本文選題：腐敗　切入點(diǎn)：絕對(duì)腐敗水平　出處：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：腐敗,號(hào)稱“經(jīng)濟(jì)之癌”。全世界所有的民族、國(guó)家和地區(qū),不論貧富、大小,也不論層次和領(lǐng)域,都會(huì)有腐敗滲透其間。即便是美國(guó)這樣的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,歷史上也一度非常腐敗�？梢�(jiàn),腐敗是一種世界性的社會(huì)歷史現(xiàn)象,并不是中國(guó)獨(dú)有的畸形景觀。對(duì)于腐敗問(wèn)題,中國(guó)歷屆黨和國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都把它提到了很高、很嚴(yán)峻的層次,并采取相應(yīng)措施反腐敗。特別是2012年中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨第十八次全國(guó)代表大會(huì)之后,反腐力度空前,上至政治局常委,下至普通干部,只要有問(wèn)題,皆有可能被查辦,可謂“既打老虎又拍蒼蠅”。毋庸置疑,腐敗和反腐敗會(huì)對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生一系列深遠(yuǎn)影響。那么,它們會(huì)如何影響外商直接投資?尤其是當(dāng)前的反腐大潮,它與外商直接投資之間是什么關(guān)系?基于此背景,我們推出了本選題——《腐敗、反腐敗與外商直接投資》。從文獻(xiàn)搜索結(jié)果可知,國(guó)內(nèi)外目前對(duì)外商直接投資的研究已經(jīng)很多,涉及的面也比較廣,方法也較為成熟。盡管如此,從反腐敗角度來(lái)研究外商直接投資的文獻(xiàn)還很少,絕大多數(shù)文獻(xiàn)考察的是腐敗水平對(duì)外商直接投資的影響,而且關(guān)于中國(guó)的研究寥寥無(wú)幾。比照既有文獻(xiàn),可以看出本文的貢獻(xiàn)主要體現(xiàn)在兩方面:1、從絕對(duì)腐敗水平和相對(duì)腐敗水平(腐敗水平差異)兩方面比較分析腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)的腐敗與外商直接投資之間存在倒U型關(guān)系;2、考察了反腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資的影響,提出并檢驗(yàn)“反腐敗與外商直接投資的U型假說(shuō)”。本研究與以往文獻(xiàn)的一大區(qū)別還在于,我們注重影響的非線性(非單調(diào)性)。盡我們所知,本文是第一篇探討腐敗水平差異對(duì)中國(guó)外商直接投資影響的文獻(xiàn),是第二篇關(guān)注反腐敗對(duì)中國(guó)FDI影響的中文文獻(xiàn)�？梢灶A(yù)期,我們的研究可進(jìn)一步豐富外商直接投資文獻(xiàn),具有理論意義。本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容主要分為以下幾部分:1、測(cè)度中國(guó)的腐敗水平和反腐敗力度,并簡(jiǎn)要介紹中國(guó)外商直接投資的基本情況。這些內(nèi)容將分散到相關(guān)章節(jié)作為實(shí)證分析的背景知識(shí)。2、從理論和邏輯上探討腐敗、反腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資的影響機(jī)制,并提出相關(guān)假設(shè)。就直覺(jué)而言,它們對(duì)外商直接投資的影響可能會(huì)隨著發(fā)展階段、資金來(lái)源地、企業(yè)性質(zhì)和行業(yè)狀況等方面的不同而有所差異。3、基于引力模型,實(shí)證分析腐敗、反腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資的影響。腐敗方面,主要采用世界銀行發(fā)布的全球治理指數(shù)(wgi)和美國(guó)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)服務(wù)團(tuán)隊(duì)(prsgroup)的分項(xiàng)指標(biāo)來(lái)測(cè)度腐敗水平。一是做中國(guó)1984—2013年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)分析,考察絕對(duì)腐敗水平對(duì)外商直接投資的影響。二是考察中國(guó)2000—2013年相對(duì)腐敗水平與fdi的關(guān)系,參照中國(guó)的腐敗程度將122個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體分為“相對(duì)清廉組”和“相對(duì)腐敗組”,在兩分法的基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)地緣文化分列出“儒家文化圈”。對(duì)于反腐敗,主要是基于中國(guó)1998—2013年的省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)展開(kāi),提出并檢驗(yàn)反腐敗與外商直接投資的“u型”假說(shuō),探討其政策含義。通過(guò)機(jī)制探討和實(shí)證分析,本文的主要結(jié)論如下:1、在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的初級(jí)階段或者腐敗水平處于較低的狀態(tài)時(shí),腐敗的存在能在一定程度上提升交易效率,促進(jìn)外商直接投資的流入;當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展到一定程度時(shí),人們對(duì)公平和透明營(yíng)商環(huán)境的呼聲變得強(qiáng)烈,此時(shí)的腐敗不利于吸引外商直接投資。這說(shuō)明腐敗既是外商直接投資的“沙子”,也是“潤(rùn)滑劑”,它扮演著雙重角色。概言之,絕對(duì)腐敗水平對(duì)fdi的影響遵從倒u型軌跡。2、相對(duì)腐敗水平(腐敗水平差異)與外商直接投資負(fù)相關(guān),但這種影響具有非對(duì)稱性。具體而言,屬于相對(duì)清廉組的經(jīng)濟(jì)體大概在10%的水平上顯著,屬于相對(duì)腐敗組的國(guó)家和地區(qū)在1%的水平上顯著,而屬于儒家文化圈的經(jīng)濟(jì)體僅顯示出負(fù)向關(guān)系,并不怎么顯著。這些差別說(shuō)明不同的國(guó)家(或地區(qū))特質(zhì)決定了它們對(duì)同一因素存在不同的反應(yīng)。3、從資金來(lái)源地看,對(duì)于清廉經(jīng)濟(jì)體,中國(guó)降低腐敗水平(亦即加大反腐敗力度)有利于吸引來(lái)自這些國(guó)家和地區(qū)的直接投資;對(duì)于高腐敗經(jīng)濟(jì)體,腐敗的存在反而能吸引來(lái)自這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的直接投資。也就是說(shuō),它們的政策含義是相反的。但就長(zhǎng)期的凈效應(yīng)而言,為了吸引更多的外商直接投資,我們的腐敗水平應(yīng)該向清廉經(jīng)濟(jì)體趨同。也就是說(shuō),通過(guò)反腐敗來(lái)吸引更多的外資。4、反腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資的影響在幾何上呈現(xiàn)出u型特征。這意味著外商直接投資的增加與反腐敗力度的增強(qiáng)不一定是同步的,外商對(duì)中國(guó)的反腐敗存在一個(gè)反應(yīng)時(shí)間。其寓意是,在初始階段,反腐敗很可能會(huì)降低外商直接投資,原因也許在于來(lái)自高腐敗經(jīng)濟(jì)體fdi的減少效應(yīng)超過(guò)了來(lái)自清廉經(jīng)濟(jì)體fdi的增加效應(yīng)。