基于多干旱指數(shù)與多水文模型的區(qū)域水文及干旱特征研究
發(fā)布時間：2021-04-13 12:37
在中國黑龍江的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中,松花江因其獨(dú)特的資源和自然條件而發(fā)揮著重要作用。松花江流域位于中國東北地區(qū),是中國主要的商品糧基地之一。近幾十年來松花江流量大幅度下降,對全球變暖背景下的可持續(xù)發(fā)展和水資源管理構(gòu)成嚴(yán)重威脅。因此,極端降水的可靠性對于評估自然災(zāi)害（即洪水和干旱）非常重要。干旱會對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生長期影響,從而產(chǎn)生自然系統(tǒng)的壓力、經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和人道主義災(zāi)難。因此,通過研究歷史和未來水文氣象行為的變化,來制定流域水資源綜合規(guī)劃是必要的。本研究利用多點(diǎn)水文模型進(jìn)行,這些模型是通過點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)和一般循環(huán)模型（GCMs）集合的偏差來校正降水,從而評估SRB的水文和氣象行為。此外,還利用多個干旱指數(shù)來分析SRB的歷史和未來干旱行為。本研究采用的數(shù)據(jù)有積雪覆蓋數(shù)據(jù)、徑流量和氣象資料（降水量和地表溫度）,其中積雪覆蓋數(shù)據(jù)來自于中分辨率成像光譜儀。此外,利用包含不同總循環(huán)模式的耦合模式比較計(jì)劃5評價了松花江流域1961-2005年間的徑流和氣候變化趨勢;利用包含3個RCP（8.5,4.5 and 2.6）的耦合模式比較計(jì)劃5評價了兩種情境（A2,A1B）下,2006-2099年間松花江流域的徑流和氣候變化趨勢...
【文章來源】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)黑龍江省 211工程院校
【文章頁數(shù)】：157 頁
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【文章目錄】：
Abstract in Chinese
Abstract in English
1 Introduction
1.1 Basis for setting subject
1.2 Purpose and significance of research
1.3 Summary of local and international research
1.3.1 Study on climatic variables and hydrological characteristics
1.3.2 Study on projection of climate variables
1.3.3 Study on application and reliability of general circulation models
1.3.4 Study on drought behavior
1.3.5 Study on application of drought indexes for projection of dry periods
1.4 The main study content and technology route
1.4.1 The main study content
1.4.2 The technology route
2 Assessment the impact of snow cover and climatic variables on river stream flow in theSonghua River Basin
2.1 Research area and data sets
2.1.1 Research area
2.1.2 Data sets
2.2 Methods
2.2.1 Mann-Kendall' s trend test
2.2.2 Sen's Slope estimator
2.3 Results and discussion
2.3.1 Snow cover trend in the Songhua River Basin
2.3.2 Stream flow trend analysis
2.3.3 Correlation between climate variables, stream flow and snow cover
2.4 Brief summary of this chapter
3 Trends assessemnt of climate variables for the 21st century over the Songhua RiverBasin
3.1 Data sets
3.2 Methods
3.2.1 Downscaling techniques
3.2.2 Statistical indicators
3.3 Results and analysis
3.3.1 Comparison of simulated model values with observed data
3.3.2 Projection of precipitation and surface area temperature
3.4 Discussion
3.5 Brief summary of this chapter
4 Assesment of stream flow variations and drought in the Songhua River Basin
4.1 Data sets
4.2 Methods
4.2.1 Water Evaluation and Planning （WEAP） Tool
4.2.2 Statistical analysis
4.2.3 Climate change scenarios
4.2.4 Drought indexes
4.2.5 Theory of Run
4.3 Results and discussion
4.3.1 Evaluation of SRES-A1B and SRES-A2
4.3.2 WEAP performance evaluation based on APHRODITE and observed precipitationdata
4.3.3 Historical trend and impact of climate change on stream flow
4.3.4 Historical drought behavior of stream flow
4.3.5 Stream flow drought conditions in 21st century
4.3.6 Risk assessment of drought events
4.4 Brief summary for this chapter
5 Evaluation of hydrological models using ensembles of GCMs in the Songhua RiverBasin
5.1 Data sets
5.2 Methods
5.2.1 Linear scaling method
5.2.2 Hydrological models
5.3 Results and discussions
5.3.1 Performance evaluation of raw general circulation models （GCMs）
5.3.2 Performance evaluation of GCMs by reformulated linear scaling method
5.3.3 Calibration and validation of hydrological models using observational data
5.3.4 Comparison between hydrological models （GR4J, WEAP, and NAM）
5.4 Brief summary of this chapter
6 Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring using GCMs and pan evaporation-based drought indexes in the Songhua River Basin
6.1 Methods
6.1.1 Selection of indexes
6.1.2 Downscaling method
6.2 Results and analysis
6.2.1 Performance evaluation of GCM-based regional calculated precipitation indexesand average trends analysis on annual scales
6.2.2 Station based trends analysis in extreme precipitation indexes on annual scales
6.2.3 Comparison among drought Indexes
6.3 Discussion
6.4 Brief summary of this chapter
7 Drought characteristics analysis using multi-indexes and ensembles of GeneralCirculation Models in the Songhua River Basin
7.1 Methods
7.1.1 Statistical downscaling by Generator for Point Climate Change （GPCC）
7.1.2 Drought indexes
7.1.3 Reference evapotranspiration （ET0）
7.1.4 Drought determining criterion
