本文選題：圖書市場(chǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：發(fā)展階段　出處：《出版廣角》2017年22期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章匯總了1978年至2016年我國(guó)各年度宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)與圖書出版業(yè)主要數(shù)據(jù),發(fā)現(xiàn)自改革開放以來(lái),無(wú)論是依據(jù)內(nèi)部指標(biāo),還是外部指標(biāo),中國(guó)圖書市場(chǎng)都存在四個(gè)特征明顯各異的階段。然后基于分期數(shù)據(jù),文章通過(guò)因子分析和多元線性回歸數(shù)學(xué)建模,建立了中國(guó)圖書市場(chǎng)規(guī)模宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。模型提示,自1999年以來(lái),中國(guó)圖書市場(chǎng)規(guī)模主要與社會(huì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)相關(guān),而與圖書行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出關(guān)系較小,且其發(fā)展過(guò)程中,城鎮(zhèn)的推動(dòng)作用遠(yuǎn)大于農(nóng)村。最后,文章依據(jù)模型與"十三五"規(guī)劃控制指標(biāo),預(yù)測(cè)了2020年中國(guó)圖書市場(chǎng)規(guī)模,討論了中國(guó)圖書市場(chǎng)面臨的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)。
[Abstract]:This paper summarizes the macroeconomic indicators and the main data of the book publishing industry in China from 1978 to 2016. It is found that since the reform and opening up, both internal and external indicators have been used. There are four distinct stages in Chinese book market. Then, based on the stage data, this paper establishes the macroeconomic model of the scale of Chinese book market by factor analysis and multiple linear regression mathematical model. Since 1999, the scale of the book market in China has been mainly related to the social and macroeconomic indicators, but not to the output of the book industry. In the process of its development, the role of the cities and towns has been far greater than that of the rural areas. Based on the model and the control index of the 13th Five-Year Plan, this paper predicts the scale of China's book market in 2020, and discusses the opportunities and challenges that the Chinese book market is facing.
【作者單位】： 海峽書局出版社;
【分類號(hào)】：G239.2-F

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