當(dāng)然,這種階段性或暫時(shí)性的減少不一定體現(xiàn)為投資額度的減少,更可能反映在投資增速的減緩上。在u型曲線的右邊,隨著反腐敗的繼續(xù)推進(jìn),投資和商業(yè)環(huán)境益加改善,投資者對(duì)反腐敗的正面預(yù)期趨穩(wěn)。屆時(shí),來(lái)自清廉國(guó)家或地區(qū)fdi的增加效應(yīng)便會(huì)超過(guò)來(lái)自高腐敗經(jīng)濟(jì)體fdi的減少效應(yīng),凈效應(yīng)為正,外商直接投資增加。5、從控制變量來(lái)看,經(jīng)濟(jì)集聚程度的提高、人力資本水平的提升、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施狀況的改善、直接標(biāo)價(jià)法下匯率的升值、政策扶持力度的加強(qiáng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)向好皆能促進(jìn)外商直接投資的流入。政治環(huán)境差異與fdi正相關(guān),說(shuō)明外商敢于去政治環(huán)境不同的地區(qū)開(kāi)展投資活動(dòng)。我們的估計(jì)結(jié)果還顯示工資水平與外商直接投資正相關(guān),其機(jī)制可能在于,在勞動(dòng)力供求狀況不變的情況下,工資水平上升是勞動(dòng)力質(zhì)量改善的價(jià)值實(shí)現(xiàn),同時(shí)也是高勞動(dòng)力質(zhì)量的信號(hào),而且高工資水平往往還代表著較高的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模和消費(fèi)水平。負(fù)效應(yīng)方面,本文的研究顯示文化差異、政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的控制和地理距離皆會(huì)抑制外商直接投資的流入。此外,相對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模和相對(duì)人口規(guī)模皆與外商直接投資正相關(guān),對(duì)外商直接投資具有引力作用。當(dāng)然,這種影響對(duì)不同腐敗水平的經(jīng)濟(jì)體也是存在差別的。對(duì)于來(lái)自清廉經(jīng)濟(jì)體和儒家文化圈的直接投資而言,相對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模有負(fù)向影響,相對(duì)人口規(guī)模則表現(xiàn)為促進(jìn)作用。相對(duì)腐敗組的情形正好與此相反。綜合我們的研究,可以看出既有文獻(xiàn)之所以對(duì)腐敗、反腐敗與外商直接投資的關(guān)系存在爭(zhēng)議,除了同研究者所關(guān)注的時(shí)期、地區(qū)和采用的方法有關(guān)外,還在于大多數(shù)研究單純從絕對(duì)水平來(lái)探討它們的關(guān)系,或者僅僅考察它們的線性關(guān)系,而忽略了可能存在的非線性關(guān)系。我們的工作無(wú)疑能在一定程度上彌合爭(zhēng)議,推進(jìn)相關(guān)研究的開(kāi)展。由實(shí)證研究引申出的政策含義主要有:中國(guó)需要反腐敗;在反腐過(guò)程中要更加注重制度建設(shè)、要注意穩(wěn)定和調(diào)整市場(chǎng)預(yù)期;要繼續(xù)提升人力資本水平、繼續(xù)改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施狀況,加大政策扶持力度,以吸引外資流入;同時(shí)也要減少政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的控制,讓市場(chǎng)在資源配置中真正起到基礎(chǔ)性作用。當(dāng)然,本文也存在著一些遺憾,這也是本文的不足。數(shù)據(jù)資料的限制,使得我們?cè)诜治鼋^對(duì)腐敗水平對(duì)外商直接投資的影響時(shí),只能從事全國(guó)層面的時(shí)間序列分析,造成研究結(jié)論略顯粗糙。在探討反腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資的影響時(shí),未能探討中國(guó)反腐敗對(duì)外商直接投資影響的行業(yè)效應(yīng)和企業(yè)效應(yīng),也未能從總案件中分離出大案、要案的影響。理論上,不同行業(yè)、不同屬性的企業(yè)對(duì)腐敗、反腐敗會(huì)存在不同的反應(yīng)。而且,與一般案件相比,查辦大案、要案更能顯示中國(guó)政府反腐敗的決心和力度,它們的影響可能會(huì)更顯著。但由于《中國(guó)檢察年鑒》和《中國(guó)法律年鑒》各省市大案、要案的信息缺失嚴(yán)重,筆者沒(méi)辦法從總案件中析出大案、要案的面板數(shù)據(jù)。在第三章和第四章的實(shí)證分析中,數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源略顯單一,不便進(jìn)行穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),這也是一個(gè)不足。若有相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)資料,本研究將會(huì)更為深入。該領(lǐng)域的下一步研究工作可在腐敗、反腐敗的測(cè)度和數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)建設(shè),腐敗水平差異與外商直接投資,反腐敗與外商直接投資三大層面展開(kāi),考察反腐敗的企業(yè)效應(yīng)和行業(yè)效應(yīng)。重點(diǎn)關(guān)注中國(guó)反腐敗實(shí)踐可能帶來(lái)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,尤其要注意其影響的非線性特征,及時(shí)提煉、發(fā)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,讓相關(guān)研究相得益彰。
[Abstract]:Corruption, known as the "economic cancer". All the peoples of the world, countries and regions, rich or poor, regardless of size, level and field, there will be corruption during the infiltration. Even in developed countries such as the United States, the history was also very corrupt. Obviously, corruption is a kind of social and historical phenomenon of the world that is not a unique landscape. China deformity over corruption, the party and state leaders China it referred to a very high level, very serious, and take corresponding measures to anti-corruption. Especially in 2012 Chinese eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party after the unprecedented anti-corruption efforts, to the standing Committee of the Political Bureau, to ordinary cadres, as long as there is a problem, there are likely to be investigated, can be described