政治制度對巴基斯坦油價波動和PPI的影響
發(fā)布時間：2021-04-30 03:33
本論文旨在研究巴基斯坦政治區(qū)制的改變對石油價格波動和生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的影響。本文基于考察期內(nèi)巴基斯坦19年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),首先運用相關(guān)分析和回歸分析等統(tǒng)計手段分析了變量之間存在的數(shù)量關(guān)系和特征,進一步使用GARCH模型進行了相關(guān)預(yù)測。結(jié)論證實了國際政治對石油價格波動具有非常關(guān)鍵的影響,油價波動對宏觀經(jīng)濟變量,如工資,CPI指數(shù),購買意愿和實際支付,預(yù)算赤字和經(jīng)濟拉動,通貨膨脹率以及其他宏觀經(jīng)濟因素都有顯著性的影響。本研究結(jié)果進一步表明,就巴基斯坦而言,政治穩(wěn)定比石油價格波動對生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的影響更大,政治穩(wěn)定性與生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)之間存在顯著的負相關(guān)關(guān)系。研究還發(fā)現(xiàn),對于巴基斯坦而言,石油價格波動對生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)的影響并不如預(yù)期那樣顯著。因此,巴基斯坦應(yīng)該考慮其他地緣政治因素來適應(yīng)油價的波動,應(yīng)盡量減少政治干預(yù)。巴基斯坦和其他相似發(fā)展中國家應(yīng)該充分考慮石油價格波動與政治區(qū)位的互動影響,這對更有效地管理國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟事務(wù)至關(guān)重要。
【文章來源】：山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)山西省
【文章頁數(shù)】：68 頁
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【文章目錄】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the study
Hypothesis of the Study
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE
2.1 Importance of Oil
2.2 Oil and International Politics
2.3 Oil Price and different Economies(Examples)
2.3.1 Oil and Venezuela
2.3.2 Oil and America
2.3.3 Oil and China
2.4 Oil Price and PPI
2.5 Oil prices and the economics of resource exhaustion
2.5.1 Oil production in the United States,1859-2010
2.5.2 World oil production,1973-2010
2.6 Oil Price and Geopolitics
2.6.1 Falling Oil Prices and Domestic Instability
2.6.2 American Policy in the Middle East and Falling Oil Prices
2.7 Oil Prices Trend in Pakistan
CHAPTER3:RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Research Philosophy
3.3 Research Approach
3.4 Research Design
3.5 Type of Investigation
3.6 Research Variables
3.7 Building a Time Series Model
3.8 Presentation of Model
3.9 Data Collection Method
3.10 Data Analysis Technique
3.11 Research Limitation
CHAPTER4:ANALYSIS
4.1.Introduction
4.2.Correlation Analysis
4.3.Descriptive Statistics
4.4.Unit root analysis
4.5.Regression Analysis
4.6.GARCH Model
4.7.Results of GARCH Model Tests
4.7.1 GARCH Model-1
4.7.2 GARCH Model-2
4.7.3 GARCH Model-3
CHAPTER5:RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Findings and Discussion
CHAPTER6:RECOMMENDATIONS and LIMITATIONS
6.1.Recommendations
6.2.Limitations of the Study
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
Historical Data
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
本文編號：3168753
【文章來源】：山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)山西省
【文章頁數(shù)】：68 頁
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【文章目錄】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the study
Hypothesis of the Study
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE
2.1 Importance of Oil
2.2 Oil and International Politics
2.3 Oil Price and different Economies(Examples)
2.3.1 Oil and Venezuela
2.3.2 Oil and America
2.3.3 Oil and China
2.4 Oil Price and PPI
2.5 Oil prices and the economics of resource exhaustion
2.5.1 Oil production in the United States,1859-2010
2.5.2 World oil production,1973-2010
2.6 Oil Price and Geopolitics
2.6.1 Falling Oil Prices and Domestic Instability
2.6.2 American Policy in the Middle East and Falling Oil Prices
2.7 Oil Prices Trend in Pakistan
CHAPTER3:RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Research Philosophy
3.3 Research Approach
3.4 Research Design
3.5 Type of Investigation
3.6 Research Variables
3.7 Building a Time Series Model
3.8 Presentation of Model
3.9 Data Collection Method
3.10 Data Analysis Technique
3.11 Research Limitation
CHAPTER4:ANALYSIS
4.1.Introduction
4.2.Correlation Analysis
4.3.Descriptive Statistics
4.4.Unit root analysis
4.5.Regression Analysis
4.6.GARCH Model
4.7.Results of GARCH Model Tests
4.7.1 GARCH Model-1
4.7.2 GARCH Model-2
4.7.3 GARCH Model-3
CHAPTER5:RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Findings and Discussion
CHAPTER6:RECOMMENDATIONS and LIMITATIONS
6.1.Recommendations
6.2.Limitations of the Study
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
Historical Data
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
本文編號：3168753
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