本文選題：人口紅利　切入點(diǎn)：第一人口紅利　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)實(shí)施計(jì)劃生育以來(lái),逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)了人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閮深^低、中間高,即總?cè)丝谥袆趧?dòng)力人口比重高,少兒、老人的比重較低。這被許多學(xué)者形容為人口紅利。由于中國(guó)具有豐富的勞動(dòng)力資源,而且結(jié)構(gòu)上表現(xiàn)出年輕勞動(dòng).力非常豐富,隨著市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,勞動(dòng)力的轉(zhuǎn)移為我國(guó)發(fā)展勞動(dòng)力密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)提供了很好的支撐,同時(shí)也為經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)做出了巨大的貢獻(xiàn)。也有學(xué)者把這種結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢(shì)稱(chēng)之為第一人口紅利。 如今老齡化以及民工荒的問(wèn)題又開(kāi)始凸現(xiàn),一些學(xué)者認(rèn)為人口紅利即將結(jié)束,將導(dǎo)致中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的速度可能會(huì)慢下來(lái),到底人口紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響有多大,以及如何認(rèn)識(shí)人口紅利這一概念,這是需要作進(jìn)一步的探討的。 然而如果我們繼續(xù)深究的話(huà)就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)做出貢獻(xiàn)的人口因素絕不只是簡(jiǎn)單的人口結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢(shì),人口素質(zhì)的不斷提高以及人力資本的提升不但在過(guò)去而且在未來(lái)都是更加重要的另一個(gè)人口因素。筆者將其歸為第二人口紅利。過(guò)去幾十年,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得了快速的發(fā)展,但是并沒(méi)有對(duì)這一重要因素引起必要的重視。但是隨著我國(guó)持續(xù)的低生育水平,勞動(dòng)力供給將減少,人口老齡化將愈加明顯,這無(wú)疑對(duì)于還沒(méi)有進(jìn)入中等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家水平的中國(guó)而言是一個(gè)巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。 “土地是財(cái)富之母,勞動(dòng)是財(cái)富之父。”古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家穆勒的這一名言對(duì)于今天我們理解中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)仍然具有非常重要的意義。人口紅利在根本上體現(xiàn)為勞動(dòng)的創(chuàng)造性,這才是財(cái)富的源泉,因此第二人口紅利所體現(xiàn)出來(lái)的巨大的創(chuàng)造性才是解決問(wèn)題的關(guān)鍵。隨著中國(guó)人口的轉(zhuǎn)變,人口結(jié)構(gòu)和質(zhì)量都在發(fā)生巨大的變化,怎么樣解決人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的問(wèn)題,不僅是科學(xué)發(fā)展觀的要求,也是時(shí)代賦予我們的歷史使命。 本文的主要內(nèi)容分為以下幾個(gè)方面： 第一部分緒論。主要介紹了文章選題的背景以及意義。以及文章的思路和框架�；谖覈�(guó)目前的人口狀況和未來(lái)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),我國(guó)即將面臨未富先老的挑戰(zhàn),通過(guò)對(duì)人口紅利的深度挖掘,筆者認(rèn)為有利于應(yīng)對(duì)這一挑戰(zhàn)。 第二部分文獻(xiàn)綜述。介紹了當(dāng)前人口紅利相關(guān)研究,包括兩個(gè)人口紅利的概念定義以及存在的爭(zhēng)議,人口紅利的度量及存在的問(wèn)題,人口紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響及相關(guān)的研究展望。 第三部分是人口紅利的相關(guān)理論,著重分析了我國(guó)的人口紅利與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的理論關(guān)系。首先把人口紅利分解為兩個(gè)人口紅利——第一人口紅利和第二入口紅利,著重介紹了第二人口紅利的相關(guān)內(nèi)容。接下來(lái)分析人口紅利在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的作用,除了人口結(jié)構(gòu)方面的第一人口紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有利之外,重點(diǎn)分析了第二人口紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用。最后分析了阻礙了我國(guó)人口紅利的最大化的因素,主要有就業(yè)不足,人口素質(zhì)偏低,以及制度方面的原因。 第四部分則主要討論我國(guó)的人口紅利與經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)系問(wèn)題。回答了人口紅利到底能夠持續(xù)多久的問(wèn)題。其中難以回避的一個(gè)重點(diǎn)問(wèn)題是勞動(dòng)力供給,人口紅利,劉易斯轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。分析了人口紅利與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系,人口紅利與劉易斯轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)的關(guān)系,以及這二者對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。 第五部分討論老齡化下的中國(guó)人口紅利。一方面是老齡化給未來(lái)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展帶來(lái)不利的影響,人口形勢(shì)給我們帶來(lái)了巨大的挑戰(zhàn),包括未富先老,養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)的加劇,勞動(dòng)力供需矛盾愈加突出等,另一方面是老齡化背景下第二人口紅利依然存在,并分析了其來(lái)源。主要來(lái)源有人口素質(zhì)的提高,人力資本存量的上升,勞動(dòng)力配置效率的提高,以及老齡化帶來(lái)的儲(chǔ)蓄的增加,有可能轉(zhuǎn)化為資本或投資,從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 第六部分是政策建議以及結(jié)語(yǔ)。在綜合上述分析的情況下,筆者提出了五大建議來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)第二人口紅利促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。具體地有：調(diào)整當(dāng)前的計(jì)劃生育政策,使人口轉(zhuǎn)變更加平穩(wěn)；努力擴(kuò)大就業(yè)；積極參加全球化,利用全球的人力資源；實(shí)施積極的老齡化政策,合理利用老年人力資源；最為重要的還是提高人口素質(zhì),提升人力資本存量。 本文的主要貢獻(xiàn)在于對(duì)人口紅利尤其是第二人口紅利進(jìn)行了更深的拓展,結(jié)合發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)以及人力資本理論,深化了對(duì)這一概念的內(nèi)涵,具體體現(xiàn)在： 1,詮釋了兩個(gè)人口紅利的概念及其聯(lián)系與區(qū)別。把兩個(gè)紅利都納入發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的框架,分析了其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)。 2,對(duì)于第二個(gè)人口紅利有了更深的認(rèn)識(shí),并融入了發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的分析,對(duì)我國(guó)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有了人口經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的新認(rèn)識(shí)。較為全面的分析了其來(lái)源以及制約其發(fā)揮作用的因素。
[Abstract]:With the development of market economy , the transfer of labor force has provided great support to the development of labor - intensive industries in our country , and also has made great contributions to the high - speed growth of economy .