as "both tigers and flies. There is no doubt that corruption and anti-corruption will produce a series of far-reaching influence on the social and economic development. So, how they will influence Foreign direct investment? Especially the current tide of corruption, between it and foreign direct investment is what relation? Based on this background, we introduced the topic: "corruption, anti-corruption and foreign direct investment. The search results from the literature, there have been a lot of research at home and abroad, foreign direct investment, the surface is more extensive, method is relatively mature. However, to study foreign direct investment from the perspective of anti-corruption literature are few, the vast majority of the literature examines the impact of corruption on the level of foreign direct investment, and the research on China. According to scanty literatures, we can see that the contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects: 1 from the absolute and relative levels of corruption, corruption level (the level of corruption difference) two aspects of comparative analysis of the effect of corruption and foreign direct investment, Chinese found between corruption and foreign direct investment. In the inverted U type; 2, the effects of anti-corruption of foreign direct investment, propose and test "U hypothesis" anti-corruption and foreign direct investment. The research and literature of a big difference lies, we focus on the nonlinear effects (non monotonic). As we know, the is the first to investigate the effects of differences in the level of corruption Chinese foreign direct investment literature, is the second focus on anti-corruption of China FDI affected Chinese literature. It can be expected that our research can further enrich the literature of foreign direct investment, has theoretical significance. The research content of this paper is mainly divided into the following parts: 1, the Chinese measure the level of corruption and anti-corruption efforts, and briefly introduces the basic situation of China foreign direct investment. The content will be distributed to relevant chapters as an empirical analysis of the background knowledge of.2, to investigate corruption from the theory and logic of anti-corruption. The influence mechanism of foreign direct investment, and puts forward the relevant hypothesis. On intuition, they influence the foreign direct investment may be with the stage of development, the source of funds, enterprise property and industry status of different.3, based on the gravity model, the empirical analysis of corruption, anti-corruption effect of foreign direct investment. Corruption, mainly by the world bank's global governance index (WGI) and the American political risk service team (prsgroup) of the index to measure the level of corruption. One is the analysis of time series data Chinese 1984 - 2013, the influence of the absolute level of corruption of foreign direct investment. The two is to investigate Chinese 2000 - 2013 the relative levels of corruption and the relationship between the FDI and the level of corruption in the China refer to 122 economies into "relatively clean" and "relative corruption group", based on dichotomy method according to the In the "geo cultural circle of Confucian culture". For anti-corruption, mainly is the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2013 based on the Chinese, propose and test anti-corruption and foreign direct investment "U" hypothesis, discuss its policy implications. Through analyzing the mechanism and empirical study, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, in low status in the primary stage of economic