【摘要】：以漢江上游為例,基于彈性系數(shù)法和水文模擬法定量估算氣候變化和人類活動對流域徑流的影響,探討了變化環(huán)境下流域徑流對氣候變化和人類活動的響應(yīng)特征。研究結(jié)果表明:1961年-2013年漢江上游流域徑流呈明顯下降趨勢,并在1985年前后發(fā)生了突變;降水及潛在蒸散發(fā)在同時期內(nèi)也逐漸降低,但變化趨勢不顯著。氣候變化對徑流變化的貢獻(xiàn)率為42.8%~43.5%,人類活動對徑流變化的貢獻(xiàn)率為56.5%~57.2%,相比人類活動對漢江上游徑流的影響稍大,且其對徑流變化的影響呈現(xiàn)增長的趨勢。
[Abstract]:Taking the upper reaches of Hanjiang River as an example, the effects of climate change and human activities on watershed runoff are quantitatively estimated based on elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method, and the response characteristics of watershed runoff to climate change and human activities under changing environment are discussed. The results show that the runoff in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River from 1961 to 2013 shows an obvious downward trend, and there is a sudden change around 1985, and the precipitation and potential evaporation also decrease gradually in the same period, but the change trend is not significant. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 42.8% 鈮，

本文編號：2514894