本文選題：水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非” + 要素替代　； 參考：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”實際上是水資源從農(nóng)業(yè)部門向非農(nóng)業(yè)部門的有償水權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)讓，這種轉(zhuǎn)變在追求提高水資源利用效率的同時，還應(yīng)該保證不損害正常的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動，保證正常的農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉，堅持“只轉(zhuǎn)讓余水，不影響農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉”的原則。如若長期疏于管理，大量的水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”必將造成農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉用水的短缺，影響農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，威脅我國的糧食安全（美國早期的水資源農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非就曾出現(xiàn)過這種情況）。本研究正是從這一角度出發(fā)，選擇水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”的評價指標(biāo)，嚴格限定水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”的數(shù)量，堅決不能超過農(nóng)業(yè)“節(jié)余水量”，侵占農(nóng)田灌溉基本需要。只有確定了水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”的底線，才能既滿足工業(yè)用水的需求，又不對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成威脅，為保障糧食安全提供基礎(chǔ)條件。 論文的撰寫就是沿著“要素替代理論設(shè)想——評價指標(biāo)選擇——指標(biāo)的應(yīng)用（評價歷史進程）——歷史結(jié)果機理分析——提出對策建議”這一主線來寫的。主要研究結(jié)論有： （1）要素替代理論及評價監(jiān)管理論設(shè)想。水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”的過程實際上是一個要素替代過程——其他資源追加投入將水資源從農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中替代出來，應(yīng)該保證“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”之后的水量能夠滿足農(nóng)作物生長需要，正常的糧食生產(chǎn)過程不能受到水量限制的影響。本文提出對水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”進行監(jiān)控管理的一些設(shè)想：先有資源的追加后有水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”；替代效率邊際遞減，資源追加的投入增多；水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”的速度不能超過資源的追加速度；水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”有底線。 （2）水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”評價指標(biāo)的選擇。以C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)為模型，通過處理分析，加之一系列的模型統(tǒng)計檢驗、計量假設(shè)檢驗和經(jīng)濟意義檢驗，最終確定的替代資源組合為T7（噴灌節(jié)水面積）和T8（微灌節(jié)水面積），相應(yīng)的邊際技術(shù)替代系數(shù)為-0.94、-0.26，估算出以現(xiàn)實中的資源投入理論上能夠節(jié)約出多少水資源，把現(xiàn)實中的數(shù)據(jù)與理論測算的進行比較，核心指標(biāo)應(yīng)滿足Wn/Wt1。 （3）糧食安全視角下的水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”評價。通過測算，發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)水資源超額轉(zhuǎn)移了，大多數(shù)年份都是成倍的轉(zhuǎn)移，尤其是2008年竟然超額轉(zhuǎn)移20多倍，農(nóng)業(yè)用水情況堪憂。但是我們也應(yīng)該看到，每年水資源轉(zhuǎn)移的數(shù)量在經(jīng)過2003這個高峰期后，總體呈下降趨勢；而每年的節(jié)水量在曲折反復(fù)中也是上升態(tài)勢，二者之間的比值也經(jīng)歷了一番跌宕起伏，基本回落到初始水平，前景是比較樂觀。但是我們?nèi)匀恍枰度敫嗟奶娲Y源去增加節(jié)水量，從而保證水資源合理有序的向工業(yè)部門轉(zhuǎn)移，保證我國工農(nóng)的平穩(wěn)健康的發(fā)展。 （4）對以上歷史結(jié)果進行基本機理分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)原因有以下幾點：市場機制不健全，政府干預(yù)過多，出現(xiàn)“尋租”、行政“平調(diào)”等行為；存在轉(zhuǎn)移的程序不規(guī)范，轉(zhuǎn)移過程中歷史數(shù)據(jù)記載的缺失、監(jiān)督控制力度不夠，，過度轉(zhuǎn)移的處罰沒有明確的規(guī)定等監(jiān)控管理漏洞；農(nóng)業(yè)部門初始水權(quán)界定不清，其他部門擠占、挪用現(xiàn)象頻發(fā)；農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水投入不足，農(nóng)戶節(jié)水意識不高。 （5）糧食安全視角下的水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”監(jiān)管對策。開展水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”歷史監(jiān)測和未來預(yù)測研究，對我國水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”的歷史情況和發(fā)展趨勢有一個總體判斷；完善相關(guān)法律法規(guī)，明確初始水權(quán)，加強水權(quán)交易的法制建設(shè)；引入市場機制規(guī)范水權(quán)交易市場，完善水權(quán)交易市場的三個層次，減少政府干預(yù)；推廣農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水技術(shù)，增加農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水設(shè)施投入，激勵農(nóng)戶樹立節(jié)水觀念，采取節(jié)水措施；加強水資源“農(nóng)轉(zhuǎn)非”過程的管理，建立監(jiān)控管理信息平臺，嚴格控制轉(zhuǎn)移數(shù)量、規(guī)范轉(zhuǎn)移程序；建立水資源監(jiān)控預(yù)警機制，嚴防各種隱患的發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:Water resources " agriculture turning non " is actually the transfer of water resources from the agricultural sector to the non - agricultural sector .

