本文選題：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)　切入點：少兒撫養(yǎng)比　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自我國改革開放以來,經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了高速發(fā)展,然而居民消費水平并不能與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長保持一致的增長速度,反而長期以來都是一個下降的趨勢,作為我國的一個經(jīng)濟(jì)大區(qū),東北的居民消費率雖然在最近幾年有緩慢的上升趨勢,但是從長期來看仍然是較為明顯的下降趨勢。在東北地區(qū)居民消費水平存在問題的情況下,探究影響居民消費的因素就存在很顯著的現(xiàn)實意義,因此本文站在人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的角度,分析其是否對東北地區(qū)居民消費存在顯著影響以及怎樣的影響。我們從理論分析和實證分析兩個角度入手,期待能夠得到一個比較完善的結(jié)果,并為我國東北地區(qū)日后的政策定制提供一定的理論基礎(chǔ)。近年來,我國東北地區(qū)人口特點突出,其中體現(xiàn)在人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)上的特點也較為明顯,一方面,東北地區(qū)少年撫養(yǎng)比持續(xù)下降,總和生育率低;另一方面,東北地區(qū)人口老齡化日趨加劇,遼寧省、吉林省和黑龍江省都先后進(jìn)入了老齡化社會。東北地區(qū)的居民消費率變化趨勢和全國相似,呈現(xiàn)一個整體下降的趨勢,根據(jù)其變化特點,可以將1985-2015年東北地區(qū)居民消費率的變化趨勢分為四個階段,分別是波動中整體下降階段、上升階段、略有波動的下降階段和緩慢上升階段。令人欣慰的是,近些年東北三省的居民消費率都有一個小幅度的上升趨勢。本文的研究結(jié)果表明,對于整個東北地區(qū)而言,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費率有著顯著影響,并且少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比對居民消費率都是正方向的影響。對于遼寧省、吉林省和黑龍江省單獨來說,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和居民消費率也是存在協(xié)整關(guān)系的,即二者之間存在長期的均衡關(guān)系,并且少兒撫養(yǎng)比、老年撫養(yǎng)比和居民消費率之間存在單向的因果關(guān)系,即少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比能夠影響居民消費率,但居民消費率并不能夠影響少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比。根據(jù)上述分析,我們認(rèn)為,積極應(yīng)對人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對居民消費的影響,應(yīng)從轉(zhuǎn)變居民消費觀念、多渠道提高生育水平、完善老年產(chǎn)業(yè),改善養(yǎng)老保障模式、貫徹延長退休年齡政策等方面采取相應(yīng)對策。
[Abstract]:Since China's reform and opening up, the economy has been developing at a high speed. However, the consumption level of the residents is not in line with the growth rate of the economic growth, on the contrary, it has been a downward trend for a long time, as a large economic region of our country. Although the consumption rate of residents in Northeast China has a slow upward trend in recent years, in the long run, it is still a more obvious downward trend. In the case of problems in the consumption level of residents in the Northeast region, It is of great practical significance to explore the factors that affect the residents' consumption, so this paper stands at the angle of the age structure of the population. This paper analyzes whether there is a significant impact on the consumption of residents in Northeast China and what kind of influence it has. We hope to get a more perfect result from the two angles of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In recent years, the characteristics of population in Northeast China are prominent, especially in the age structure of population. On the one hand, On the other hand, the aging of the population in Northeast China is getting more and more serious. In Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province have successively entered an aging society. The trend of change in the consumption rate of residents in Northeast China is similar to that of the whole country, showing an overall downward trend, according to its changing characteristics. From 1985 to 2015, the trend of change in the consumption rate of residents in Northeast China can be divided into four stages, namely, the period of overall decline of fluctuation, the stage of rising, the stage of slight fluctuation and the stage of slow rise. In recent years, the consumption rate of residents in the three provinces of Northeast China has a small upward trend. The results of this paper show that, for the whole Northeast region, the age structure of the population has a significant impact on the consumption rate of residents. For Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province alone, there is a cointegration relationship between the age structure of the population and the resident consumption rate. That is, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, and there is a one-way causal relationship between the child dependency ratio, the old age dependency ratio and the resident consumption rate, that is, the child dependency ratio and the old age dependency ratio can affect the resident consumption rate. According to the above analysis, we believe that to deal with the impact of the age structure of the population on the consumption of the residents, we should change the concept of consumption of the residents and raise the fertility level through multiple channels. To perfect the aged industry, to improve the old-age security model and to carry out the policy of prolonging the retirement age.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2;F126.1

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