The problem of aging and the shortage of people is beginning to highlight , some scholars think that the demographic dividend is about to end , which will slow down the growth of China ' s economy , how big the demographic dividend has on the economic development , and how to recognize the concept of demographic dividend , which needs to be further explored .

However , if we continue to study deeply , demographic factors that contribute to economic growth are by no means simple demographic advantages , the growing population quality and the promotion of human capital not only in the past but also in the future .

" The land is the mother of wealth and the work is the father of wealth . " Classical economist Mu - ler ' s famous remark is very important for us to understand the rapid growth of China ' s economy today . Population dividend is the source of wealth , so the huge creativity embodied in the second demographic dividend is the key to solving the problem . With the transformation of China ' s population , population structure and quality have changed greatly , how to solve the problem of population and economic sustainable development is not only the requirement of the scientific development view , but also the historical mission entrusted to us in the times .

The main contents of this paper are as follows :

The first part introduces the background and significance of the article selection . Based on the present situation of the population and the development trend of the future , China is facing the challenge of not being rich first , through the deep excavation of the demographic dividend , the author thinks it is beneficial to deal with this challenge .

In the second part of literature review , the current demographic dividend - related research , including the definition of the concept of two demographic dividend and the problems existing , the measure and the problems of the demographic dividend , the influence of the demographic dividend on the economy and the related research prospect are introduced .

The third part is the relevant theories of demographic dividend , and focuses on the analysis of the theoretical relationship between the demographic dividend and economic growth in China .

The fourth part mainly discusses the relationship between China ' s demographic dividend and economic sustainable development . One of the key problems which is difficult to avoid is labor supply , demographic dividend , Lewis turning point and economic growth . The relationship between demographic dividend and economic growth , the relationship between demographic dividend and Lewis turning point , and the impact of both on China ' s future economic growth are analyzed .

The fifth part discusses China ' s demographic dividend under aging . On the one hand , the aging gives us a great challenge to the sustainable development of the future . The demographic situation brings us great challenges , including the increase of the population quality , the increase of the human capital stock , the improvement of the efficiency of the labor force allocation and the increase of the savings brought by the aging , which may be converted into capital or investment , thereby promoting economic growth .

The sixth part is policy suggestion and conclusion . In the case of comprehensive analysis , the author put forward five suggestions to develop the second demographic dividend to promote the sustainable development of economy and society .
( a ) Efforts to expand employment ;
Active participation in globalization and the use of global human resources ;
Implement active ageing policies and make rational use of the resources of older persons ;
The most important is to improve the quality of the population and improve the human capital stock .

The main contribution of this paper lies in the deeper expansion of the demographic dividend , especially the second demographic dividend , combining the development economics and the human capital theory , deepening the connotation of this concept , which is embodied in :

1 . The concept of two demographic dividend and its relation and difference are interpreted . Both dividends are integrated into the framework of development economics , and its contribution to economic growth is analyzed .

2 . There is a deeper understanding of the second demographic dividend and the analysis of population and economic growth in the development economics , which has a new understanding of population economics for the future economic development of our country .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 田永坡;鄭磊;曹永峰;;人口老齡化、社會(huì)保障與人力資本投資[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究;2008年02期

2 王文舉;范合君;;我國(guó)市場(chǎng)化改革對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)的實(shí)證分析[J];中國(guó)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年09期

3 楊娟;;關(guān)于人口紅利的一般討論——兼論老齡化中國(guó)人口紅利的實(shí)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2009年08期

4 黃潤(rùn)龍;;“人口紅利”質(zhì)疑:虛化了人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)探討;2009年08期

5 汪小勤;汪紅梅;;“人口紅利”效應(yīng)與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2007年01期

6 宋世方;;劉易斯轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn):理論與檢驗(yàn)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2009年02期

7 蔡fs,王德文;中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可持續(xù)性與勞動(dòng)貢獻(xiàn)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;1999年10期

8 武劍;儲(chǔ)蓄、投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)——中國(guó)資金供求的動(dòng)態(tài)分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;1999年11期

9 袁志剛,宋錚;人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度與最優(yōu)儲(chǔ)蓄率[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2000年11期

10 蔡f ;;人口轉(zhuǎn)變、人口紅利與劉易斯轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2010年04期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 李魁;人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)[D];武漢大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1689095