復雜性視角下的紅興隆管理局農業(yè)水資源優(yōu)化配置研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-18 08:08
【摘要】：紅興隆管理局位于三江平原腹地,是黑龍江省占土地面積較大的墾區(qū)之一。近年來,隨著經濟、人口的不斷增加,工業(yè)、城市化的加快以及不合理的開采和利用水資源,致使水文系統(tǒng)的干擾日益增強,農業(yè)水文要素的復雜性越來越突出,這些因素都成為制約著農業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關鍵。農業(yè)水資源的持續(xù)利用,制約著水資源的持續(xù)利用,從而使整個社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展受到影響,只有采取科學合理的措施和方法,才能使區(qū)域農業(yè)經濟朝著好的方向發(fā)展。從保障農業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的角度出發(fā),運用排列熵對紅興隆管理局水資源復雜性進行測度分析,確定綜合復雜性空間分布,并在此基礎上實現(xiàn)水資源與農水資源優(yōu)化配置,最后進行效果評價,對于指導合理利用農業(yè)水資源,協(xié)調社會、經濟、環(huán)境的發(fā)展提供了有力的參考依據(jù)。 (1)根據(jù)黑龍江省紅興隆管理局水務局提供的紅興隆管理局各農場地下水埋深資料和歷年降水資料,采用替代數(shù)據(jù)法對數(shù)據(jù)進行非線性檢驗,確定數(shù)據(jù)序列的非線性特征。結果表明：紅興隆管理局各農場的時序數(shù)據(jù)的顯著性指標均大于1.96,說明該零假設在95%的置信水平內被拒絕,地下水埋深時序數(shù)據(jù)和降水時序數(shù)據(jù)中都存在著非線性成分。 (2)運用排列熵方法對研究區(qū)逐月地下水埋深序列、降水序列進行了測度分析,并運用粒子群優(yōu)化相空間重構參數(shù)m和τ,根據(jù)優(yōu)化后的重構參數(shù),確定地下水埋深序列、降水序列的復雜性測度值,并采用GIS技術繪制了紅興隆管理局各分區(qū)水埋深序列和降水序列復雜性空間分布圖。結果顯示：降水序列中,中部平均復雜度最大；北部地區(qū)居中；南部地區(qū)復雜性最弱,這與地下水埋深復雜性相呼應。 (3)采用熵值法度量了水資源系統(tǒng)綜合復雜度,利用GIS的可視化功能,繪制了紅興隆管理局各分區(qū)水資源系統(tǒng)綜合復雜性空間分布圖。結果表明：紅興隆管理局中區(qū)水資源系統(tǒng)最為復雜,開發(fā)程度最高；北區(qū)復雜性最弱,是因為北區(qū)靠近兩大河流,在一定程度上可以彌補水資源的開發(fā)利用；南區(qū)水資源系統(tǒng)復雜性適中,說明該區(qū)域已經受到各種不確定因子的影響,應對各種人為驅動因子加強遏制,使其朝著好的方向發(fā)展。 (4)以紅興隆管理局各分區(qū)復雜性特征研究成果、逐月地下水和降水為資料依據(jù),實現(xiàn)經濟效益、社會效益和生態(tài)環(huán)境效益的協(xié)調統(tǒng)一,可持續(xù)發(fā)展為最終目標,建立紅興隆管理局2015年及2020年水資源優(yōu)化配置模型,利用混合遺傳算法對模型進行求解。結果顯示：紅興隆管理局水資源有限,并沒有完全滿足農業(yè)用水,缺水量較大,供需矛盾突出；此外,紅興隆管理局規(guī)劃水平年缺水狀況得到改善,地下水資源得到了有效的保護,由此確定混合遺傳算法是解決紅興隆管理局水資源優(yōu)化配置的有效途徑。并用粒子群算法和混合遺傳算法相比較,在此基礎上對紅興隆管理局農業(yè)水資源進行優(yōu)化配置。結果表明：2015年和2020年在保障充分利用過境水的同時,對地下水、地表水的開采利用有了大幅下降,保障了地下水、地表水的水資源量。最后基于水資源優(yōu)化配置結果,提出水資源保護規(guī)劃。 (5)以2015年水資源優(yōu)化配置后的數(shù)據(jù)資料,下屬12個農場為評價單元,運用模糊綜合評價的方法,得出紅興隆農業(yè)水資源可持續(xù)利用指標值。結果表明：紅興隆管理局12個農場總體上對水資源的可持續(xù)利用水平較低,今后在農業(yè)水資源方面使用很有前景,未來應加大農業(yè)水資源的投入,增強人們的節(jié)水意識,提高農業(yè)水資源利用率,改善生態(tài)環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:The Hong Xinglong Bureau is located in the hinterland of the Sanjiang Plain, and is one of the land reclamation areas of Heilongjiang Province. In recent years, with the increasing of economy and population, the acceleration of industry and urbanization and the unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources, the disturbance of the hydrological system is increasing, and the complexity of the agricultural hydrological elements is becoming more and more prominent. These factors are the key to the sustainable development of agriculture. The sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources is restricted by the sustainable utilization of water resources, so that the sustainable development of the whole society is affected. Only by adopting scientific and reasonable measures and methods can the regional agricultural economy be developed in a good direction. From the viewpoint of ensuring the sustainable development of agriculture, the paper analyzes the complexity of the water resources of the Hong Xinglong Bureau by means of the arrangement entropy, determines the spatial distribution of the comprehensive complexity, and realizes the optimal configuration of the water resources and the non-agricultural water resources on the basis of the measures, and finally carries out the effect evaluation. It provides a powerful reference for guiding the rational utilization of agricultural water resources, coordinating the social, economic and environmental development. (1) The data shall be non-linear tested by the alternative data method to determine the non-linearity of the data sequence according to the groundwater depth data and the precipitation data of each farm of the Hong Xinglong Bureau, which is provided by the Water Bureau of the Hong Xinglong Bureau of Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the significance index of the time sequence data for each farm of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is more than 1.96, which indicates that the zero hypothesis is rejected in the 95% confidence level, and the groundwater depth timing data and the precipitation time sequence data are non-linear. (2) Using the arrangement entropy method, the groundwater depth sequence and the precipitation sequence of the study area are measured and analyzed on a monthly basis, and the particle swarm optimization phase space reconstruction parameters m and m are used to determine the buried depth sequence of the groundwater and the complexity of the precipitation sequence according to the optimized reconstruction parameters. Measure the value, and use the GIS technology to draw the water depth sequence and the complexity space of the precipitation sequence of each section of the Hong Xinglong Bureau. The results show that the average complexity of the central region is the largest in the precipitation sequence, the middle