本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于水足跡的京津冀水資源合理配置研究　出處：《中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 京津冀 水足跡 虛擬水 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 優(yōu)化配置

【摘要】：京津冀位于中國(guó)資源型缺水地區(qū),以不足全國(guó)的0.7%的水資源,承載著全國(guó)約8%的人口、6%的糧食生產(chǎn)和10%的GDP,水資源問(wèn)題制約著京津冀地區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本研究在核算了1994-2013年京津冀地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)、生活、生態(tài)環(huán)境和虛擬水貿(mào)易五個(gè)部門水足跡基礎(chǔ)上,建立了水資源優(yōu)化配置系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,然后通過(guò)四種產(chǎn)業(yè)政策情景仿真分析,找出水資源優(yōu)化配置方案,最后通過(guò)水分生產(chǎn)力排名,確定產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整的種類與數(shù)量,促進(jìn)京津冀地區(qū)水資源供需平衡。主要工作與貢獻(xiàn)體現(xiàn)在以下三點(diǎn):(1)采用CROPWAT模型和用水定額法核算出京津冀地區(qū)水足跡。區(qū)域整體用水量發(fā)生顛覆性變化,水足跡總量為1770×108m3,是該地區(qū)實(shí)體用水的7倍,人均水足跡為1383 m3/yr,是人均實(shí)體用水的5倍。地區(qū)之間差距巨大,河北省水足跡為1523×108m3,北京市(138×108m3),天津市(108×108m3),分別是三地實(shí)體水用量的8倍、4倍和5倍;人均水足跡河北省為2226 m3/yr,在全國(guó)31個(gè)省份中排名第二位,天津市(999 m3/yr)和北京市(941 m3/yr)低于中國(guó)平均水足跡值。產(chǎn)業(yè)之間差異巨大,農(nóng)業(yè)用水比例為75.4%,生態(tài)環(huán)境用水(18.3%),其中,肉類、禽蛋類和糧食類產(chǎn)品水足跡是農(nóng)業(yè)用水主體;植樹造林用水為生態(tài)環(huán)境部門主體。(2)構(gòu)建了基于水足跡的京津冀地區(qū)水資源配置系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。模型劃分為六個(gè)子系統(tǒng),即供水子系統(tǒng)、農(nóng)業(yè)子系統(tǒng)、工業(yè)子系統(tǒng)、生活子系統(tǒng)、生態(tài)環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng),涉及70個(gè)變量,模型通過(guò)了系統(tǒng)一致性檢驗(yàn)、歷史數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)和靈敏度檢驗(yàn),能夠反映出京津冀地區(qū)水資源配置時(shí)空變化規(guī)律。(3)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品總量下降50%情景是最優(yōu)水資源配置方案。該情景下,2030年京津冀地區(qū)可實(shí)現(xiàn)水資源供需平衡,虛擬水貿(mào)易在該地區(qū)水資源供應(yīng)中占據(jù)重要地位,農(nóng)業(yè)部門用水下降8%,可節(jié)約用水總量為791×108m3。綜上,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整政策建議為:(1)預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)畜產(chǎn)品實(shí)現(xiàn)進(jìn)口50%為合理目標(biāo);(2)糧食產(chǎn)品在考慮地區(qū)安全情況下,通過(guò)改良灌溉方式實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)約用水85%;(3)棉花產(chǎn)品應(yīng)逐步退出本地區(qū),實(shí)現(xiàn)全部進(jìn)口;(4)改進(jìn)植樹造林樹種結(jié)構(gòu),模擬自然林生長(zhǎng)環(huán)境,減少水足跡。
[Abstract]:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is located in China's resource-based water shortage area, with less than 0.7% of the country's water resources, carrying about 8% of the population of China's grain production and 10% of the GDP. The problem of water resources restricts the sustainable development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This study calculates the agriculture, industry and life of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from 1994 to 2013. On the basis of ecological environment and water footprint of virtual water trade, the dynamic model of water resources optimal allocation system is established, and then through the simulation analysis of four industrial policy scenarios, the optimal allocation scheme of water resources is found. Finally, through the ranking of water productivity, the category and quantity of industrial adjustment are determined. To promote the balance of water resources supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The main work and contribution are as follows: 1). The CROPWAT model and the water quota method were used to calculate the water footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The total water footprint is 1770 脳 108m3, which is 7 times of that of the real water in this area. The per capita water footprint is 1383 m3 / yrand 5 times that of the per capita solid water. The water footprint of Hebei Province is 1523 脳 108m3, that of Beijing is 138 脳 108m3, and that of Tianjin is 108 脳 108m3, which is 8 times and 5 times as much as that of solid water in the three places. Hebei Province has a per capita water footprint of 2226 m3 / yr. it ranks second among the 31 provinces in the country. Tianjin (999m3 / yr) and Beijing (941m3 / yr) are lower than China's average water footprint. There is a huge difference between industries, the ratio of agricultural water use is 75.4%. The water footprint of meat, poultry, eggs and grain products is the main body of agricultural water use. The dynamic model of water resources allocation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on water footprint was constructed. The model was divided into six subsystems, that is, water supply subsystem and agricultural subsystem. The industrial subsystem, the life subsystem, the ecological environment subsystem and the economic subsystem, involving 70 variables, the model has passed the system consistency test, the historical data test and the sensitivity test. It can reflect the temporal and spatial variation of water resources allocation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In 2030, water supply and demand balance could be achieved in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Virtual water trade played an important role in water supply, and water consumption in agricultural sector decreased by 8%. The total amount of water saved is 791 脳 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. In summary, the industrial structure adjustment policy suggests that the reasonable target is to realize the import of 50% animal products in the forecast period. (2) under the consideration of regional safety, grain products can save 85% of water by improving irrigation method; Cotton products should be gradually withdrawn from the region to achieve full import; (4) improve the structure of afforestation tree species, simulate the growth environment of natural forest and reduce the water footprint.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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