發(fā)布時間：2018-03-06 07:07

  本文選題：老齡化　切入點：種植業(yè)　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和計劃生育政策的嚴格實施,人口出生率持續(xù)下降、人口平均壽命不斷延長,這使得我國人口年齡結構快速轉變,人口老齡化現(xiàn)象突出。到2010年,我國60歲以上的老齡人口已占我國總人口的13.26%。在我國農(nóng)村中,大規(guī)模的以青壯年為主的農(nóng)村勞動力向城市遷移,使得農(nóng)村的人口老齡化程度比城市更加嚴重。農(nóng)村人口結構的顯著變化也帶來了農(nóng)業(yè)勞動力年齡結構的顯著改變,農(nóng)業(yè)勞動力的平均年齡呈現(xiàn)逐年遞增的趨勢,且老齡勞動力占有較大比重。對此現(xiàn)象,很多學者表示堪憂,他們認為老齡人口一方面生理機能下降,自身體力不能勝任繁重的農(nóng)業(yè)勞動；另一方面老齡人口受教育程度低,思想僵化,不利于新的農(nóng)業(yè)技術的推廣和采用,從而會影響到我國農(nóng)業(yè)的生產(chǎn),甚至引發(fā)糧食安全問題。 但已有研究表明：一方面,在大田生產(chǎn)中,我國小規(guī)模農(nóng)戶受農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)條件或市場條件的外部約束而表現(xiàn)出集體決策(即農(nóng)戶種植決策和周圍人的種植決策具有普遍相似性)的形式。土地規(guī)模較小的小農(nóng)戶采取從眾決策將是一種理性選擇。大田農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(包括整個生產(chǎn)過程中涉及的生產(chǎn)技術)的易模仿性,并不需要經(jīng)營者個人具有特別高的決策能力,簡單模仿將大大降低對經(jīng)營者人力資本的需求；另一方面,近些年,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)機械在我國得到了長足的發(fā)展,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的大部分環(huán)節(jié)甚至全部環(huán)節(jié)都實現(xiàn)了機械化。農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)的機械化替代了經(jīng)營者的體力勞動,不但使得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中總的勞動投入量減少,還降低了經(jīng)營者的勞動強度(首先發(fā)展機械化的生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)一般是對經(jīng)營者勞動強度要求比較高的生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)),這將使得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)對經(jīng)營者體力方面的要求大大降低。 隨著越來越多的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)機械化的實現(xiàn),以及在實際農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中,我國小規(guī)模農(nóng)戶采取一定程度的集體決策形式,這使得農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)對勞動者體力與人力資本的要求沒有那么嚴格了。那么,老齡勞動力的體力下降和低人力資本還是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的嚴重制約因素嗎?由于種植業(yè)作物的機械綜合作業(yè)程度不同,以及作物生產(chǎn)技術的可模仿程度也有所不同,那么,老齡勞動力對不同作物的影響程度是否相同呢?反映在作物中,老齡化對作物生產(chǎn)影響程度不同的邊界可能是什么?圍繞這些問題本文對老年農(nóng)戶和年輕農(nóng)戶的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)行為進行了理論分析和實證考察,并對兩類農(nóng)戶在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)實踐中的集體決策程度和機械對勞動替代程度進行了深入訪談。本文主要研究內容和相關結論如下： 研究內容一：老齡化對農(nóng)戶種植決策的影響 本部分內容主要考察老齡勞動力與年輕勞動力在農(nóng)戶種植決策行為上的差異。如果兩類農(nóng)戶之間在作物種植決策行為上不存在差異,則表明作物現(xiàn)有生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)的機械化程度和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的集體決策形式足以抵消老齡勞動力的體力下降和低人力資本對農(nóng)戶種植決策的影響,老齡化不會影響到農(nóng)戶對該類作物的種植決策。反之,則表明作物現(xiàn)有農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)的機械化程度和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的集體決策形式還不足以抵消老齡勞動力的體力下降和低人力資本在農(nóng)戶種植決策中的作用,老齡化將影響到農(nóng)戶對該類作物的種植決策。 該內容的驗證可分為以下兩個子內容進行驗證： 子內容一：老齡化對農(nóng)戶種植面積決策的影響 該部分內容首先是根據(jù)作物機械綜合作業(yè)水平劃分為兩大類作物,再分別比較老齡農(nóng)戶與年輕農(nóng)戶在不同作物中農(nóng)戶種植面積決策行為的差異,來說明老齡化對農(nóng)戶種植面積是否產(chǎn)生影響。