of the northern region is the middle, the complexity of the southern region is the weakest, which is related to the complexity of the buried depth of the groundwater (3) The comprehensive complexity of the water resources system is measured by the entropy method, and the comprehensive complexity of the water resources system of each section of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is drawn by using the visualization function of GIS. The results show that the water resources system in the Central District of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is the most complicated and the highest development degree, and the lower complexity of the North District is because the North District is close to the two rivers and can make up for the development and utilization of the water resources to a certain extent, and the water resources system in the south area The complexity is moderate, indicating that the region has been affected by a variety of uncertain factors, which should be reinforced by a variety of artificial drivers to make it move towards good (4) According to the research results of the regional complexity of the Hong Xinglong Bureau, the data on the basis of the monthly ground water and the precipitation are the data bases, and the coordination and unification of the economic benefit, the social benefit and the ecological environment benefit can be realized, and the sustainable development is sustainable. The objective of development is to set up the water resource optimization configuration model of the Hong Xinglong Bureau in 2015 and 2020, and use the hybrid genetic algorithm The results show that the water resource of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is limited, and it does not completely meet the agricultural water, the water shortage is large, the supply and demand contradiction is outstanding; in addition, the water shortage condition in the planning level of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is improved, and the groundwater resources are Based on the effective protection, it is determined that the hybrid genetic algorithm is the solution to the water resource optimization of the Hong Xinglong Bureau. Based on the comparison of the particle swarm optimization and the hybrid genetic algorithm, the agricultural water resources of the Hong Xinglong Administration The results show that the exploitation and utilization of ground water and surface water are greatly reduced by 2015 and 2020, and the ground water and ground water are guaranteed. The water resources of the water resources. At last, based on the results of the optimization of water resources, the paper puts forward Water resource protection planning. (5) Based on the data of the water resource optimization configuration in 2015, the 12 farms under the subordinate are the evaluation unit, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to obtain the water resources of the Hong Xinglong agriculture. The results show that the sustainable utilization of water resources in the 12 farms of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is relatively low, and it is very promising to use the water resources in the future. The future should increase the investment of the agricultural water resources and enhance the water-saving awareness of the people. high agricultural water resource
【學位授予單位】：東北農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F323.213
本文編號：2501299
[Abstract]:The Hong Xinglong Bureau is located in the hinterland of the Sanjiang Plain, and is one of the land reclamation areas of Heilongjiang Province. In recent years, with the increasing of economy and population, the acceleration of industry and urbanization and the unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources, the disturbance of the hydrological system is increasing, and the complexity of the agricultural hydrological elements is becoming more and more prominent. These factors are the key to the sustainable development of agriculture. The sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources is restricted by the sustainable utilization of water resources, so that the sustainable development of the whole society is affected. Only by adopting scientific and reasonable measures and methods can the regional agricultural economy be developed in a good direction. From the viewpoint of ensuring the sustainable development of agriculture, the paper analyzes the complexity of the water resources of the Hong Xinglong Bureau by means of the arrangement entropy, determines the spatial distribution of the comprehensive complexity, and realizes the optimal configuration of the water resources and the non-agricultural water resources on the basis of the measures, and finally carries out the effect evaluation. It provides a powerful reference for guiding the rational utilization of agricultural water resources, coordinating