本研究調(diào)查了 1980年至2016年期間,二氧化碳排放、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、能源消耗、貿(mào)易開放和恐怖主義對(duì)巴基斯坦旅游業(yè)收入的影響。采用兩個(gè)ARDL模型分析了這些因素對(duì)旅游業(yè)發(fā)展的短期和長(zhǎng)期影響。結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了兩個(gè)模型中旅游發(fā)展假設(shè)的存在性。模型1考察了二氧化碳排放、GDP、能源消費(fèi)和貿(mào)易開放對(duì)旅游收入的影響。研究表明,旅游收入與其決定因素之間存在著較強(qiáng)的正長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系。本研究進(jìn)一步應(yīng)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),確定了二氧化碳、GDP、能源消費(fèi)和貿(mào)易開放對(duì)旅游收入的單向因果關(guān)系。本研究也使用動(dòng)態(tài)一般最小二乘(DOLS)技術(shù)來獲得長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)健估計(jì)。同時(shí),本研究還采用了創(chuàng)新的會(huì)計(jì)方法,即方差分解和脈沖生產(chǎn)函數(shù),從結(jié)果中得出的總體結(jié)論是,二氧化碳與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、能源消耗、貿(mào)易開放程度和游客收入之間的雙向因果關(guān)系被向量誤差修正模型的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系所證實(shí)。這意味著結(jié)果是穩(wěn)健的。此外,脈沖響應(yīng)分析的結(jié)果支持游客收入與貿(mào)易開放互為因果關(guān)系的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系�？傮w結(jié)果表明,旅游收入、二氧化碳排放、能源消費(fèi)和貿(mào)易開放是相互關(guān)聯(lián)的。此外,本研究還發(fā)現(xiàn),二氧化碳排放以及由此產(chǎn)生的能源消耗對(duì)旅游需求變化的反應(yīng),從長(zhǎng)期來看是一種積極的、增長(zhǎng)的力量。...

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：188 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
DEDICATION
ABSTRACT
摘要
Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Introduction
    1.2 Research Problem
    1.3 Objectives of the Study
    1.4 Research Questions
    1.5 The Significance of the Study
    1.6 The Scope of the Study
    1.7 Organization of the Study
Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Theoretical Literature
        2.1.1 Tourism Develoment
        2.1.2 Role of Tourism in Economic Growth
        2.1.3 Carbon dioxide Emission (CO₂)
        2.1.4 Energy Consumption
        2.1.5 Trade Openness
        2.1.6 Terrorism
    2.2 Empirical Literature
        2.2.1 Tourism and Economic Growth
        2.2.2 Tourism and CO₂ Emission
        2.2.3 Tourism and Energy Consumption
        2.2.4 Tourism and Terrorism
        2.2.5 Tourism and Trade Openness
    2.3 Literature from Pakistan Perspective
    2.4 Summary of Literature Review
    2.5 Research Gap Identification
Chapter 3 TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN
    3.1 Tourism in Pakistan
        3.1.1 Religious Tourism
        3.1.2 Historical and Archaeological Tourism
        3.1.3 Ecotourism
        3.1.4 Adventure Tourism
    3.2 The Importance of the Tourism Industry for Pakistan's Economy
        3.2.1 National Tourism in Pakistan
        3.2.2 International Tourism in Pakistan
    3.3 Pakistan Competitive Position in Tourism
    3.4 International Ranking of Pakistan on Travel and Tourism Competitive Index
    3.5 Challenges Faced by the Tourism Industry of Pakistan
        3.5.1 Negative Image of Pakistan as Tourists destinations
        3.5.2 Safety and Security
        3.5.3 The absence of Private Sector Investment in Tourism Sector
        3.5.4 Lack of Proper Promotion and Marketing
        3.5.5 Tourism Infrastructure
        3.5.6 Poor Human Resource Development
    3.6 Terrorism in Pakistan
        3.6.1 Decline of Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism in Pakistan
    3.7 Conclusion
Chapter 4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
    4.1 Research Approach and Design
    4.2 Data Collection and Statistical Validity
    4.3 Sources of Data Collection
    4.4 Theoretical Framework
    4.5 Econometric Modeling and Hypothesis of the Study
        4.5.1 Model 1: To Investigate the Impact of CO₂ emission, GDP per capita, Consumption ofEnergy and International Trade on Tourism Receipts in Pakistan
        4.5.2 Model 2: To Investigate the Impact of Terrorism Intensity and GDP on TourismReceipts in Pakistan
    4.6 Methodology to Achieve the Objectives
        4.6.1 Unit Root Tests
        4.6.2 Model Selection Criteria
        4.6.3 Tests of Cointegration
        4.6.4 Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) Model
        4.6.5 Model Specification and Diagnostic Tests
Chapter 5 ESTIMATION, RESULTS,AND ANALYSIS
    5.1 Objective One of the Study:To Investigate the Impact of CO₂ emission, Economic GrowthEnergy Consumption, Trade Openness on Tourist Receipts in Pakistan
        5.1.1 Unit Root Test (Objective 1)
        5.1.2 ARDL General (Objective 1)
        5.1.3 ARDL Cointegration Test (Objective 1)
        5.1.4 ARDL Long-run Results (Objective 1)
        5.1.5 ARDL short-run results (Objective 1)
        5.1.6 Diagnostic Tests (Objective 1)
        5.1.7 Ramsey's RESET Test Results (Objective 1)
        5.1.8 CUSUM and CUSUMSQ Test Results (Objective 1)
    5.2 Granger Causality (Objective 1)
    5.3 Dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) model (Objective 1)
    5.4 Innovative Accounting Approach
        5.4.1 Variance Decomposition Approach
        5.4.2 Impulse Response Analysis
    5.5 Objective Two of the Study: To Investigate the Impact of Terrorism Intensity andEconomic Growth on Tourism Receipts in Pakistan
        5.5.1 Unit Root Results (Objective 2)
        5.5.2 ARDL Cointegration Test Results (Objective 2)
        5.5.3 ARDL General (Objective 2)
        5.5.4 The ARDL long-run results (Objective 2)
        5.5.5 ARDL Short-run Results (Objective 2)
        5.5.6 Diagnostic Test Results (Objective 2)
        5.5.7 CUSUM and CUSUMSQ Tests Results (Objective 2)
    5.6 Granger Causality Results
    5.7 Summary of the Chapter
Chapter 6 SUGGESTIONS
    6.1 Areas for Tourism Development in Pakistan
        6.1.1 Development of Historical Sites
        6.1.2 Development of Tourist's Destinations in Pakistan
    6.2 Future Strategies for Tourism Development in Pakistan
        6.2.1 Promoting Sustainable Growth
        6.2.2 Tourism Infrastructure and Business Environment
    6.3 Future Develoment Indicators
        6.3.1 Technological Advancement
        6.3.2 Heritage and Infrastructure Development
        6.3.3 Marketing and Promotion of Tourist Destinations
    6.4 Policy Formulation and Implementation
        6.4.1 Upgradation of Standards of the Hotel Industry
        6.4.2 Protection of Beaches
        6.4.3 Encouragement of public-private collaboration
Chapter 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    7.1 Summary of the Study
    7.2 Findings and Conclusions of the First Objective
    7.3 Findings and Conclusions of the Second Objective
    7.4 Contributions and Implications of the study
        7.4.1 Contribution to Literature
        7.4.2 Methodological Contribution
        7.4.3 Theoretical Implications
        7.4.4 Practical Implications
NOTES
References
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Research Papers



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