【摘要】：研究水資源系統(tǒng)脆弱性有助于水資源可持續(xù)利用的實(shí)現(xiàn),結(jié)合驅(qū)動力—壓力—狀態(tài)—影響—響應(yīng)(DPSIR)框架構(gòu)建了水資源系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價指標(biāo)體系,利用混合蛙跳算法和投影尋蹤方法建立了基于混合蛙跳和投影尋蹤的水資源系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價模型,以山東省滕州市為研究區(qū),分別從驅(qū)動力—壓力—狀態(tài)—影響—響應(yīng)5個方面及系統(tǒng)整體進(jìn)行了水資源系統(tǒng)脆弱性評價,并以模型計(jì)算的投影值作為衡量系統(tǒng)脆弱程度的依據(jù)。結(jié)果表明,該區(qū)2008年水資源系統(tǒng)指標(biāo)體系各方面與整體均處于脆弱性中等范圍,其中水資源供需矛盾不斷加劇及水資源開發(fā)利用條件薄弱導(dǎo)致影響、狀態(tài)兩方面脆弱性程度較高,依靠科技進(jìn)步措施使得響應(yīng)類指標(biāo)對脆弱性影響程度較低,與實(shí)際情況相符,可見該模型評價結(jié)果可行、有效。
[Abstract]:The study of vulnerability of water resources system is helpful to the realization of sustainable utilization of water resources. Combined with the framework of driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR), the vulnerability evaluation index system of water resources system is constructed, and the vulnerability assessment model of water resources system based on mixed frog jump and projection pursuit is established by using mixed frog jump algorithm and projection pursuit method. Tengzhou City, Shandong Province, is taken as the study area. The vulnerability of water resources system is evaluated from five aspects of driving force, pressure, state, influence and response, and the projection value calculated by the model is used as the basis to measure the vulnerability of the system. The results show that the index system of water resources system in 2008 is in the middle range of vulnerability, in which the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the weak conditions of water resources development and utilization lead to the influence, and the vulnerability of the two aspects is higher. Relying on the measures of scientific and technological progress, the impact of response indicators on vulnerability is low, which is consistent with the actual situation. It can be seen that the evaluation results of the model are feasible and effective.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)水文水資源學(xué)院;
【分類號】：TV213.4

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本文編號：2501891