【摘要】：針對(duì)水資源消耗強(qiáng)度問(wèn)題,本文基于改進(jìn)的LMDI方法研究1997-2011年我國(guó)水資源消耗強(qiáng)度變化的影響因素。我們發(fā)現(xiàn),總效應(yīng)與強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)具有相似的變化趨勢(shì),強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)下降及反轉(zhuǎn)是總效應(yīng)下降及反轉(zhuǎn)的主要原因,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)未促進(jìn)用水強(qiáng)度下降;利用完全模型得到,各省份用水效率普遍提高,主要由于技術(shù)進(jìn)步,東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)是用水強(qiáng)度下降的主要推動(dòng)因素,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)并未推動(dòng)總效應(yīng)下降,區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)對(duì)總效應(yīng)的影響較弱;利用簡(jiǎn)化模型得到,總效應(yīng)下降幅度較大的省份集中于西部地區(qū),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)與強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)對(duì)總效應(yīng)的影響與完全模型一致,東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)促進(jìn)總效應(yīng)下降的效果好于中西部地區(qū);改進(jìn)的LMDI方法符合殘差檢驗(yàn)和時(shí)間反演檢驗(yàn)。因此,各省份發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí),需要關(guān)注技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,尤其中西部地區(qū);加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,也是提高用水效率的重要途徑;加強(qiáng)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)對(duì)欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的支持,縮小區(qū)域社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)差距。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem of water resource consumption intensity, this paper studies the influencing factors of water resource consumption intensity change in China from 1997 to 2011 based on the improved LMDI method. We found that the total effect and the intensity effect have the similar change trend, the intensity effect decline and the reversal is the main reason of the total effect decline and reversal, the industrial structure effect does not promote the water use intensity to decline; By using the complete model, the efficiency of water use in each province is generally improved, mainly due to the technological progress, the eastern developed region is the main driving factor for the decrease of water use intensity, and the industrial structure effect does not promote the total effect to decline. The effect of regional structure on the total effect is weak; By using the simplified model, the provinces with a large decrease in total effect are concentrated in the western region, and the effects of industrial structure effect and intensity effect on the total effect are consistent with the complete model. The effect of industrial structure effect in eastern region is better than that in central and western region. The improved LMDI method accords with residual error test and time inversion test. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to technological innovation, especially in the central and western regions, and accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, which is also an important way to improve the efficiency of water use. We will strengthen the support of the developed regions to the less developed areas and narrow the regional social and economic disparities.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：水利部中央分成水資源費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):1261320212020)
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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