development and the level of corruption, corruption can improve transaction efficiency to a certain extent, promote the inflow of foreign direct investment; when the economic and social development to a certain extent, voice of the people of the fair and transparent business environment becomes strong, the corruption is not conducive to attracting foreign direct this shows that corruption is not only investment. Foreign direct investment "sand", is the "lubricant", it plays a dual role. In general, the absolute level of corruption effect on FDI compliance from the inverted U-shaped trajectory .2, the relative level of corruption (corruption level difference) and foreign direct investment are negatively correlated, but this effect is asymmetric. Specifically, belongs to the economy is relatively clean about the group is statistically significant at the 10% level, which belongs to the group of countries and regions relative corruption at the 1% level of significant economies, and belongs to the Confucianism the cultural circle shows only a negative relationship is not significant. These differences illustrate how different countries (or regions) nature determines that they exist on the same.3 different reaction factors, from the source of funds, for the clean economy, Chinese reduced the level of corruption (i.e. strengthening anti-corruption) to attract direct investment from these countries and regions; for the high corruption economy, the existence of corruption but can attract direct investment from these economies. That is to say, their policy implications are opposite. But the net effect of long-term Speaking, in order to attract more foreign direct investment, we should be honest to the level of corruption in the economy convergence. That is to say, the anti-corruption to attract more foreign.4, influence of anti-corruption foreign direct investment show u characteristics in geometry. This means that the foreign direct investment and increase anti-corruption efforts the enhancement is not synchronized, the Chinese of foreign anti-corruption is a reaction time. Its meaning is, in the initial stage, anti-corruption is likely to reduce the foreign direct investment, perhaps it is because from the high corruption economy FDI reduction effect exceeds the increase effect from clean economy FDI. Of course, this stage or a temporary reduction does not necessarily reflect the reduced amount of investment, may reflect in slowing the growth rate of investment in the right side of the U-shaped curve, with the anti-corruption continue to promote investment and business cycles More and more investors to improve the environment, anti-corruption is expected to stabilize. Then, increase the effect from clean countries or regions will be more than FDI from the high corrupt economy FDI reduction effect, the net effect is positive, increased foreign direct investment.5, from the view of the control variable, agglomeration economy increase, the human capital level, infrastructure improvement, direct quotation appreciation of the exchange rate policy to support efforts to strengthen and improve the economic growth can promote the inflow of foreign direct investment. The political environment difference is positively correlated with FDI, dare to explain foreign political environment in different regions to carry out investment activities. Our estimation results also show direct investment wages with the level of foreign positive correlation, the possible mechanism is that, in the same situation of labor supply and demand, rising wages of labor quality improvement in the value realization, but also high The signal quality of the labor force, and high wages often