本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水資源 可持續(xù)利用 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 仿真模擬　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：水資源是人類生存與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展必不可少的重要資源,近幾年天津市水量減少與水質(zhì)惡化現(xiàn)象日益嚴(yán)重,本市水資源總量不足以承擔(dān)全市用水需求,對(duì)外調(diào)水的依賴性日益增大。本文針對(duì)這一現(xiàn)狀,分析其用水特點(diǎn),使用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)軟件Vensim,建立2006年到2020年的天津市水資源可持續(xù)利用的模型。模型包括人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境、水資源4個(gè)密切相關(guān)的子系統(tǒng)。運(yùn)行模型得到預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,結(jié)果顯示2020年天津市總需水量將達(dá)到40.93億m3,水資源供需缺額為7.617億m3,生活、農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)、三產(chǎn)、生態(tài)需水量分別占總需水量的13%、25%、44%、6%、12%,工業(yè)取代農(nóng)業(yè)成為需水最多的產(chǎn)業(yè)。通過選取決策變量并改變其數(shù)值,設(shè)計(jì)五種不同的發(fā)展方案：維持現(xiàn)狀型、節(jié)水型、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)型、開源型與綜合型,分別模擬它們的水資源利用趨勢(shì),通過分析對(duì)比得出水資源可持續(xù)利用的最優(yōu)方案是綜合型,它與維持現(xiàn)狀型相比,總需水量減少了6.22億m3,總供水量增加了1.56億m3,供水量能夠滿足用水需求。結(jié)合模擬結(jié)果給出建議：節(jié)約用水,推廣節(jié)水器具與節(jié)水技術(shù),適當(dāng)提高水價(jià)；調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；提高非傳統(tǒng)水源的利用率,提高海水淡化與污水處理技術(shù),充分利用雨水；加強(qiáng)管理規(guī)劃。有助于緩解供水壓力,加快實(shí)現(xiàn)水資源的可持續(xù)利用,對(duì)其它資源型缺水城市也有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Water resource is an indispensable resource for human survival and social and economic development. In recent years, the water quantity in Tianjin is decreasing and the water quality is worsening day by day. The total amount of water resources in Tianjin is not enough to meet the water demand of the whole city. The dependence of external water transfer is increasing day by day. In view of this situation, this paper analyzes the characteristics of water use and establishes the sustainable utilization model of water resources in Tianjin from 2006 to 2020 by using the system dynamics software Vensim. the models include population, economy, and so on. In 2020, the total water demand of Tianjin will reach four billion ninety-three million m3, and the shortage of water supply and demand will be 761.7 million m3. Ecological water demand accounts for 13% of the total water demand respectively. Industry replaces agriculture as the industry that needs the most water. By selecting decision variables and changing their values, five different development schemes are designed: maintaining the status quo, saving water, and adjusting the industrial structure. By analyzing and comparing the trend of water resources utilization, it is concluded that the optimal scheme of sustainable utilization of water resources is comprehensive, which is compared with that of maintaining the status quo. The total water demand is reduced by 622 million m3, the total water supply is increased by 156 million m3, and the water supply can meet the water demand. Based on the simulation results, some suggestions are given: saving water, popularizing water-saving apparatus and water-saving technology, raising water price appropriately, adjusting industrial structure; To improve the utilization rate of non-traditional water sources, to improve desalination and sewage treatment technologies, to make full use of Rain Water; to strengthen management planning; to help alleviate the pressure of water supply and to accelerate the realization of sustainable use of water resources; It also has certain reference significance to other resource-type water-deficient cities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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