本文選題：人口結(jié)構(gòu) + 經(jīng)常賬目　； 參考：《北京大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1994年以來(lái)，中國(guó)出現(xiàn)了連續(xù)18年的經(jīng)常賬目盈余，對(duì)這一現(xiàn)象的解釋學(xué)者眾說(shuō)紛紜，包括匯率操縱說(shuō)、出口政策說(shuō)等。值得注意的是，在國(guó)際上中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬目不平衡并非特例，例如日本在過(guò)去的22年連續(xù)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)常賬目盈余，而美國(guó)則在過(guò)去10年呈現(xiàn)經(jīng)常賬目赤字。面對(duì)長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)的經(jīng)常賬目不平衡，本文嘗試從人口結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的角度給出一個(gè)解釋。通過(guò)將幼年撫養(yǎng)比、老年撫養(yǎng)比引入模型，，本文提出一個(gè)基于戴蒙德模型的三期世代交替模型，對(duì)經(jīng)常賬目余額進(jìn)行定性分析，并利用1990年至2011年全球110個(gè)國(guó)家的強(qiáng)平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證定量驗(yàn)證。我們得到人口結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)常賬目余額有顯著影響的證據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)撫養(yǎng)比的變化可以解釋16.6%經(jīng)常賬目余額占GDP比重的變動(dòng)。本文進(jìn)一步借助脈沖響應(yīng)圖觀察撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)經(jīng)常賬目余額的動(dòng)態(tài)影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)老年撫養(yǎng)比的影響較為長(zhǎng)期，幼年撫養(yǎng)比則更加短期。二者均為負(fù)向影響。
[Abstract]:Since 1994, China has experienced 18 years of regular account surpluses. The interpretations of this phenomenon vary, including exchange rate manipulation, export policy and so on. It is worth noting that the international current account imbalance is not a special case in China, such as the continuous current account surplus in Japan in the past 22 years, while the United States is in the United States. In the past 10 years, the current account deficit is present. In the face of persistent current account imbalance, this paper tries to give an explanation from the perspective of demographic transition. By introducing the young age dependency ratio and the old age dependency ratio, this paper presents a three generation alternation model based on Diamond model, which is a qualitative analysis of the balance of the current account. And using the strong balance panel data from 110 countries of the world from 1990 to 2011, the empirical quantitative verification is carried out. We get evidence that the population structure has a significant impact on the balance of the current account. It is found that the change of the Chinese dependency ratio can explain the change in the proportion of the 16.6% regular account balance in GDP. This article further uses the impulse response map to observe the maintenance. Compared with the dynamic balance of the current account, it is found that the influence of the elderly dependency ratio is longer, while the infant dependency ratio is more short-term. The two are all negative.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F752

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本文編號(hào)：1896806