7.1.5 Potential contributors
7.2 Results and discussions
7.2.1 Historical drought behaviour analysis
7.2.2 Evaluation of general circulation models （GCMs）
7.2.3 Future drought episodes identification under Representative ConcentrationPathways （RCPs） scenario
7.2.4 Duration identification of future drought episodes under RepresentativeConcentration Pathways （RCPs） scenario
7.2.5 Impact assessment of of potential contributor on drought behaviour
7.2.6 Multi-indexes performance assessment
7.3 Brief summary of this chapter
8 Performance evaluation of gridded precipitation data products over Heilongjiang Province in China
8.1 Research area and data sets
8.1.1 Research area
8.1.2 Data sets
8.2 Methods
8.2.1 Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI）
8.2.2 Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI）
8.3 Results and discussions
8.3.1 Comparison of gridded data products with observed data
8.3.2 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on precipitationconcentration index analysis
8.3.3 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on drought frequencyanalysis
8.4 Brief summary for this chapter
9 Conclusions and prospects
9.1 Conclusions
9.2 Novelty points
9.3 Prospects
Acknowledgement
References
Papers published in the periods of Ph D education
【參考文獻(xiàn)】：
期刊論文
[1]Using Quantile Regression to Detect Relationships between Large-scale Predictors and Local Precipitation over Northern China[J]. FAN Lijun,XIONG Zhe. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2015(04)
[2]400多年來中國東部旱澇型變化與太平洋年代際振蕩關(guān)系[J]. 裴琳,嚴(yán)中偉,楊輝. 科學(xué)通報. 2015(01)
[3]East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models[J]. JIANG DaBang,TIAN ZhiPing. Chinese Science Bulletin. 2013(12)
[4]Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model[J]. 馮蕾,周天軍,吳波,Tim LI. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2011(02)
[5]Multi-model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part I: Precipitation[J]. 李紅梅,馮蕾,周天軍. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2011(02)
[6]Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960-2009[J]. 錢維宏,單曉龍,朱亞芬. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2011(02)
[7]近50年遼寧省干旱綜合指數(shù)的動態(tài)變化[J]. 劉曉梅,李晶,呂志紅,劉明,邢婉茹. 生態(tài)學(xué)雜志. 2009(05)
[8]近半個世紀(jì)我國干旱變化的初步研究[J]. 鄒旭愷,張強(qiáng). 應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)報. 2008(06)
[9]中國年極端降水事件的時空分布特征[J]. 楊金虎,江志紅,王鵬祥,陳彥山. 氣候與環(huán)境研究. 2008(01)
[10]Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China[J]. CHEN Ya-ning, LI Wei-hong, XU Chang-chun, HAO Xin-ming Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.. Journal of Environmental Sciences. 2007(04)
本文編號：3135311
【文章來源】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)黑龍江省 211工程院校
【文章頁數(shù)】：157 頁
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【文章目錄】：
Abstract in Chinese
Abstract in English
1 Introduction
1.1 Basis for setting subject
1.2 Purpose and significance of research
1.3 Summary of local and international research
1.3.1 Study on climatic variables and hydrological characteristics
1.3.2 Study on projection of climate variables
1.3.3 Study on application and reliability of general circulation models
1.3.4 Study on drought behavior
1.3.5 Study on application of drought indexes for projection of dry periods
1.4 The main study content and technology route
1.4.1 The main study content
1.4.2 The technology route
2 Assessment the impact of snow cover and climatic variables on river stream flow in theSonghua River Basin
2.1 Research area and data sets
2.1.1 Research area
2.1.2 Data sets
2.2 Methods
2.2.1 Mann-Kendall' s trend test
2.2.2 Sen's Slope estimator
2.3 Results and discussion
2.3.1 Snow cover trend in the Songhua River Basin
2.3.2 Stream flow trend analysis
2.3.3 Correlation between climate variables, stream flow and snow cover
2.4 Brief summary of this chapter
3 Trends assessemnt of climate variables for the 21st century over the Songhua RiverBasin
3.1 Data sets
3.2 Methods
3.2.1 Downscaling techniques
3.2.2 Statistical indicators
3.3 Results and analysis
3.3.1 Comparison of simulated model values with observed data
3.3.2 Projection of precipitation and surface area temperature
3.4 Discussion
3.5 Brief summary of this chapter
4 Assesment of stream flow variations and drought in the Songhua River Basin
4.1 Data sets
4.2 Methods
4.2.1 Water Evaluation and Planning （WEAP） Tool
4.2.2 Statistical analysis
4.2.3 Climate change scenarios
4.2.4 Drought indexes
