【摘要】：泰國政局的持續(xù)動(dòng)蕩表明先天不足的泰式民主已經(jīng)走入死胡同。泰國政治危機(jī)的根源是以他信為代表的新興政治家族與長期"統(tǒng)而不治"的泰國王室的權(quán)力博弈。泰國近十年來的政局動(dòng)蕩表現(xiàn)為議會(huì)內(nèi)的政黨之爭、紅黃(衫軍)的街頭對(duì)抗等多種形式。本文以SPS震蕩波理論為分析框架,發(fā)現(xiàn)S波因子和P波因子在泰國危機(jī)中都是核心表現(xiàn)要素,尤其是P波因子在2013年12月以來的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩中得到準(zhǔn)確的詮釋。這些S波因子和P波因子交織在一起,互相影響、交互作用,形成了上下顛簸、左右搖蕩的震蕩傳導(dǎo),使泰國的社會(huì)危機(jī)和政治動(dòng)蕩愈演愈烈,造成了前所未有的困境。
[Abstract]:The continuing political turmoil in Thailand shows that Thai-style democracy, which is inherently inadequate, has come to a dead end. The root of Thailand's political crisis is the power game between the new political family represented by Thaksin and the long-term "unified but not ruling" Thai royal family. Thailand's political turmoil over the past decade has taken the form of political parties in parliament, red-yellow street confrontations and other forms. Based on SPS's shock wave theory, this paper finds that both S-wave factor and P-wave factor are the core factors in the Thai crisis, especially the P-wave factor has been accurately interpreted in the social unrest since December 2013. These S-wave factors and P-wave factors interweave together, mutual influence, interaction, form the ups and downs, left and right swaying vibration conduction, make Thailand's social crisis and political instability more and more intense, resulting in unprecedented difficulties.
【作者單位】： 上海交通大學(xué)國際與公共事務(wù)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金重大計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“面向非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論與方法”的階段性成果,項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào):91324202
【分類號(hào)】：D733.6
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本文編號(hào)：2435322