混凝土壩施工進度和成本的掙值分析研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-21 05:39
【摘要】：當前正是我國水利工程項目發(fā)展建設(shè)的高峰期,有大量在建的水利工程項目,每年還會有很多新的項目開工,大型水利工程具有風險的多樣性以及施工干擾因素眾多等特點,而混凝土壩作為當前國內(nèi)水利水電工程最主要的壩型,由于混凝土壩的復雜性,現(xiàn)階段國內(nèi)針對混凝土壩施工過程的研究主要集中在施工過程模擬、施工過程模擬結(jié)果的可視化上,具體到在施工過程中立足業(yè)主的角度,針對復雜約束條件下混凝土壩進行實時費用-進度聯(lián)合分析與工期預測的研究相對較少,而通過對混凝土壩施工過程中進行施工進度與費用實時分析控制的理論方法與應(yīng)用研究表明,費用-進度集成管理可以使工程的實施和計劃緊密結(jié)合,便于業(yè)主方對于工程的掌控,在對已完工作分析的基礎(chǔ)上,進一步對未完工工作進行預測,在施工過程中通過實時分析結(jié)果指導下一階段工程的施工,從而解決我國以往水利工程項目中成本大幅超支以及工期嚴重拖延的問題,對提升我國水利工程界的項目管理水平意義重大,因此,在混凝土壩的施工過程中對項目的費用占用以及進度進展情況進行聯(lián)合評價與集成管理對我國水利工程的發(fā)展具有重要研究意義。 本文采用贏得值原理對混凝土壩施工過程中已完工作進行費用-進度聯(lián)合分析,并依據(jù)其分析結(jié)果,對未完工工作進行工期預測與費用預測。首先,本文選擇壩體混凝土工程為研究對象,對混凝土壩工程主要類型,以及其實施過程與特點進行了簡要介紹,指出了在壩體混凝土工程中進行費用-進度聯(lián)合分析基礎(chǔ)上的工期與費用預測的重要性。其次,對在已完工工作掙值分析的基礎(chǔ)上如何進行工期與費用指標的預測進行了研究。其中,本文重點研究了在工期、費用指標預測中應(yīng)用贏得值原理,并優(yōu)化了工期預測體系,構(gòu)建了工期預測指標體系。最后,在網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用贏得值原理,考慮造成工程實時進展與計劃不一致的兩種情況,引入有效工期贏得值、有效費用贏得值、返工率等變量,建立了基于贏得值原理的項目完工工期預測體系。 本文以壩體混凝土工程為例,應(yīng)用基于傳統(tǒng)的贏得值原理構(gòu)建的工期與費用預測指標體系對壩體混凝土工程進行了實例分析。最終,得出了基于當前考核時點處已完工工作的掙值分析結(jié)果,并據(jù)其對未完工工作和項目整體進行了工期與費用預測。與傳統(tǒng)贏得值原理的預測結(jié)果相比,本文的預測結(jié)果準確性更高,適用性也更好。實例分析表明,在混凝土壩工程中采用贏得值原理進行費用-進度聯(lián)合分析與工期預測可以更好地跟蹤項目實時進展過程中費用占用與進度進展狀況,并及時作出調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:At present, it is the peak period of the development and construction of water conservancy projects in our country, there are a large number of water conservancy projects under construction, and many new projects will start every year. Large-scale water conservancy projects have the characteristics of diversity of risks and many construction interference factors. Concrete dam, as the most important dam type of water conservancy and hydropower projects in China, is due to the complexity of concrete dams. At present, the domestic research on the construction process of concrete dam mainly focuses on the simulation of construction process. The visualization of the simulation results of construction process is based on the point of view of the owner in the construction process, and the research on real-time cost-schedule joint analysis and time limit prediction of concrete dam under complex constraints is relatively few. Through the research on the theory, method and application of real-time analysis and control of construction schedule and cost in the construction process of concrete dam, it is shown that the integrated management of cost and schedule can closely combine the implementation and plan of the project, which is convenient for the owner to control the project. On the basis of the analysis of the completed work, the unfinished work is further predicted, and the construction of the next stage of the project is guided by the results of real-time analysis in the construction process. In order to solve the problems of large cost overexpenditure and serious delay in the construction period of water conservancy projects in our country, it is of great significance to improve the project management level in the field of water conservancy projects in our country. Therefore, the joint evaluation and integrated management of the cost occupation and progress of the project in the construction process of concrete dams is of great significance to the development of water conservancy projects in our country. In this paper, the winning value principle is used to analyze the cost and progress of the finished work in the construction process of concrete dam, and according to the analysis results, the time limit prediction and cost prediction of the unfinished work are carried out. First of all, this paper selects the dam concrete project as the research object, briefly introduces the main types of concrete dam engineering, as well as its implementation process and characteristics, and points out the importance of the construction period and cost prediction based on the joint cost-schedule analysis in the dam concrete project. Secondly, on the basis of earned value analysis of completed work, how to predict the construction period and cost index is studied. Among them, this paper focuses on the application of winning value principle in the prediction of time limit and cost index, optimizes the time limit prediction system, and constructs the time limit prediction index system. Finally, on the basis of network diagram, using the winning value principle, considering the two cases that cause the real-time progress of the project to be inconsistent with the plan, the effective time limit winning value, the effective cost winning value, the rework rate and other variables are introduced, and the project completion time prediction system based on the winning value principle is established. Taking the concrete project of dam body as an example, this paper analyzes the concrete project of dam body by using the prediction index system of time limit and cost based on the traditional winning value principle. Finally, the earned value analysis results based on the completed work at the current assessment time point are obtained, and the time limit and cost of the unfinished work and the project as a whole are predicted. Compared with the traditional winning value principle, the prediction results in this paper are more accurate and applicable. The example analysis shows that the joint cost-schedule analysis and time limit prediction can better track the cost occupation and progress in the real-time progress of the project, and adjust it in time by using the winning value principle to carry out the joint cost-schedule analysis and time limit prediction in the concrete dam project.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV642;TV511
