【摘要】：采用2005~2014年的吉林省水資源相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法,選出水資源短缺的主要相關(guān)風(fēng)險因子,對水資源系列進(jìn)行模糊聚類,并采用灰色系統(tǒng)法對2015~2020年的水資源短缺風(fēng)險進(jìn)行預(yù)測。結(jié)果表明,水資源總量、三大產(chǎn)業(yè)用水量、其他生活用水及常住人口等指標(biāo)與吉林省水資源短缺的關(guān)聯(lián)度較大。在2008年以前,吉林省主要處于中等缺水等級,而在2008年以后,吉林省的缺水等級波動較大,主要是受到了當(dāng)?shù)貧夂蚣安扇〉乃胧┑挠绊�。如果按照現(xiàn)階段吉林省水利發(fā)展情況,在非極端枯水年的情況下,直到2018年,吉林省都不會面臨缺水的風(fēng)險;如果有效調(diào)整吉林省的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),控制常住人口數(shù)量,采用更有效的管理措施,則會有效地緩解2018年以后吉林省的水資源短缺狀況。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of water resources in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014, the main risk factors related to water resources shortage are selected by using grey relational analysis, and the series of water resources are clustered by fuzzy clustering. The grey system method is used to forecast the risk of water shortage from 2015 to 2020. The results show that the indexes of total water resources, water consumption of three major industries, other domestic water use and resident population are closely related to water resources shortage in Jilin Province. Before 2008, Jilin Province was mainly in the middle water shortage grade, but after 2008, the water shortage grade of Jilin Province fluctuated greatly, which was mainly affected by the local climate and the water conservancy measures taken. If, according to the current situation of water conservancy development in Jilin Province, in the case of non-extreme dry years, Jilin Province will not face the risk of water shortage until 2018; if the industrial production structure of Jilin Province is effectively adjusted to control the number of permanent residents, More effective management measures will effectively alleviate the water shortage in Jilin Province after 2018.
【作者單位】： 吉林省水利水電勘測設(shè)計研究院;
【基金】：水利部公益行業(yè)科研專項項目“松花江流域糧食生態(tài)安全水供求若干關(guān)鍵技術(shù)”(201501013)
【分類號】：TV213.4

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