本文選題：人口分布 + 情景模擬��； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口分布是人口發(fā)展過程的空間表現(xiàn)形式，它受制于并反作用于區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展水平。為了準(zhǔn)確模擬人口空間分布并描述人口分布特征，本文以內(nèi)蒙古為研究區(qū)，選取1990、2000和2010年的內(nèi)蒙古人口數(shù)據(jù)，分別計(jì)算不均衡指數(shù)和集中指數(shù)，得到內(nèi)蒙古人口分布的區(qū)域特征并對(duì)1990～2000年和2000～2010年內(nèi)蒙古人口的增長(zhǎng)特征進(jìn)行分析；選取2010年內(nèi)蒙古101個(gè)旗縣（區(qū)）的人口數(shù)據(jù)，結(jié)合內(nèi)蒙古2010年的Landsat TM影像、氣候數(shù)據(jù)、DEM數(shù)據(jù)、土壤數(shù)據(jù)、水文數(shù)據(jù)、交通數(shù)據(jù)、居民地分布數(shù)據(jù)和行政區(qū)劃數(shù)據(jù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)內(nèi)蒙古2010年人口數(shù)據(jù)空間化，最后通過GM（1，1）灰色模型對(duì)2011～2015年內(nèi)蒙古101個(gè)旗縣（區(qū)）的人口進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并對(duì)內(nèi)蒙古2015年人口密度分布進(jìn)行模擬。主要研究結(jié)果如下： （1）1990～2000年，內(nèi)蒙古總?cè)丝谠鲩L(zhǎng)了225.21萬人，年均增長(zhǎng)率1.01%，，各行政單元人口年均增長(zhǎng)率的變化范圍從-1.37%到4.60%；2000年～2010年，內(nèi)蒙古總?cè)丝谠鲩L(zhǎng)了96.85萬人，年均增長(zhǎng)率為0.41%，各行政單元人口年均增長(zhǎng)率的變化范圍從-0.84%到5.00%，各指標(biāo)均比前一階段（1990～2000年）有所降低。從總體來看，內(nèi)蒙古人口增長(zhǎng)率大部分保持在0.00%～1.00%之間。人口增長(zhǎng)率較高的地區(qū)集中在內(nèi)蒙古中西部地區(qū)，包括呼和浩特市、包頭市、鄂爾多斯市和烏海市。 （2）1990～2000年，內(nèi)蒙古人口重心整體向西南方向遷移，人口分布有從西北部向東南部集中的趨勢(shì)。人口大體上在兩個(gè)區(qū)域集中：在內(nèi)蒙古中西部地區(qū)，人口分布主要集中在烏海市、巴彥淖爾市南部、包頭市南部、呼和浩特市大部分地區(qū)和烏蘭察布市南部；在內(nèi)蒙古東部地區(qū)，人口分布主要集中在通遼市和赤峰市大部分地區(qū)、興安盟和呼倫貝爾市東部地區(qū)。人口在中西部地區(qū)的集中程度更高，而在赤峰市和通遼市內(nèi)部人口分布相對(duì)均勻。 （3）從對(duì)2011～2015年內(nèi)蒙古101個(gè)旗縣（區(qū)）的人口預(yù)測(cè)以及模擬結(jié)果來看，人口密度最高值由2010年的28219人/km2增加到2015年的29439人/km2。大部分旗縣（區(qū)）的人口年均增長(zhǎng)率介于0.00%～3.00%之間，達(dá)到85個(gè)，占總數(shù)的84.16%；人口呈負(fù)增長(zhǎng)的旗縣（區(qū)）有9個(gè)，占總數(shù)的8.91%；年均增長(zhǎng)率大于3.00%的旗縣（區(qū)）有7個(gè)，占總數(shù)的6.93%。人口年均增長(zhǎng)率排在前三位的盟市是烏海市、包頭市和鄂爾多斯市，均位于內(nèi)蒙古的西部地區(qū)。2010～2015年內(nèi)蒙古東部地區(qū)5個(gè)盟市（呼倫貝爾市、興安盟、通遼市、赤峰市和錫林郭勒盟）人口總數(shù)的年均增長(zhǎng)率為0.72%，而內(nèi)蒙古西部地區(qū)7個(gè)盟市（呼和浩特市、包頭市、鄂爾多斯市、烏蘭察布市、巴彥淖爾市、烏海市和阿拉善盟）人口總數(shù)的年均增長(zhǎng)率為1.54%。未來五年，內(nèi)蒙古西部地區(qū)的人口增長(zhǎng)速度要明顯快于內(nèi)蒙古東部地區(qū)。
[Abstract]:Population distribution is the spatial manifestation of population development, which is restricted and counteracted by the level of regional economic and social development. In order to accurately simulate the spatial distribution of population and describe the characteristics of population distribution, this paper takes Inner Mongolia as the study area, selects the population data of Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2000 and 2010, calculates the unbalanced index and the concentration index, respectively. The regional characteristics of population distribution in Inner Mongolia are obtained and the characteristics of population growth in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 are analyzed, and the population data of 101 flag counties (districts) in Inner Mongolia in 2010 are selected. Combined with the Landsat TM image of Inner Mongolia in 2010, the climate data of Dem are obtained. Soil data, hydrological data, traffic data, residential distribution data and administrative division data are used to realize the spatialization of population data in 2010 in Inner Mongolia. Finally, the population of 101 flag counties (districts) in Inner Mongolia from 2011 to 2015 is