本文選題：老年人　切入點(diǎn)：老年人力資源勞動(dòng)力　出處：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：“老齡化”的產(chǎn)生來源于兩個(gè)方面：一是出生率的降低：二是死亡率的下降。貴州省于2003年步入老齡化社會(huì)。對(duì)于貴州省而言，近五年的出生率平均為13．67％c，，死亡率保持在6．66％0上下。相對(duì)于90年代22．3‰的出生率與7．96‰的死TL=率，兩者都有明顯的大幅下降。以貴州省2010年常住人口3479萬人計(jì)算，不存在遷移情況下，每年人口增長24．36萬人。60歲及以上人口占總?cè)丝诘谋戎刂鹉晟仙�，�?990年的7．1％上升到2000年9．4％，發(fā)展的速度很快。隨之而來，如何保障老年人的晚年生活的問題丞待解決。 2009年全省勞動(dòng)力人口數(shù)量雖然達(dá)到2339．7萬以上，與此同時(shí)就業(yè)人口規(guī)模達(dá)到2322．46萬人。勞動(dòng)力人口目前雖然沒有顯現(xiàn)規(guī)模下降的趨勢(shì)，但是總撫養(yǎng)比上升使得勞動(dòng)力人口的社會(huì)壓力增大。老齡化的趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)是再明顯不過了，由于出生人口的減少，不論時(shí)間的長短，勞動(dòng)力總是會(huì)出現(xiàn)短缺的情況。老年人力資源開發(fā)成為緩解勞動(dòng)力以及勞動(dòng)力人口擾養(yǎng)壓力的可取途徑。 本文主要分為老齡化理論部分、貴州省老年人口現(xiàn)狀、人口結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)、老年人力資源開發(fā)與利用可行性研究四個(gè)部分。本文采用貴州省第四次和第五次人口普查資料、貴州省2005年人口1％抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)、貴州省統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒和貴州省60年數(shù)據(jù)。運(yùn)用第四次和第五次人口普查資料，以貴州省目前人口現(xiàn)狀為基，采用多區(qū)域離散人口模型塒貴州省分年齡、性別人口預(yù)測(cè)，得到高、中、低t辦案分年齡、性別人¨數(shù)量。同時(shí)，根據(jù)因內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值發(fā)展趨勢(shì)設(shè)定發(fā)展方案預(yù)測(cè)勞動(dòng)力缺口，并以目前老年人口的就業(yè)和健康水平為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，計(jì)算LH能夠再就業(yè)的老年人口數(shù)量，作為老年人力資源數(shù)量。 主要研究結(jié)果：2014～2022年間，勞動(dòng)力人口規(guī)模將達(dá)到峰值，總?cè)丝趯⑦_(dá)到2500萬至2560萬之間，，之后將逐漸減少。2035年～2045年間勞動(dòng)力人口會(huì)持續(xù)十年較穩(wěn)定，為2100萬～2200萬。2045年之后將會(huì)進(jìn)入持續(xù)的人口減少期，勞動(dòng)力人將會(huì)大幅減少。老齡人口將在2060年左右到達(dá)峰值，約1570萬人，規(guī)模相當(dāng)于目前全省人口的44％。2010年貴州省80歲及以上人口總數(shù)為52萬人，2015年預(yù)測(cè)增加至77．6萬，2020年預(yù)計(jì)增加到111．7萬人，而到2050年時(shí)預(yù)計(jì)為430．2萬人，相當(dāng)于2010年時(shí)的8倍之多，不論是增長速度還是數(shù)量都相當(dāng)驚人。根掘預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，老年人口數(shù)將最終于2l[)(]年左右穩(wěn)定，屆時(shí)，人口結(jié)構(gòu)將會(huì)嚴(yán)重老齡化甚至為嚴(yán)重高齡化結(jié)構(gòu)。2015年將出現(xiàn)50萬的勞動(dòng)力缺口，在2040年前后，勞動(dòng)力需求會(huì)大于60歲及以上老年人口總量。勞動(dòng)力缺口的出現(xiàn)是社會(huì)發(fā)展的必然，防患于未然，在勞動(dòng)力缺口沒有造成社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響之前，需找到解決之方。一是科技的迅速發(fā)展，使得勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率大大提高，從而降低勞動(dòng)力需求，這種情況下也可能還是有勞動(dòng)力缺口的存在；二是，在科技進(jìn)步使得勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率提高，但是仍存在勞動(dòng)力缺口的情況時(shí)老年人力資源開發(fā)與利用便是最現(xiàn)實(shí)與最經(jīng)濟(jì)的路徑。以2020年為例，老年人力資源能夠提供的再就業(yè)人數(shù)為123．14萬人，而勞動(dòng)力缺口三種方案預(yù)計(jì)分別需要225萬、147萬與90．4萬人，尚不能完全滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的要求，但是可以大大的緩解就業(yè)需求的壓力。
[Abstract]:The "source of aging" from two aspects: one is to reduce the birth rate: two mortality rate is decreased. The aging society in Guizhou province in 2003. In Guizhou Province, nearly five years the average birth rate is 13.67%c, mortality rate was maintained on 6.66%0. Compared with the birth rate of 22.3 per thousand in 90s the death rate of TL=% and 7.96, both significantly decreased significantly. In Guizhou Province, in 2010 the resident population of 34 million 790 thousand people, there is no migration, the annual population growth of 243 thousand and 600.60 years old and above population proportion of the total population increased year by year, hill rose from 7.1% in 1990 to 9.4% in 2000, the development speed is very fast. In the same time, how to protect the elderly problems to be solved.