研究結果表明,在機械化程度高的大田作物中,如小麥、玉米和大豆,老齡農(nóng)戶與年輕農(nóng)戶種植面積沒有差異,而在機械化程度不太高或某些勞動強度大的環(huán)節(jié)未實現(xiàn)機械化的作物中,如水稻和棉花兩類作物,老齡農(nóng)戶與年輕農(nóng)種植面積表現(xiàn)出一定差異,老齡農(nóng)戶將傾向于減少該類作物的種植面積。 子內容二：老齡化對農(nóng)戶主要要素投入決策的影響 該內容的研究具體化為比較老齡農(nóng)戶與年輕農(nóng)戶在兩大類作物(作物劃分標準如子內容一,下同)的化肥、農(nóng)藥、機械和勞動用工量上是否存在差異。在作物主要要素投入中,對化肥和農(nóng)藥的使用量、使用時間以及使用種類的決策能力,體現(xiàn)了對經(jīng)營者相對較高人力資本的要求。而對作物機械投入和勞動用工量的決策,對經(jīng)營者人力資本的要求相對較低。研究結果表明,在現(xiàn)有農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)條件下,老齡勞動力與年輕勞動力在作物要素投入并未表現(xiàn)差異。這表明,無論作物機械化程度的高低,也無論投入要素對經(jīng)營者人力資本要求的高低,老齡農(nóng)戶在作物的主要要素投入上并不比年輕農(nóng)戶少。 研究內容二：老齡化對作物種植決策實施結果(單產(chǎn))的影響 對該內容的研究是對農(nóng)戶農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程的第二步實證,是對農(nóng)戶種植決策驗證之后的延續(xù),兩部分的結合才能最終確定老齡化對種植業(yè)是否存在影響。該部分主要是考察老齡勞動力與年輕勞動力在對作物種植決策實施結果上是否存在差異,也就是老齡勞動力從事的作物單產(chǎn)是否顯著差別于年輕勞動力從事的作物單產(chǎn)。如果兩者無明顯差別,則表明在作物種植決策相同的情況下,老齡農(nóng)戶實施種植決策的效果上與年輕農(nóng)戶沒有差別。反之亦然。實證結果表明,無論是在機械化程度高的作物還是在機械化程度低的作物上,兩類農(nóng)戶的單產(chǎn)并無顯著差異。通過農(nóng)戶類型與勞動用工量的交互項的考察發(fā)現(xiàn),兩類農(nóng)戶的勞動效率在大多數(shù)作物中并沒有顯著差異,但在玉米和大豆兩種作物中,老年農(nóng)戶的勞動效率要低于年輕農(nóng)戶的勞動效率,這可能是由于東北大規(guī)模經(jīng)營土地的農(nóng)戶大部分生產(chǎn)依靠自有機械而非雇傭機械。 研究內容三：現(xiàn)實農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)實踐中,農(nóng)戶集體決策的形式和機械對勞動的替代程度。 上述兩部分內容主要是對老年農(nóng)戶與年輕農(nóng)戶在作物生產(chǎn)行為上是否存在差異的實證檢驗,本部分內容是針對經(jīng)營者的體力與人力資本在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)實踐中是否產(chǎn)生影響的機理進行案例補充。本部分研究通過深入訪談的形式,著重了解農(nóng)戶是如何做出種植決策的?以及農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中哪些生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)實現(xiàn)了機械化?從而充分考察農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中集體決策的程度和機械對勞動的替代程度。通過訪談發(fā)現(xiàn),盡管農(nóng)戶分散、每戶經(jīng)營規(guī)模很小,但是,通過村里能人組織、非正式合作或者專業(yè)合作組織等形式,農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)決策和生產(chǎn)技術的同質程度很高。農(nóng)戶利用農(nóng)機“外包”服務的程度也很高,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中勞動強度大的生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)基本實現(xiàn)了機械化,剩下勞動強度小的生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)老年人能夠完全勝任。 綜合三大部分研究內容得出的主要結論可以概括為：在我國大田作物生產(chǎn)中,人地比例較小的農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)存在普遍的集體決策形式,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術易于模仿,老齡化對種植業(yè)生產(chǎn)的影響將因作物的機械化程度不同(對勞動者體力要求不同)而有所不同。從老齡化對小麥、玉米和大豆等機械化程度高的作物的種植決策以及種植決策實施結果均沒有顯著影響,到老齡化對水稻和棉花等機械化程度低(或者未實現(xiàn)機械化的生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)對勞動者體力要求較高)的作物種植決策(這兩種作物主要體現(xiàn)在種植面積決策的差異)上有顯著影響�？梢赃M一步推論,在農(nóng)戶必須獨立做出生產(chǎn)決策或者作物生產(chǎn)技術更新變化速度快或者無任何機械替代勞動的情況下,老齡化對該類作物的影響很可能不僅表現(xiàn)在作物種植決策上,還可能表現(xiàn)在作物種植決策的實施結果上,即老齡化對作物的影響將會更加明顯。 本研究在理論上的一個有意義的發(fā)現(xiàn)是：在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)存在集體決策和機械對勞動替代的情況下,人力資本在一些作物生產(chǎn)中的作用被弱化,甚至完全不起作用。但是,在集體決策程度或者機械替代勞動程度不高的情況下,人力資本的作用在就可能明顯表現(xiàn)出來。而老齡化是我國及今后很長一段時間必須面對的基本國情,因此,需要我們?yōu)椴粩鄿p弱人力資本對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)起作用的途徑和不利影響程度而努力。