forecasted by GMGM1Q1) grey model. The population density distribution in Inner Mongolia in 2015 was simulated. The main findings are as follows: From 1990 to 2000, the total population of Inner Mongolia increased by 2.2521 million people, with an average annual growth rate of 1.010.The average annual population growth rate of each administrative unit ranged from -1.37% to 4.60%, and from 2000 to 2010, the total population of Inner Mongolia increased by 968500 people. The average annual growth rate is 0.41%, the average annual population growth rate of each administrative unit ranges from -0.84% to 5.00%, and each index is lower than that of the previous stage (1990-2000). Overall, the population growth rate in Inner Mongolia remained mostly between 0.0010% and 1.00%. The regions with high population growth rate are concentrated in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia, including Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos and Wuhai. From 1990 to 2000, the population center of gravity of Inner Mongolia moved to the southwest, and the population distribution tended to concentrate from the northwest to the southeast. The population is mainly concentrated in two regions: in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia, the population distribution is mainly concentrated in Wuhai City, southern Bayannur City, southern Baotou City, most areas of Hohhot City and the southern part of Ulanchab City; In the eastern region of Inner Mongolia, the population distribution is mainly concentrated in most areas of Tongliao City and Chifeng City, and the eastern areas of XingUNITA and Hulunbeir City. Population concentration is higher in the central and western regions, but relatively uniform in Chifeng and Tongliao. From the population forecast and simulation results of 101 flag counties (districts) in Inner Mongolia from 2011 to 2015, the highest population density increased from 28219 people / km ~ 2 in 2010 to 29439 / km ~ (2) / / km ~ (2) in 2015. The average annual population growth rate of most flag counties (districts) is between 0.000% and 3.00%, reaching 85, accounting for 84.16% of the total; there are 9 flag counties (districts) with negative population growth, accounting for 8.91% of the total; there are 7 flag counties (districts) with an average annual growth rate of more than 3.00%, accounting for 6.933% of the total. Wuhai City, Baotou City and Ordos City are the top three cities with average annual population growth rate. They are located in the western region of Inner Mongolia and five cities in eastern Inner Mongolia from 2010 to 2015 (Hulunbeir City, XingUNITA City, Tongliao City). The average annual growth rate of the total population of Chifeng and Xilingol is 0.72, while in the western part of Inner Mongolia there are seven cities (Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos, Ulaanchab, Bayannur, The average annual growth rate of the total population of Wuhai City and Alashan League is 1.54. In the next five years, the population growth rate in the western part of Inner Mongolia is obviously faster than that in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：C922;P208

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