本文選題：城市化率　切入點(diǎn)：人口城市化　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自1978年改革開放以來,我國(guó)經(jīng)歷了約30年高速發(fā)展的城市化過程,人口與土地是這一過程的兩個(gè)基本方面。本文首先分析了我國(guó)人口城鎮(zhèn)化的現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)各省的人口規(guī)模與城鎮(zhèn)化率相對(duì)位置較為穩(wěn)定研究,然后主要研究了人口城市化與土地城市化兩者間的關(guān)系,分別使用城鎮(zhèn)人口規(guī)模與建成區(qū)面積作變量,首先構(gòu)建了全國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)人口規(guī)模與建成區(qū)面積的雙變量時(shí)間序列VAR模型,應(yīng)用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)人口規(guī)模變化是建成區(qū)面積變化的Granger原因,而建成區(qū)面積的變化不是城鎮(zhèn)人口規(guī)模變化的Granger原因；然后以此結(jié)論為基礎(chǔ),再應(yīng)用省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型回歸分析我國(guó)省級(jí)單位內(nèi)的建成區(qū)面積與城鎮(zhèn)人口規(guī)模、第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值之間的相關(guān)性,發(fā)現(xiàn)回歸結(jié)果在1%的水平上具有高度的顯著性,并且第一產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值的變化與建成區(qū)面積的變化呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,其他變量的變化與建成區(qū)面積的變化都成正向關(guān)系。其中城鎮(zhèn)人口規(guī)模的相關(guān)強(qiáng)度最高,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值依次降低。這說明城市人口規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大、服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展、以及地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)向工業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)變與工業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)城市建成區(qū)面積擴(kuò)張的貢獻(xiàn)依次降低。因此驗(yàn)證了在城市化的進(jìn)程中,人的城市化是核心,非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展是輔助手段,土地城市化是其載體,而非刺激因素,由此得以厘清土地與人口在城市化進(jìn)程中關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has experienced a rapid development of urbanization for about 30 years. Population and land are two basic aspects of this process. It is found that the relative position of population scale and urbanization rate in each province is relatively stable, and then the relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization is mainly studied, using urban population size and area of built-up area as variables, respectively. Firstly, a two-variable time series VAR model of urban population size and area is constructed. The Granger causality test is used to find that the change of urban population size is the Granger cause of the area change. And the change of the area of the built-up area is not the Granger reason of the change of the urban population scale, and then based on the conclusion, the author uses the provincial panel data model to regress the area of the built-up area and the urban population scale in the provincial units of our country, first, second, It is found that the regression result is highly significant at the level of 1%, and the change of the primary industry GDP is negatively related to the change of the area of the built-up area. The change of other variables is positively related to the change of the area of the built-up area. The correlation intensity of the size of urban population is the highest, the GDP of the tertiary industry, the gross domestic product of the primary industry, The GDP of the second industry has decreased in turn. This shows that the expansion of the urban population and the development of the service industry, The transformation from regional agriculture to industry and the contribution of industrial development to the expansion of urban built-up areas are reduced in turn. Therefore, it is verified that in the process of urbanization, the urbanization of human beings is the core, and the development of non-agricultural industries is the auxiliary means. Land urbanization is a carrier, not a stimulus factor, which can clarify the relationship between land and population in the process of urbanization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.2;C924.24;F301.2

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本文編號(hào)：1588191