4.2.5 Theory of Run
4.3 Results and discussion
4.3.1 Evaluation of SRES-A1B and SRES-A2
4.3.2 WEAP performance evaluation based on APHRODITE and observed precipitationdata
4.3.3 Historical trend and impact of climate change on stream flow
4.3.4 Historical drought behavior of stream flow
4.3.5 Stream flow drought conditions in 21st century
4.3.6 Risk assessment of drought events
4.4 Brief summary for this chapter
5 Evaluation of hydrological models using ensembles of GCMs in the Songhua RiverBasin
5.1 Data sets
5.2 Methods
5.2.1 Linear scaling method
5.2.2 Hydrological models
5.3 Results and discussions
5.3.1 Performance evaluation of raw general circulation models （GCMs）
5.3.2 Performance evaluation of GCMs by reformulated linear scaling method
5.3.3 Calibration and validation of hydrological models using observational data
5.3.4 Comparison between hydrological models （GR4J, WEAP, and NAM）
5.4 Brief summary of this chapter
6 Extreme precipitation and drought monitoring using GCMs and pan evaporation-based drought indexes in the Songhua River Basin
6.1 Methods
6.1.1 Selection of indexes
6.1.2 Downscaling method
6.2 Results and analysis
6.2.1 Performance evaluation of GCM-based regional calculated precipitation indexesand average trends analysis on annual scales
6.2.2 Station based trends analysis in extreme precipitation indexes on annual scales
6.2.3 Comparison among drought Indexes
6.3 Discussion
6.4 Brief summary of this chapter
7 Drought characteristics analysis using multi-indexes and ensembles of GeneralCirculation Models in the Songhua River Basin
7.1 Methods
7.1.1 Statistical downscaling by Generator for Point Climate Change （GPCC）
7.1.2 Drought indexes
7.1.3 Reference evapotranspiration （ET0）
7.1.4 Drought determining criterion
7.1.5 Potential contributors
7.2 Results and discussions
7.2.1 Historical drought behaviour analysis
7.2.2 Evaluation of general circulation models （GCMs）
7.2.3 Future drought episodes identification under Representative ConcentrationPathways （RCPs） scenario
7.2.4 Duration identification of future drought episodes under RepresentativeConcentration Pathways （RCPs） scenario
7.2.5 Impact assessment of of potential contributor on drought behaviour
7.2.6 Multi-indexes performance assessment
7.3 Brief summary of this chapter
8 Performance evaluation of gridded precipitation data products over Heilongjiang Province in China
8.1 Research area and data sets
8.1.1 Research area
8.1.2 Data sets
8.2 Methods
8.2.1 Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI）
8.2.2 Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI）
8.3 Results and discussions
8.3.1 Comparison of gridded data products with observed data
8.3.2 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on precipitationconcentration index analysis
8.3.3 Performance evaluation of precipitation data products based on drought frequencyanalysis
8.4 Brief summary for this chapter
9 Conclusions and prospects
9.1 Conclusions
9.2 Novelty points
9.3 Prospects
Acknowledgement
References
Papers published in the periods of Ph D education
【參考文獻(xiàn)】：
期刊論文
[1]Using Quantile Regression to Detect Relationships between Large-scale Predictors and Local Precipitation over Northern China[J]. FAN Lijun,XIONG Zhe. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2015(04)
[2]400多年來中國東部旱澇型變化與太平洋年代際振蕩關(guān)系[J]. 裴琳,嚴(yán)中偉,楊輝. 科學(xué)通報. 2015(01)
[3]East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models[J]. JIANG DaBang,TIAN ZhiPing. Chinese Science Bulletin. 2013(12)
[4]Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model[J]. 馮蕾,周天軍,吳波,Tim LI. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2011(02)
[5]Multi-model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part I: Precipitation[J]. 李紅梅,馮蕾,周天軍. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2011(02)
[6]Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960-2009[J]. 錢維宏,單曉龍,朱亞芬. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2011(02)
[7]近50年遼寧省干旱綜合指數(shù)的動態(tài)變化[J]. 劉曉梅,李晶,呂志紅,劉明,邢婉茹. 生態(tài)學(xué)雜志. 2009(05)
[8]近半個世紀(jì)我國干旱變化的初步研究[J]. 鄒旭愷,張強(qiáng). 應(yīng)用氣象學(xué)報. 2008(06)
[9]中國年極端降水事件的時空分布特征[J]. 楊金虎,江志紅,王鵬祥,陳彥山. 氣候與環(huán)境研究. 2008(01)
[10]Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China[J]. CHEN Ya-ning, LI Wei-hong, XU Chang-chun, HAO Xin-ming Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China.. Journal of Environmental Sciences. 2007(04)
本文編號：3135311
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