本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)人口老齡化對(duì)財(cái)政平衡的影響研究　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 老齡化 財(cái)政收支 財(cái)政平衡 改進(jìn)后的動(dòng)態(tài)路徑模型

【摘要】：根據(jù)我國(guó)第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國(guó)65歲及以上老年人口占8.87%,比2000年第五次人口普查上升1.91個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)的保守預(yù)測(cè),我國(guó)65歲及以上人口占比最早將在2025年達(dá)到甚至超過(guò)14%�？梢�(jiàn)我國(guó)老齡化形式嚴(yán)峻。老齡化帶來(lái)的社會(huì)問(wèn)題諸多：勞動(dòng)力短缺、國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降、社會(huì)福利下降等。另外,通過(guò)影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)方面,老齡化還會(huì)影響政府的財(cái)政收支,進(jìn)而影響政府財(cái)政的平衡。 本文主要研究了我國(guó)人口老齡化與財(cái)政平衡之間的關(guān)系。文章開(kāi)篇第一、二、三章首先介紹了我國(guó)老齡化的現(xiàn)狀以及目前老齡化研究的理論成果,接著采取定性的方式分析了人口老齡化對(duì)于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)各個(gè)方面的不良影響,以及對(duì)財(cái)政平衡的影響。 在本文第四、五章,作者分別建立了老齡化對(duì)財(cái)政平衡影響的兩個(gè)模型：一般線性回歸模型和改進(jìn)后的動(dòng)態(tài)路徑模型。在模型基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)實(shí)證分析的方式,研究了短期與長(zhǎng)期兩個(gè)角度下人口老齡化對(duì)財(cái)政平衡的影響。最終得出：短期內(nèi),老齡化對(duì)財(cái)政平衡的影響不顯著；但在長(zhǎng)期,老齡化對(duì)財(cái)政平衡具有顯著影響的結(jié)論。如果政府不采取適當(dāng)?shù)拇胧?十年后老齡化將會(huì)成為政府巨額財(cái)政赤字的關(guān)鍵影響因素。 論文第六章,在總結(jié)定性與定量分析結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,為解決人口老齡化對(duì)財(cái)政平衡影響的問(wèn)題提供了可行的政策建議。解決老齡化問(wèn)題的原則是：既不能操之過(guò)急,也不能放任不管。通過(guò)逐步推進(jìn)的方式,穩(wěn)步解決人口老齡化問(wèn)題,及其對(duì)財(cái)政平衡的影響。
[Abstract]:According to the data of the sixth census in China , the population accounts for 8.87 % of the population aged 65 years and over , up by 1.91 percentage points than the fifth census in 2000 . According to the conservative forecast of the United Nations , China ' s aged 65 and above will reach even more than 14 % in 2025 . The social problems brought by aging are many : shortage of labor force , declining national economy , declining social welfare , etc . In addition , the aging will also affect the government ' s financial revenue and expenditure by influencing all aspects of the national economy , which will affect the balance of government finances . This paper mainly studies the relationship between population aging and fiscal balance in our country . First , two and three chapters introduce the present situation of aging in our country and the theoretical results of the research on aging , and then take a qualitative analysis of the adverse effects of aging on all aspects of social economy , as well as the effect on fiscal balance . In the fourth and fifth chapters , the author establishes two models : general linear regression model and improved dynamic path model . Based on the model , the effects of aging on fiscal balance in short - term and long - term are studied . Chapter 6 , based on the conclusion of qualitative and quantitative analysis , provides a feasible policy suggestion to solve the problem of population ageing on fiscal balance . The principle of solving aging problem is that it is neither too urgent nor allowed to let go . Through the gradual promotion , the problem of population ageing is steadily solved , and its influence on fiscal balance is steadily solved .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F812.0;C924.24

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