本文選題：中國　切入點(diǎn)：區(qū)域　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)是全球性人口老齡化的世紀(jì),伴隨著全球性人口老齡化的到來,人口老齡化正廣泛而深刻地影響著人類經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)生活的各個(gè)方面,日益成為世界各國政府高度關(guān)注的重大人口問題。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國人口司2010年發(fā)布的《世界人口老齡化(2009)》報(bào)告(World Population Aging 2009)顯示,從1950年到2009年,全球范圍內(nèi)60歲以上和65歲以上人口所占比例已經(jīng)分別從8%和5%上升至11%和近8%。人口老齡化的問題在我國同樣十分突出。首先,我國的老年人口總數(shù)很多,1996年我國65歲及以上的老年人口總數(shù)已達(dá)8600萬,而到了2008年這一數(shù)字已經(jīng)達(dá)到10956萬人了；其次,我國人口老齡化的發(fā)展速度非�？�。我國大約用了不到20年的時(shí)間就完成了大多數(shù)西方國家要經(jīng)過50-80年的時(shí)間從人口成年型轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槔夏晷偷倪^程。最后,我國目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)水平則仍處于發(fā)展中國家的階段,而人口老齡化的發(fā)展速度已經(jīng)大大超過了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的速度,并且已經(jīng)超過西方發(fā)達(dá)國家的程度,“未富先老”的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況對(duì)我國的社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保障體系提出了巨大的挑戰(zhàn),也給現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)帶來沉重的壓力。因此,準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)我國未來人口老齡化的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),可以為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的決策提供科學(xué)的參考依據(jù),對(duì)于加速推進(jìn)我國現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)有著極為重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文的研究內(nèi)容即我國人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。由于我國人口老齡化問題還存在區(qū)域差異性,因此,要想深入、全面、準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測(cè)我國未來人口老齡化的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),就必須從整體與區(qū)域兩個(gè)角度去分析。為此,本文將采用量化分析的方法,從整體和區(qū)域兩個(gè)層面去分析和研究我國人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。全文可概括分為引言、現(xiàn)狀、預(yù)測(cè)分析、對(duì)策四大部分。其中引言部分為第 第二章,將詳細(xì)介紹本文研究的背景、目的、意義、本文結(jié)構(gòu)、以及在研究過程中涉及的概念的定義、數(shù)據(jù)的來源和研究的方法等。第三章為我國老年人口發(fā)展階段及老齡化現(xiàn)狀分析,在這一章中,首先從1949年建國至2008年對(duì)我國老年人口的發(fā)展歷程做一個(gè)回顧,分為四個(gè)階段。具體分為第一階段：老年人口發(fā)展的恢復(fù)期,第二階段：老年人口發(fā)展的過渡期,第三階段：老年人口發(fā)展的發(fā)展期,第四階段：老年人口發(fā)展的加速期。然后,根據(jù)我國人口統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒公布的數(shù)據(jù),我國在2000年正式進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì),因此將從2000年開始,從整體和分區(qū)域兩個(gè)角度分析我國人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀,并根據(jù)分析的結(jié)果總結(jié)現(xiàn)階段我國人口老齡化的特點(diǎn)。第四章為我國人口老齡化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè),是本文的重點(diǎn)。在這一章中,將根據(jù)2000年第五次人口普查的數(shù)據(jù),利用PEOPLE軟件對(duì)我國未來人口老齡化的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)得出的結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。第五章為我國人口老齡化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的區(qū)域性量化分析,也是本文的重點(diǎn)。在這一章中,將根據(jù)第三章中我國區(qū)域人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀,利用SPSS軟件,對(duì)全國31個(gè)省市地區(qū)的老齡化狀況進(jìn)行聚類分析,在聚類的結(jié)果上再分區(qū)域選取具有代表性的省市地區(qū)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。最后,第六章為本文的對(duì)策部分,將綜合本文的預(yù)測(cè)分析結(jié)果給出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Twenty-first Century is the global population aging century, along with the global population aging, the aging of the population has a broad and profound impact on all aspects of human economic and social life, has increasingly become a major population concern of governments around the world. According to the UN Population Division in 2010 released "world population aging (2009) > (World Population Aging 2009) report shows that from 1950 to 2009, accounting for worldwide over 60 years and the proportion of the population over 65 has respectively from 8% and 5% to 11% and nearly 8%. of the population aging problem in China is also very prominent. First of all, a lot of elderly population in our country. In 1996 China's 65 years of age and older population has reached 86 million, and by 2008 this figure had already reached 109 million 560 thousand; secondly, the development speed of China's aging population of our country about very quickly. In less than 20 years to complete most of the western countries after 50-80 years from the population of adult type into old age. Finally, our current economic level is still in the stage of developing countries, and the development speed of the aging of the population has greatly exceeded the speed of economic development, and has more than the western developed countries, "challenges the reality not rich first old" on China's social security system, but also to the construction of modernization has brought heavy pressure. Therefore, the accurate prediction of China's future development trend of population aging, can provide scientific reference for our country the economic and social development decision-making, to accelerate the modernization of our country has very important practical significance.
The content of this study is the aging of China's population situation and development trend. Due to the existence of regional differences, China's aging population problem therefore, to in-depth, comprehensive, accurately predict the future development trend of China's aging population, it is necessary to analyze from two angles of the whole and area. Therefore, this paper will use the method of quantitative analysis, to analyze from two aspects and the whole region and the study of China's aging population situation and development trend. This paper can be broadly divided into the introduction, the status quo, prediction analysis, countermeasures of four parts. The first part of the introduction of the
The second chapter introduces the research background, purpose, significance, the paper structure, and defines the concepts involved in the research process, data sources and research methods. The third chapter is the analysis of the development stage of China's aging population and aging status, in this chapter, first from 1949 to 1949 in 2008 a review on the development process of China's elderly population, divided into four stages. The first stage is divided into: the development of the elderly population during the recovery period, the second stage: the transition period, the development of the elderly population in third stages: the period of development, the development of the elderly population in fourth stages: the acceleration of the development of the elderly population then. According to the China population statistics yearbook, published data, China officially entered the aging society in 2000, so from the beginning of 2000, the analysis of China's aging population is two from the perspective of the overall and sub domain, according to the The analysis results of China's aging population characteristics at this stage. The fourth chapter is the prediction of China's aging population development trend, is the focus of this paper. In this chapter, according to the 2000 fifth census data, predict China's future population aging development trend by using PEOPLE software. And the prediction results were analyzed. The fifth chapter is the quantitative analysis of regional development trend of China's aging population, but also the focus of this article. In this chapter, the third chapter will be based on the status quo of regional population ageing in China, using SPSS software, clustering analysis on the aging status of the 31 in the provinces and regions, clustering results into regional representative provinces and regions were predicted, and the prediction results are analyzed. Finally, the sixth chapter is the countermeasures part of this paper, the analysis results of this paper will be comprehensive prediction Give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 蔡茜;向華麗;;我國農(nóng)村老齡化現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)分析——基于第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)分析[J];湖北職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2013年01期

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本文編號(hào)：1676191