本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于投影尋蹤-物元可拓模型的區(qū)域水資源承載力評價　出處：《節(jié)水灌溉》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 區(qū)域水資源 承載能力 投影尋蹤法 物元可拓模型 評價指標(biāo)體系

【摘要】：為了評價寶雞地區(qū)近年來的水資源承載力狀況,指導(dǎo)該地區(qū)水資源的可持續(xù)開發(fā)利用,將投影尋蹤法和物元可拓理論進(jìn)行結(jié)合,建立水資源承載力物元可拓模型,利用投影尋蹤法計算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,消除主觀判斷對評價結(jié)果造成的偏差。選取4個年份作為水平年序列對寶雞地區(qū)水資源承載力進(jìn)行評價,采用局部靈敏度分析方法對評價結(jié)果進(jìn)行了準(zhǔn)確性驗證。結(jié)果顯示:寶雞地區(qū)2000年水資源承載力處于強無壓力狀態(tài)向平衡狀態(tài)過渡的階段(Ⅱ級),2005和2015年處于平衡狀態(tài)(Ⅲ級),2010年處于弱壓力轉(zhuǎn)態(tài)(Ⅳ級)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,應(yīng)結(jié)合水資源承載力評價結(jié)果,制定科學(xué)合理的水資源利用方案,促進(jìn)水資源與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會協(xié)調(diào)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Baoji area in recent years and to guide the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in this area, the projection pursuit method and matter-element extension theory are combined. The matter-element extension model of water resources carrying capacity is established, and the index weight is calculated by projection pursuit method. To eliminate the deviation caused by subjective judgment on the evaluation results. 4 years were selected as horizontal year series to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Baoji area. The method of local sensitivity analysis was used to verify the accuracy of the evaluation results. The results showed that in 2000 the water resources carrying capacity in Baoji area was in the stage of transition from strong pressure free state to equilibrium state (stage 鈪，

本文編號：1403129