本文選題：人口老齡化 + ESDA-GIS��； 參考：《上海經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2016年08期

【摘要】：該文采用探索性空間數(shù)據(jù)分析方法分析了上海市人口老齡化的區(qū)域差異,具體考察了1990-2010年上海各區(qū)縣人口老齡化的時(shí)空演變特征,并對(duì)其影響因素進(jìn)行了探討。研究結(jié)果表明:老年人口區(qū)域分布不均衡,老年人口比重有明顯的圈層結(jié)構(gòu)特征;老年人口分布存在顯著的正向自相關(guān)關(guān)系,但空間集聚趨勢(shì)有所減弱;人口老齡化空間差異的不確定因素的影響程度在減弱,而空間結(jié)構(gòu)特征引起的人口老齡化變異程度在增強(qiáng),人口老齡化的總體空間差異趨于緩和。1990-2000年間上海市各區(qū)縣以向更深程度的“老齡化”方向轉(zhuǎn)移為主,而在2000-2010年間有向“年輕化”轉(zhuǎn)移的趨勢(shì)。人口老齡化的空間差異是受自然、人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、文化等多因素綜合作用的結(jié)果,各類(lèi)因素在不同的發(fā)展階段對(duì)不同區(qū)縣的人口老齡化有不同的影響方向和力度。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the regional difference of population aging in Shanghai is analyzed with the method of exploratory spatial data analysis. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the population aging in each district and county in Shanghai for 1990-2010 years are investigated and the influencing factors are discussed. The results show that the regional distribution of the elderly population is unbalanced and the proportion of the elderly population has a distinct circle. There is a significant positive autocorrelation in the population distribution of the elderly, but the trend of spatial agglomeration is weakened; the influence degree of the uncertainty factors of the spatial difference of population aging is weakened, and the degree of population aging variation caused by the spatial structure characteristics is increasing, and the overall spatial difference of population aging tends to ease.1990-2000. In the period of 2000-2010 years, the districts and counties in Shanghai were mainly transferred to the direction of "aging", and the trend of "Youth" was transferred during the period of 2000-2010 years. The spatial difference of population aging was the result of many factors, such as nature, population, economy, society, culture and so on. The aging of the mouth has different influence direction and strength.

，

本文編號(hào)：1864244