本文選題：肉類消費(fèi)　切入點(diǎn)：人口結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《中國(guó)軟科學(xué)》2014年11期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：基于全國(guó)6個(gè)城市1340戶家庭飲食消費(fèi)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),本文實(shí)證分析了人口老齡化對(duì)畜禽肉類消費(fèi)的影響,并據(jù)此模擬了人口老齡化對(duì)我國(guó)未來(lái)肉類消費(fèi)需求的可能影響。研究結(jié)果表明:人口老齡化顯著影響居民人均肉類消費(fèi)量,家庭中60歲以上老年人比例每增加l%會(huì)導(dǎo)致家庭人均肉類消費(fèi)量減少0.5%;同時(shí),模擬分析結(jié)果表明,如果不考慮人口老齡化因素,會(huì)導(dǎo)致對(duì)2030年我國(guó)肉類消費(fèi)需求量高估約5.6%。研究結(jié)果對(duì)于分析我國(guó)社會(huì)老齡化背景下的肉類需求及由此導(dǎo)致的食物安全與飼料糧安全問(wèn)題、以及相關(guān)政策制定具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 1340 households' dietary consumption in six cities of China, this paper empirically analyzed the effect of aging population on the consumption of livestock and poultry meat. Based on this, the possible impact of population aging on the future meat consumption demand of China is simulated. The results show that the aging population significantly affects the per capita meat consumption. An increase of 1 per cent in the proportion of people over 60 years of age in households will result in a 0.5 per cent reduction in the per capita consumption of meat in households. At the same time, the simulation results show that if the ageing population is not taken into account, In 2030, the demand for meat consumption in China will be overestimated by about 5.6%. The results of the study are of great significance to the analysis of the demand for meat under the background of aging society in China, the problems of food safety and feed food safety caused by it, and the formulation of relevant policies.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;德國(guó)萊布尼茲漢諾威大學(xué)發(fā)展與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;中國(guó)人民大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)與農(nóng)村發(fā)展學(xué)院;中國(guó)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)政策研究中心;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金(2014RC017) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71273009和71222302)資助
【分類號(hào)】：F326.3;C924.2

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本文編號(hào)：1572783