[Abstract]:With China's social and economic development and the implementation of family planning policy, the birth rate continues to decline, the average life expectancy of the population continues to increase, which makes China's population age structure changes rapidly, the population aging phenomenon. By 2010, China's aging population over the age of 60 accounted for China's total population of 13.26%. in China in rural areas, large-scale young rural labor transfer to the city, the degree of population aging in rural areas than in the city more serious. Significant changes in rural population structure also brings the age structure of the agricultural labor force changed significantly, the average age of agricultural labor force increasing year by year, and the aging labor force account for a large proportion. This phenomenon, many scholars said worrying, they think the aging population on the one hand, physiological function decline, its strength is not equal to the heavy agricultural labor; on the other hand The low education level and rigid ideology of old people are not conducive to the popularization and adoption of new agricultural technology, which will affect the production of Chinese agriculture and even cause food security problems.
But studies have shown that: on the one hand, in the field production, the external constraints of small-scale farmers in our agricultural production conditions or market conditions and the performance of the collective decision-making (i.e. farmers planting decision and people around the planting decision with general similarity) in the form of land. The small herd of small farmers take decisions will be a kind of rational choice. The field of agricultural production technology (including production technology involved in the whole process of easy imitation), does not require managers with particularly high decision-making ability, simple imitation will greatly reduce the operator of human capital demand; on the other hand, in recent years, agriculture machinery has been considerable development in our in China, most of the links of agricultural production or all links has realized mechanization. Mechanization of agricultural production processes instead of the operator's manual labor, not only makes the agricultural production The total labor input has been reduced, and the labor intensity of operators has also been reduced. First, developing mechanized production links is generally a production link requiring higher labor intensity for operators, which will greatly reduce the requirements of agricultural producers for physical strength of operators.
