本文關(guān)鍵詞： 交通管理 戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃 系統(tǒng)分析 對策　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2004年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國現(xiàn)代化和城市化進(jìn)程的加快,城市交通需求量急劇增長,城市交通問題日趨嚴(yán)重。為了解決城市交通問題,過去人們總是把希望寄托于城市道路及其交通設(shè)施的建設(shè)上,使得城市交通(建設(shè))規(guī)劃的理論研究日臻成熟。但中國的城市交通問題仍然沒有解決,人們越來越意識到僅靠道路建設(shè)是不能解決交通問題的,管理與建設(shè)同等重要,并且在交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)初具規(guī)模后,現(xiàn)代化的交通管理對解決交通問題更有作用。因此,近年來,人們已經(jīng)開始把解決交通問題的重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到了交通管理上。但由于以前建立的城市交通規(guī)劃理論實(shí)質(zhì)上是城市交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)規(guī)劃理論,不能面向交通管理,城市交通管理部門在進(jìn)行交通管理時(shí)缺乏理論指導(dǎo),缺乏科學(xué)的決策支持手段,交通管理中存在著盲目管理的現(xiàn)象,使交通管理的作用不明顯,甚至出現(xiàn)負(fù)面效應(yīng)。本文旨在通過對濟(jì)南市交通管理規(guī)劃中若干問題的分析與研究,希望能為濟(jì)南市制定出符合自身實(shí)際的、具有前瞻性的交通管理規(guī)劃提供一點(diǎn)幫助,以有效控制日益尖銳的供需矛盾,為濟(jì)南市經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康有序、持續(xù)高效發(fā)展創(chuàng)造良好的交通環(huán)境。 本文的章節(jié)安排及主要內(nèi)容:第一章是城市道路交通管理規(guī)劃簡述,共闡述了交通管理規(guī)劃的定義及其在解決交通問題中的地位,原則和研究內(nèi)容、研究方法四方面內(nèi)容,分析中將交通管理規(guī)劃劃分為兩個(gè)層次,即戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃和專項(xiàng)規(guī)劃,研究中使用圖表是本章的特點(diǎn);第二章是濟(jì)南市交通管理戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃研究,本章以濟(jì)南城市交通發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究為例,介紹濟(jì)南市城市交通癥結(jié)之所在、分析城市交通面臨的挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇、制定出城市交通發(fā)展目標(biāo)和策略、提出了交通管理戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃研究的技術(shù)思路;第三章是濟(jì)南市交通管理專項(xiàng)規(guī)劃研究。根據(jù)濟(jì)南市的實(shí)際情況,通過大量數(shù)據(jù)分別從出行方式、摩托車、私人汽車、靜態(tài)管理四方面面向問題進(jìn)行分析,其中運(yùn)用指數(shù)平滑法對小客車的數(shù)量進(jìn)行了定量預(yù)測;第四章是城市道路交通管理規(guī)劃的整合與展望,從交通管理的角度概括了建立可持續(xù)發(fā)展的城市道路交通系統(tǒng)的對策體系。 本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新在于:一是通過實(shí)證研究,強(qiáng)化管理和調(diào)控手段,落實(shí)交通系統(tǒng)管理和交通需求管理,實(shí)現(xiàn)資源的有效使用;二是運(yùn)用指數(shù)平滑法,建立數(shù)學(xué)模型,對濟(jì)南市小客車數(shù)量進(jìn)行了科學(xué)預(yù)測;三是提出了新的觀點(diǎn)“城市重要截面的交通將和核心區(qū)一樣,將成為交通管理關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)”;四是將交通管理規(guī)劃由“以車為本”向“以人為本”轉(zhuǎn)變,真正實(shí)現(xiàn)長效交通管理。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of modernization and urbanization in China, the demand for urban transportation is increasing rapidly, and the urban traffic problem is becoming more and more serious. In the past, people always put their hopes on the construction of urban roads and transportation facilities, which made the theoretical study of urban transportation (construction) planning more and more mature. However, the problem of urban transportation in China has still not been solved. People are becoming increasingly aware that road construction alone cannot solve traffic problems, that management is as important as construction, and that modern traffic management is more effective in solving traffic problems after the beginning of the traffic network. Therefore, in recent years, People have begun to shift the focus of solving traffic problems to traffic management. However, because the theory of urban traffic planning established before is essentially a theory of urban transportation infrastructure construction planning, it cannot be oriented to traffic management. The urban traffic management departments lack of theoretical guidance and scientific decision support means when carrying out traffic management. There is a phenomenon of blind management in traffic management, which makes the role of traffic management not obvious. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and study some problems in Jinan traffic management planning, hoping to provide some help for Jinan city to formulate a forward-looking traffic management plan, which is in line with its own reality. In order to effectively control the increasingly sharp contradiction between supply and demand, Jinan's economy is healthy and orderly, and a good traffic environment is created for sustainable and efficient development. The first chapter is a brief description of urban road traffic management planning, which expounds the definition of traffic management planning and its position in solving traffic problems, principles and research contents, research methods, four aspects. In the analysis, traffic management planning is divided into two levels, namely, strategic planning and special planning. Taking Jinan city traffic development strategy as an example, this chapter introduces the crux of Jinan city traffic, analyzes the challenges and opportunities faced by the city traffic, and formulates the urban traffic development goals and strategies. The third chapter is the research on the special planning of traffic management in Jinan. According to the actual situation of Jinan, through a large number of data from travel modes, motorcycles, private cars, Static management of four aspects of problem-oriented analysis, including the use of exponential smoothing method for quantitative prediction of the number of small passenger cars, 4th chapter is the integration of urban road traffic management planning and prospects, From the point of view of traffic management, this paper summarizes the countermeasure system of establishing sustainable development of urban road traffic system. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, through empirical research, strengthen management and control means, implement traffic system management and traffic demand management, and realize the effective use of resources; second, use exponential smoothing method to establish mathematical model. The number of passenger cars in Jinan is predicted scientifically. Thirdly, a new viewpoint is put forward: "the traffic of important sections of the city will be the same as the core area." The fourth is to change the traffic management plan from "car-based" to "people-oriented" to realize long-term effective traffic management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2004
【分類號】：D631.5

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