The writing of the paper is written along the main line of the application ( evaluation history process ) _ historical results mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical result mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical result mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical result mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical results mechanism analysis _ ( 1 ) .

( 1 ) The theory of factor substitution and the theory of evaluation supervision . The process of water resource " agriculture turning off " is actually an element substitution process _ other resources are put into place to replace the water resources from the agricultural production . The water quantity after " turning off agriculture " should be ensured to meet the needs of the growth of crops , and the normal grain production process cannot be influenced by the water consumption limit .
The marginal decline of substitution efficiency and the increase of resource addition ;
The speed of water resource " agriculture turn - off " cannot exceed the additional speed of resources ;
Water resources " agriculture turn non " has the bottom line .

( 2 ) The selection of the evaluation indexes of the water resources " agricultural non - agricultural " evaluation index . Using the C - D production function as the model , a series of model statistical tests , measurement hypothesis tests and economic significance tests are carried out by processing the analysis . The final alternative resource combination is T7 ( irrigation water - saving area ) and T8 ( micro - irrigation water - saving area ) , and the corresponding marginal technology substitution coefficient is - 0.94 , - 0.26 , and the comparison between the actual data and the theoretical calculation is estimated , and the core index should meet Wn / Wt1 .

( 3 ) The evaluation of water resources in the perspective of food security . By measuring and calculating , it is found that the excess transfer of agricultural water resources is a fold increase in most years , especially over 20 times in 2008 . However , we should also see that the quantity of water resources transferred per year has declined overall after the peak period of 2003 .
The annual water saving is also an upward trend in the twists and turns , and the ratio between them has experienced some ups and downs , and the prospect is relatively optimistic . However , we still need to invest more alternative resources to increase the water saving , so as to ensure the rational and orderly transfer of water resources to the industrial sector and guarantee the smooth and healthy development of workers and peasants in our country .

( 4 ) The analysis of the basic mechanism of the above historical results reveals the following points : imperfect market mechanism , excessive government intervention , " rent seeking " , administrative " leveling " and so on ;
There is not a specification of the procedures for the transfer , the lack of historical data records in the transfer process , the inadequate supervision and control , the lack of clear regulations on the punishment of over - transfer and the like , and the like ;
The definition of initial water rights in the agricultural sector is unclear , and other sectors are squeezed and misappropriated .
The agricultural water - saving investment is insufficient , and the water - saving consciousness of the farmer is low .

( 5 ) The management countermeasure of water resources " agriculture turning off " under the perspective of food security . The historical monitoring and future prediction research of water resources " agriculture turn - off " is carried out , and the historical situation and development trend of water resources " agriculture turn - off " in our country have an overall judgment ;
perfect the relevant laws and regulations , clear the initial water rights and strengthen the legal construction of the water right transaction ;
The market mechanism is introduced to regulate the water rights trading market , perfect the three levels of the water rights trading market , and reduce the government intervention ;
Promote agricultural water - saving technologies , increase input of agricultural water - saving facilities , encourage farmers to set up water - saving concepts and adopt water - saving measures ;
Strengthen the management of the process of water resource " agriculture revolution " , establish the monitoring and management information platform , strictly control the transfer quantity and regulate the transfer procedure ;
Establish early warning mechanism for water resource monitoring , and strictly prevent the occurrence of various hidden dangers .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F323.213;F326.11

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