact of the change of population share on the growth of per capita income through the analysis of Shift-share (deviation share), and the effect of the analysis on the progress of per capita income convergence.
The fourth part of the paper is mainly an empirical analysis of the influence of population flow on income convergence. First, the current situation and characteristics of population flow are summarized and summarized, and then the statistical analysis software is used to analyze the data, and the effect of population flow on income convergence is analyzed.
The fifth part of the paper comes to the conclusion of the empirical results and puts forward the policy suggestions to provide some methods and ideas for how to effectively play the role of population to reduce the income difference.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C92-05;F124.7;F224

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