the social, economic and environmental development. (1) The data shall be non-linear tested by the alternative data method to determine the non-linearity of the data sequence according to the groundwater depth data and the precipitation data of each farm of the Hong Xinglong Bureau, which is provided by the Water Bureau of the Hong Xinglong Bureau of Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the significance index of the time sequence data for each farm of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is more than 1.96, which indicates that the zero hypothesis is rejected in the 95% confidence level, and the groundwater depth timing data and the precipitation time sequence data are non-linear. (2) Using the arrangement entropy method, the groundwater depth sequence and the precipitation sequence of the study area are measured and analyzed on a monthly basis, and the particle swarm optimization phase space reconstruction parameters m and m are used to determine the buried depth sequence of the groundwater and the complexity of the precipitation sequence according to the optimized reconstruction parameters. Measure the value, and use the GIS technology to draw the water depth sequence and the complexity space of the precipitation sequence of each section of the Hong Xinglong Bureau. The results show that the average complexity of the central region is the largest in the precipitation sequence, the middle of the northern region is the middle, the complexity of the southern region is the weakest, which is related to the complexity of the buried depth of the groundwater (3) The comprehensive complexity of the water resources system is measured by the entropy method, and the comprehensive complexity of the water resources system of each section of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is drawn by using the visualization function of GIS. The results show that the water resources system in the Central District of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is the most complicated and the highest development degree, and the lower complexity of the North District is because the North District is close to the two rivers and can make up for the development and utilization of the water resources to a certain extent, and the water resources system in the south area The complexity is moderate, indicating that the region has been affected by a variety of uncertain factors, which should be reinforced by a variety of artificial drivers to make it move towards good (4) According to the research results of the regional complexity of the Hong Xinglong Bureau, the data on the basis of the monthly ground water and the precipitation are the data bases, and the coordination and unification of the economic benefit, the social benefit and the ecological environment benefit can be realized, and the sustainable development is sustainable. The objective of development is to set up the water resource optimization configuration model of the Hong Xinglong Bureau in 2015 and 2020, and use the hybrid genetic algorithm The results show that the water resource of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is limited, and it does not completely meet the agricultural water, the water shortage is large, the supply and demand contradiction is outstanding; in addition, the water shortage condition in the planning level of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is improved, and the groundwater resources are Based on the effective protection, it is determined that the hybrid genetic algorithm is the solution to the water resource optimization of the Hong Xinglong Bureau. Based on the comparison of the particle swarm optimization and the hybrid genetic algorithm, the agricultural water resources of the Hong Xinglong Administration The results show that the exploitation and utilization of ground water and surface water are greatly reduced by 2015 and 2020, and the ground water and ground water are guaranteed. The water resources of the water resources. At last, based on the results of the optimization of water resources, the paper puts forward Water resource protection planning. (5) Based on the data of the water resource optimization configuration in 2015, the 12 farms under the subordinate are the evaluation unit, and the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to obtain the water resources of the Hong Xinglong agriculture. The results show that the sustainable utilization of water resources in the 12 farms of the Hong Xinglong Bureau is relatively low, and it is very promising to use the water resources in the future. The future should increase the investment of the agricultural water resources and enhance the water-saving awareness of the people. high agricultural water resource
【學位授予單位】：東北農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F323.213
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