本文選題：人口 + 可持續(xù)發(fā)展��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口問(wèn)題是我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展面臨的首要問(wèn)題,在對(duì)人口問(wèn)題的研究和解決上,綜合可持續(xù)發(fā)展觀的理論及實(shí)踐意義,研究在可持續(xù)發(fā)展的前提下,如何在保證社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源、環(huán)境等各要素協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)上,解決人口問(wèn)題,實(shí)現(xiàn)全面的、協(xié)調(diào)的、可持續(xù)的人口發(fā)展之路,顯得尤為重要。吉林省作為我國(guó)地域區(qū)劃中的重要省份,占地面積廣、邊境線較長(zhǎng),對(duì)吉林省人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的把握直接影響了國(guó)內(nèi)外地區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展各方面的水平和程度,也關(guān)系到國(guó)家政策安排和社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定,所以人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系研究有重大意義。人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)對(duì)于吉林省人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)的量化評(píng)估和監(jiān)測(cè),采取定性與定量結(jié)合的方法,綜合現(xiàn)有理論成果,利用模糊數(shù)學(xué)知識(shí)以及多元統(tǒng)計(jì)分析模型,完成對(duì)人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度的量化,得出合理的、科學(xué)的權(quán)重模型,量化地表達(dá)吉林省人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度。通過(guò)構(gòu)建指標(biāo)體系,結(jié)合選取的閾值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)應(yīng)用模糊隸屬度函數(shù),使吉林省人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展量化從而進(jìn)行比較、趨勢(shì)等分析,即將抽象化的人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展問(wèn)題指標(biāo)化,最終得出可進(jìn)行計(jì)算分析的數(shù)值用于研究和綜合評(píng)價(jià),根據(jù)層次分析法結(jié)合主成分分析法的計(jì)算結(jié)果,得出吉林省人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的量化公式。由2005年到2015年吉林省的數(shù)據(jù)分析得到,吉林省人口可持續(xù)發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系中,人口要素雖發(fā)展穩(wěn)定,但仍存在問(wèn)題和較大的提升空間;經(jīng)濟(jì)要素在波動(dòng)中呈上升趨勢(shì)且發(fā)展程度較好,但波動(dòng)性較大,其穩(wěn)定性是值得重視的;社會(huì)要素在穩(wěn)定中上升,發(fā)展程度中等,社會(huì)保障和社會(huì)福利方面還有較大提升空間;資源環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展程度較高,但仍有波動(dòng),需要注重環(huán)境保護(hù)等方面因素。
[Abstract]:Population problem is the most important problem to realize sustainable development in our country. In the research and solution of population problem, it synthesizes the theoretical and practical significance of sustainable development concept, and studies how to ensure the society and economy under the premise of sustainable development. On the basis of the coordinated development of resources and environment, it is particularly important to solve the population problem and realize a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable road of population development. Jilin Province, as an important province in the regional regionalization of our country, covers a wide area and has a long border. The sustainable development of population in Jilin Province has a direct impact on the level and degree of sustainable development in various areas at home and abroad. It is also related to national policy arrangement and social stability, so the study of population sustainable development index system is of great significance. The construction of population sustainable development index system can realize the quantitative evaluation and monitoring of the status of population sustainable development in Jilin Province, adopt the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and synthesize the existing theoretical results. By using fuzzy mathematical knowledge and multivariate statistical analysis model, the quantification of the sustainable development degree of population is completed, and a reasonable and scientific weight model is obtained to quantitatively express the sustainable development degree of population in Jilin Province. By constructing the index system and applying fuzzy membership function in combination with the selected threshold standard, the sustainable development of population in Jilin Province can be quantified and analyzed, such as the analysis of the trend, that is, the index of the abstract sustainable development of population. Finally, the numerical value which can be calculated and analyzed is used for research and comprehensive evaluation. According to the calculation results of AHP combined with principal component analysis, the quantitative formula for the sustainable development of population in Jilin Province is obtained. From 2005 to 2015, the data analysis of Jilin Province, Jilin Province population sustainable development indicators system, although the development of population elements are stable, but there are still problems and greater room for improvement; The economic factors show an upward trend in the fluctuation and the degree of development is good, but the stability of the economic elements is worthy of attention because of its high volatility, the social elements are rising in the stability, the degree of development is moderate, and there is still much room for improvement in the aspects of social security and social welfare. The degree of sustainable development of resources and environment is high, but there are still fluctuations, so it is necessary to pay attention to environmental protection and other factors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

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