本文選題：網(wǎng)絡口碑 + 網(wǎng)上書店　； 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 隨著WEB技術的發(fā)展,電子商務網(wǎng)站發(fā)展迅速,網(wǎng)上書店應運而生,并以其方便、快捷等一系列優(yōu)點沖擊著傳統(tǒng)的圖書發(fā)行產(chǎn)業(yè)。對于曾在網(wǎng)上購物的國內(nèi)網(wǎng)民,最受歡迎的網(wǎng)上商品是書籍,許多購物者都選擇了在網(wǎng)上購書。網(wǎng)上書店不僅擁有豐富的圖書產(chǎn)品,也包含著大量有價值的網(wǎng)絡口碑數(shù)據(jù),諸如顧客評論、各類銷售榜單等,值得注意的是,網(wǎng)絡口碑的重要價值已日益受到消費者和企業(yè)的關注。因此,充分利用網(wǎng)上書店豐富的網(wǎng)絡口碑資源,從網(wǎng)絡口碑角度研究網(wǎng)上書店銷售具有實踐意義,也可以為網(wǎng)上書店營銷策略研究給予參考。 本文所采集的數(shù)據(jù)均來自當當網(wǎng),利用網(wǎng)上書評對銷量預測影響因素進行分析,獲取影響銷量的關鍵因素,并據(jù)此構建銷量預測模型。實驗表明顧客評論對于網(wǎng)上圖書銷售有相當重要的影響,評論較多的圖書更容易受到顧客的關注,通過評論數(shù)量的增長可以對某本圖書的銷量進行預測,其中存在明顯的正相關關系。對于不同的圖書類別,顧客評論對于銷售預測數(shù)增長的影響確實存在差異性。通過數(shù)據(jù)量化驗證,在顧客評論數(shù)量相同的條件下,某類別圖書的閱讀人群范圍越大,其銷量通常也越大。 在網(wǎng)上圖書關注度研究中,本文利用時間序列模型中的ARIMA模型對各類別圖書在暢銷榜前500名的占有量進行了短期預測,研究結(jié)果表明短期關注度變化是可預測的。此外,各類圖書搜索量和書本數(shù)目比例基本對應,但排行榜上的搜索量并不是簡單的線性遞減關系。長期關注度變化研究表明,小說、少兒、生活、人文社科類圖書為網(wǎng)上圖書銷售的主體,其中生活類一直是關注的熱點,關注度呈繼續(xù)升高趨勢。通過榜單的變化可以研究人們對于各類圖書的需求變化,反映文化消費趨勢。 論文的最后結(jié)合研究成果,針對網(wǎng)上書店營銷策略提出了一些建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of WEB technology and the rapid development of e-commerce websites, online bookstores emerge as the times require, and impact on the traditional book distribution industry with a series of advantages such as convenience and quickness. The most popular online product for domestic Internet shoppers is books, and many shoppers have chosen to buy books online. Online bookstores not only have a wealth of book products, but also contain a large number of valuable online word-of-mouth data, such as customer reviews, various sales lists, etc. The important value of network word-of-mouth has been paid more and more attention by consumers and enterprises. Therefore, it is of practical significance to make full use of the abundant network word-of-mouth resources of online bookstores to study online bookshop sales from the perspective of online word-of-mouth, which can also be used as a reference for the study of marketing strategies of online bookstores. The data collected in this paper all come from Dangdang. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of sales volume prediction by using online book review, obtains the key factors that affect sales volume, and constructs a sales forecasting model accordingly. The experimental results show that customer reviews have a very important impact on online book sales. Books with more reviews are more likely to be concerned by customers. The volume of a book can be predicted by the increase in the number of reviews. There is obvious positive correlation among them. For different book categories, there are differences in the impact of customer reviews on sales forecast growth. With the same number of customer reviews, the larger the reading range of a book is, the larger the sales volume is. In the study of online book attention, this paper uses the ARIMA model in the time series model to predict the possession of all kinds of books in the top 500 best-selling list in the short term. The results show that the change of short-term attention is predictable. In addition, the number of books searched corresponds to the number of books, but the search volume on the list is not a simple linear decline. The study on the change of long-term attention shows that the books of novel, children, life, humanities and social sciences are the main body of online book sales, among which the life category is always the focus of attention, and the attention degree continues to increase. Through the change of list, we can study the change of people's demand for all kinds of books and reflect the trend of cultural consumption. Finally, combined with the research results, the paper puts forward some suggestions for online bookshop marketing strategy.
【學位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F274;F724.6;G239.23-F;F224

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本文編號：1969051