本文選題：數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào) + 拉曼激光雷達(dá)��； 參考：《西安理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,各種非常規(guī)資料的增加以及數(shù)值模式中微物理過程和參數(shù)化方案的改進(jìn),業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)水平已大大提高。然而提高數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)的準(zhǔn)確率,關(guān)鍵還需要有準(zhǔn)確的觀測資料能提供精確的初始場。與常規(guī)觀測相比,激光雷達(dá)具有時(shí)空分辨率高、探測靈敏度高和抗干擾能力強(qiáng)等特點(diǎn)。因此,為了推動拉曼激光雷達(dá)在數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)方面的應(yīng)用,本文提出利用三維變分同化方法,結(jié)合西安理工大學(xué)大氣溫濕度同步探測系統(tǒng)探測到的大氣溫度來改進(jìn)數(shù)值模式初始場,通過設(shè)計(jì)同化實(shí)驗(yàn),分析模擬結(jié)果,進(jìn)而研究拉曼激光雷達(dá)測溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)對WRF模式模擬效果的影響。本文的主要研究成果及結(jié)論:(1)利用WRF模式和FNL資料,采用6種微物理過程和3種水平分辨率對陜西省一次降水過程進(jìn)行實(shí)驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)WDM6微物理過程方案和水平分辨率為9km時(shí)較適合陜西的數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)模擬。(2)構(gòu)建WRF模式三維變分同化系統(tǒng),設(shè)計(jì)同化實(shí)驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)通過三維變分法同化地面高空觀測資料后,可以改進(jìn)6h內(nèi)的短時(shí)預(yù)報(bào),TS評分提高了 0.07。(3)通過Multiquadric插值算法對拉曼激光雷達(dá)測溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)和陜西省高空溫度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展,完成對地面高空觀測資料及拉曼激光雷達(dá)測溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)的同化實(shí)驗(yàn),對同化實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果進(jìn)行降雨和增量分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)對地面高空觀測資料及拉曼激光雷達(dá)測溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)同化后一定程度上調(diào)整了初始場,降水TS評分相比較同化前提高了 0.12,降低了虛假降水區(qū)域,同時(shí)對溫度、水汽和風(fēng)作了一定程度的模擬優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:With the development of numerical weather prediction technology, the increase of various unconventional data and the improvement of microphysical processes and parameterization schemes in numerical models, the operational numerical prediction level has been greatly improved. However, to improve the accuracy of numerical prediction, it is necessary to have accurate observation data to provide accurate initial field. Compared with conventional observation, lidar has high space-time resolution, high detection sensitivity and strong anti-jamming ability. Therefore, in order to promote the application of Raman lidar in numerical prediction, in this paper, a three-dimensional variational assimilation method is proposed to improve the initial field of numerical model by combining the atmospheric temperature and humidity detected by the atmospheric temperature and humidity synchronous detection system of Xi'an University of Technology. By designing assimilation experiment, the simulation results are analyzed, and the influence of Raman lidar temperature measurement data on WRF model simulation is studied. The main research results and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) using WRF model and FNL data, six microphysical processes and three horizontal resolutions are used to test a precipitation process in Shaanxi Province. It is found that WDM6 microphysical process scheme and numerical weather prediction simulation with horizontal resolution of 9km are more suitable for Shaanxi. (2) Three-dimensional variational assimilation system of WRFmodel is constructed and assimilation experiment is designed. The TS score of short time prediction can be improved by 0.07% within 6 hours. (3) the Raman lidar temperature data and the upper air temperature data of Shaanxi Province are extended by Multiquadric interpolation algorithm. The assimilation experiment of surface high-altitude observation data and Raman lidar temperature measurement data is completed, and the precipitation and increment analysis of the assimilation experiment results are carried out. It is found that the initial field is adjusted to a certain extent after assimilation of surface high-altitude observation data and Raman lidar temperature data, the precipitation TS score is increased by 0.12 compared with before assimilation, and the false precipitation area is reduced, and the temperature is also analyzed. Water vapor and wind are simulated and optimized to some extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TN958.98

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