本文選題：戰(zhàn)后 + 美國　； 參考：《外交學(xué)院》2002年博士論文

【摘要】： 本論文利用國際系統(tǒng)層次分析法和國內(nèi)政治層次分析法，分析比較威脅、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)、軍控和費用5因素在冷戰(zhàn)后對美國發(fā)展國家導(dǎo)彈防御政策的影響，并得出結(jié)論認為： 第一、美國發(fā)展國家導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)的動因是威脅、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)、軍控和費用等5個因素相互共同作用的結(jié)果。 第二、威脅、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)、軍控和費用等5個因素對美國發(fā)展國家導(dǎo)彈防御的影響作用不同。這些影響具體表現(xiàn)在如下4個方面：在同一時期表現(xiàn)為不同的因素對最終政策的影響程度不同；每個因素既可能表現(xiàn)為推動作用，，也可能表現(xiàn)為制約作用；每個因素既可能從相對的客觀存在出發(fā)，也可能從主觀的判斷出發(fā)影響美國發(fā)展國家導(dǎo)彈防御的進程；在不同的時期表現(xiàn)為，同一因素對最終的政策影響程度可能不同。 第三、在每個時期，威脅、戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)、軍控和費用等5個因素都受到美國國內(nèi)政治與國際政治的影響，美國國內(nèi)政治對這些因素的影響大于國際政治的影響。美國國內(nèi)政治對發(fā)展國家導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)的觀點主要有左、中、右三種，政府的立場往往采取中間路線。 第四、影響美國發(fā)展國家導(dǎo)彈防御的核心因素是戰(zhàn)略因素。 第五、威脅因素是調(diào)整國家導(dǎo)彈防御政策的重要“依據(jù)”。 第六、技術(shù)因素的客觀決定作用受國內(nèi)政治影響而減弱。 第七、軍控因素、費用因素很重要，但作用有限。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) of the International system and the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in domestic politics to analyze the impact of comparative threat, strategy, technology, arms control and cost on the US national missile defense policy after the Cold War. The conclusions are as follows: first, the motivation for the development of the NMD system in the United States is threat, strategy, and technology. The result of five factors, such as arms control and cost. Second, the five factors of threat, strategy, technology, arms control and cost have different effects on the development of national missile defense. These effects are manifested in the following four aspects: different factors have different influence on the final policy in the same period; Each factor may affect the process of US development of NMD from both objective relative existence and subjective judgment, and the same factor may have different influence on the final policy in different periods. Thirdly, in each period, five factors, such as threat, strategy, technology, arms control and cost, are influenced by the domestic and international politics of the United States, and the influence of the domestic politics of the United States on these factors is greater than that of the international politics. There are three main views on the development of national missile defense system in American domestic politics: left, middle and right. Fourth, the core factor affecting the US development of NMD is the strategic factor. Fifth, the threat factor is an important basis for adjusting the national missile defense policy. Sixth, the objective determinant role of technical factors is weakened by domestic political influence. Seventh, the arms control factor, the expense factor is very important, but the function is limited.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：外交學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2002
【分類號】：D815

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