With more and more agricultural production mechanization, and in the actual agricultural production, small-scale farmers in our country take the form of collective decision-making to a certain extent, the requirements for workers physical and human capital in agricultural production is not so strict. So, the old age labor's physical decline and low human capital or agricultural production the serious restriction factor? Because of the comprehensive machinery degree of planting crops, and crop production technology can imitate different, then aging labor force effects on different crops are the same? Reflected in crops, the impact of aging on different levels of crop production may be what the boundary? The theoretical analysis and Empirical Study on agricultural production behavior of these problems this article on the elderly farmers and young farmers, and the two types of farmers in agricultural production. The degree of collective decision-making in the practice and the degree of labor substitution are interviewed. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
Research content 1: the influence of aging on Farmers' planting decision
This part mainly inspects the aging labor force and young labor decision-making behaviors in different growing farmers. If there is no difference between the two types of farmers in crop planting behavior, it shows that the effects of collective decision-making form of existing production link crop mechanization and agricultural production to offset the decline in physical strength and low aging labor force of human capital decision on Farmers' planting, aging does not affect the farmers of the crop planting decision. On the contrary, that the existing agricultural production crop mechanization and agricultural production of the collective decision form is not enough to offset the decline in physical aging labor force and low human capital planting decision in the role of farmers, aging the impact on Farmers' crops planting decision.
The verification of the content can be divided into the following two sub contents to verify:
Sub content 1: the influence of aging on Farmers' planting area decision
The first part is based on the comprehensive operation level of agricultural machinery are divided into two kinds of crops, the differences were compared with young aged farmers farmers in different crops in the planting area of decision-making behavior, to illustrate the influence of aging on the farmers planting area is produced. The results show that the high degree of mechanization of field crops. Such as wheat, corn and soybeans, there is no difference between the farmers and farmers aged young planting area, and in the degree of mechanization is not too high or some large labor intensity link without mechanization in crops, such as rice and cotton crops two, aging farmers and agricultural young planting area showed some differences, aging farmers will tend to to reduce the crop acreage.
Sub content two: the influence of aging on the investment decision of the main elements of farmers
The concrete research content as compared with young aged farmers farmers in the two categories of crops (crops such as a sub division standard, the same below) of chemical fertilizer, pesticide, the existence of machinery and labor quantity difference. In the main elements of crops, of fertilizer and pesticide usage, use time and use types decision making reflects the operators relatively high human capital requirements. On crop machinery inputs and labor labor quantity decision of executive human capital requirements are relatively low. The results show that, under the existing conditions of agricultural production, labor and aging young labour did not show differences in crop inputs. This shows that whether the crops mechanization level, regardless of input factors on the level of executive human capital requirements, aging farmers in the main factors of crop input than younger farmers.
Research content two: the effect of aging on the outcome of crop planting decision making (single yield)
Study on the content of the second step is the empirical agricultural production process, after verification is a continuation of the planting decision of the farmers, according to the two part of the final impact of aging on the existence of planting industry. This part is the study of aging labor force and young labor is in on crop planting decision results are different, crop yield is crop yield is significant difference in aging labor force in the young labor force engaged in. If there is no significant difference between them, indicates that in the crop planting decision under the condition of the same aged farmers planting decision on the effect and implementation of young farmers have no difference. And vice versa. The empirical results show that both in the degree of mechanization the crops with high or low degree of mechanization of crop yield, there was no significant difference between the two types of farmers. The farmers type and amount of labor Investigation of interaction found two categories of farm labor efficiency in most crops and there is no significant difference, but in the corn and soybean crop in two, aged farmers labor efficiency is lower than that of the young farmers' labor efficiency, this may be due to large-scale land management in Northeast farmers mostly rely on its own production machinery rather than employ machinery.
Research content three: in practical agricultural production practice, the form of farmers' collective decision-making and the degree of substitution of machinery to labor.
The two part is the main content of the empirical test whether there are differences in crop production behavior of farmers and young elderly farmers, this part is the case of physical and human capital mechanism for operators is influenced in agricultural production practice. This part of research through in-depth interviews, focus on understanding how the farmers make the planting decision? And agricultural production in which production realized mechanization? To fully examine the extent and mechanism of collective decision-making in agricultural production. The degree of substitution of labor through interviews found that although farmers scattered, household scale is very small, but the village people, informal cooperation or professional cooperation organization the form, homogeneity of farmers production decision and production technology is very high. Farmers use agricultural "outsourcing" service is also very high level, agricultural production The production link with large labor intensity has basically realized mechanization, and the old people with small labor intensity can be fully competent.
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