The number of the province in 2009 although the labor population reached more than 23 million 397 thousand, while employment population reached 23 million 224 thousand and 600. Although the labor force did not show the scale of the downward trend, but the increase in the total dependency ratio makes the labor force the social pressure increases. The trend of aging is more obvious, due to the reduction of birth population, regardless of the length of time. There will always be a shortage of labor. The development of elderly human resource has become the proper way of labor and labor force relief support pressure.
This paper is mainly divided into aging theory, present situation of aged population in Guizhou, forecast the changes of population structure, the four part of the development of elderly human resource and utilization feasibility study in Guizhou province. This paper uses the fourth and the fifth census data, Guizhou Province in 2005 1% population sample survey data, data statistical yearbook of Guizhou province and Guizhou province for 60 years. The fourth and the fifth census data, the current population situation in Guizhou Province as the base, using the multi regional discrete population model in Guizhou Province on age, gender, population prediction, high, low, t handling age, number of people ". At the same time, according to the development trend of GDP for setting the development plan forecast labor the gap, and in the current elderly population employment and health standards, can calculate LH number of the elderly population re employment, as the number of elderly human resources.
The main research results: 2014~2022 years, labor population will reach a peak between the total population will reach 25 million to 25 million 600 thousand, after.2035 years will be gradually reduced to 2045 years of labor population lasts ten years is relatively stable, reduce the period of 21 million ~ 22 million.2045 years will enter the continuous population, labor people will significantly reduce the aging population. Will reach a peak around 2060, about 15 million 700 thousand people, equivalent to the size of the province's population of 44%.2010 in Guizhou Province, the population aged 80 and over a total of 520 thousand people, 2015 increased to 776 thousand in 2020 is expected to increase to 1 million 117 thousand, and by 2050 is expected to 4 million 302 thousand, equivalent to 8 times in 2010 when many whether the growth rate or quantity are quite amazing. According to the prediction results, the elderly population will eventually (2l[)] years stable, then, will be a serious old population structure At the age of.2015 years or even the structure will appear 500 thousand serious shortage of workers in the elderly, before and after 2040, the labor demand will be greater than the total population aged 60 and above. The labor gap is the inevitable result of social development, nip in the bud, before the development of social economy influence did not result in the labor gap, to find a solution to the party. One is the rapid development of science and technology, which greatly improve labor productivity, reduce labor demand, this situation may still have labor gap; two, the productivity in the progress of science and technology, but there are still labor gap when the old human resources development and utilization is the most realistic and the most economical the path. For example in 2020, re employment of the elderly human resources to provide for 1 million 231 thousand and 400 people, and the labor gap three schemes were projected to 2 million 250 thousand, 1 million 470 thousand and 904 thousand people can not fully meet the requirements of rapid economic development, but can greatly alleviate the pressure on employment demand.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F249.27;C924.24

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本文編號(hào)：1623014