本文編號：2503831
[Abstract]:At present, it is the peak period of the development and construction of water conservancy projects in our country, there are a large number of water conservancy projects under construction, and many new projects will start every year. Large-scale water conservancy projects have the characteristics of diversity of risks and many construction interference factors. Concrete dam, as the most important dam type of water conservancy and hydropower projects in China, is due to the complexity of concrete dams. At present, the domestic research on the construction process of concrete dam mainly focuses on the simulation of construction process. The visualization of the simulation results of construction process is based on the point of view of the owner in the construction process, and the research on real-time cost-schedule joint analysis and time limit prediction of concrete dam under complex constraints is relatively few. Through the research on the theory, method and application of real-time analysis and control of construction schedule and cost in the construction process of concrete dam, it is shown that the integrated management of cost and schedule can closely combine the implementation and plan of the project, which is convenient for the owner to control the project. On the basis of the analysis of the completed work, the unfinished work is further predicted, and the construction of the next stage of the project is guided by the results of real-time analysis in the construction process. In order to solve the problems of large cost overexpenditure and serious delay in the construction period of water conservancy projects in our country, it is of great significance to improve the project management level in the field of water conservancy projects in our country. Therefore, the joint evaluation and integrated management of the cost occupation and progress of the project in the construction process of concrete dams is of great significance to the development of water conservancy projects in our country. In this paper, the winning value principle is used to analyze the cost and progress of the finished work in the construction process of concrete dam, and according to the analysis results, the time limit prediction and cost prediction of the unfinished work are carried out. First of all, this paper selects the dam concrete project as the research object, briefly introduces the main types of concrete dam engineering, as well as its implementation process and characteristics, and points out the importance of the construction period and cost prediction based on the joint cost-schedule analysis in the dam concrete project. Secondly, on the basis of earned value analysis of completed work, how to predict the construction period and cost index is studied. Among them, this paper focuses on the application of winning value principle in the prediction of time limit and cost index, optimizes the time limit prediction system, and constructs the time limit prediction index system. Finally, on the basis of network diagram, using the winning value principle, considering the two cases that cause the real-time progress of the project to be inconsistent with the plan, the effective time limit winning value, the effective cost winning value, the rework rate and other variables are introduced, and the project completion time prediction system based on the winning value principle is established. Taking the concrete project of dam body as an example, this paper analyzes the concrete project of dam body by using the prediction index system of time limit and cost based on the traditional winning value principle. Finally, the earned value analysis results based on the completed work at the current assessment time point are obtained, and the time limit and cost of the unfinished work and the project as a whole are predicted. Compared with the traditional winning value principle, the prediction results in this paper are more accurate and applicable. The example analysis shows that the joint cost-schedule analysis and time limit prediction can better track the cost occupation and progress in the real-time progress of the project, and adjust it in time by using the winning value principle to carry out the joint cost-schedule analysis and time limit prediction in the concrete dam project.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV642;TV511
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