represent a higher market scale and the consumption level. The negative effect, this study shows that cultural differences, control of the economy and the government will inhibit the inflow of geographic distance of foreign direct investment. In addition, the relative economic scale and relative population size and foreign direct investment positive correlation with gravitational effect on foreign direct investment. Of course, the impact of economy on different levels of corruption also exist difference. For direct investment from honest economy and the Confucian cultural circle, which has a negative impact on the economic scale, the relative population size is promoted. The relative situation of group corruption is just the opposite. We can see the comprehensive research, the existing literature on the controversial relationship between corruption, anti-corruption and foreign direct investment, in addition to the same Research Institute On time, area and methods of research, is the most simple from the absolute level to discuss their relationship, or just study their linear relationship, while ignoring the possible nonlinear relationship. Our work is to a certain extent, bridging the dispute, to promote related studies. The policy meaning from the empirical research are: China to anti-corruption; in the anti-corruption process should pay more attention to the system construction, pay attention to the stability and adjustment of market expectations; to continue to enhance the level of human capital, continue to improve the infrastructure, increase policy support efforts to attract foreign capital inflows; and also to reduce government control of the economy. Let the market in the allocation of resources to play a fundamental role. Of course, there are also some regret, which is insufficient. The limit of data, so that we In the analysis of absolute levels of corruption affect foreign direct investment, time series analysis can only be engaged in the national level, resulting in the conclusion of the study is slightly rough. To explore the effect of anti-corruption in foreign direct investment, industry effect and effect of enterprises failed to China anti-corruption impact of FDI, from the total cases also failed to separate the major cases influence. In theory, different industries, different attributes of corporate corruption, anti-corruption will have different reactions. Moreover, compared with the general case of investigating major cases, can show Chinese government commitment and efforts to anti-corruption, their impact may be more significant. But as a result of < Chinese attorney Yearbook Yearbook > > and < Chinese legal cases of major provinces and cities, the lack of information is serious, I can't from the general case in precipitation cases, panel data cases. In the third chapter and the fourth chapter of the empirical In the analysis, data from a single run not robustness test, it is also a problem. If there is any relevant data, this study will be more in-depth. The next step of the research work in the field in corruption, anti-corruption measure and database construction, differences in the level of corruption and foreign direct investment, and foreign anti-corruption direct investment to start the three levels. The study of enterprise anti-corruption effect and industry effect. Chinese focus on anti-corruption practice may bring economic and social impact, nonlinear characteristics, paying particular attention to the impact of the timely extraction, found the problem, let the related research complement each other.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D262.6;F832.6

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