發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-19 22:50

【摘要】：本文依據(jù)潤(rùn)河集水文站實(shí)測(cè)降雨及流量資料進(jìn)行分析研究,在充分考慮汛期過程所具有的隨機(jī)性、模糊性等屬性的基礎(chǔ)上,采用定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法。定性分析法中的氣象成因分析法最具代表性,它通過成因分析法將研究區(qū)域汛期進(jìn)行劃分;定量分析法又分為統(tǒng)計(jì)分析法和聚類分析法。采用統(tǒng)計(jì)分析法中具有代表性的數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)法對(duì)研究區(qū)域的汛期進(jìn)行劃分;分別采用聚類分析法中的模糊集分析法、集對(duì)分析法、分形分析法和Fisher最優(yōu)分割法對(duì)研究區(qū)域的汛期進(jìn)行劃分。通過對(duì)各分期方法的適用性分析,最后選擇采用Fisher最優(yōu)分割法得到的分期結(jié)果作為研究區(qū)域的分期結(jié)果,最終確定臨淮崗洪水控制工程的汛期分期結(jié)果為:前汛期為5月1日~6月10日,主汛期為6月11日~8月10日,后汛期為8月11日~9月30日。在汛期分期結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,通過總結(jié)比較目前存在的幾種取樣方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),選擇分期最大值取樣法來研究臨淮崗洪水控制工程的分期設(shè)計(jì)洪水。對(duì)于取樣方式,采用跨期取樣,在原設(shè)定的各分期起止日期的基礎(chǔ)上向前后各延伸5天。經(jīng)過對(duì)洪水頻率的概化研究,在不降低年防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)主汛期采用年最大值取樣法,防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為年防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn),前汛期和后汛期采用分期最大值取樣,防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為主汛期防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(年防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn))的3倍。根據(jù)收集的實(shí)測(cè)洪水資料,統(tǒng)計(jì)得到各分期洪水的指標(biāo)樣本,將得到的洪水指標(biāo)樣本進(jìn)行皮爾遜Ⅲ型頻率曲線擬合。經(jīng)計(jì)算得到各分期的設(shè)計(jì)洪水指標(biāo)值,將現(xiàn)行分期設(shè)計(jì)洪水法和本文所采用的方法計(jì)算得到的分期設(shè)計(jì)洪水指標(biāo)值與原年設(shè)計(jì)洪水指標(biāo)值進(jìn)行對(duì)比,分析得到本文所采用的方法得到的設(shè)計(jì)洪水指標(biāo)值與原年設(shè)計(jì)洪水指標(biāo)值更接近,既能反映洪水的季節(jié)性變化規(guī)律,又能滿足年防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的要求。
[Abstract]:Based on the measured rainfall and flow data of Runheji Hydrological Station, this paper adopts the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis on the basis of fully considering the randomness and fuzziness of flood season process. The meteorological cause analysis method in qualitative analysis method is the most representative, which divides the flood season of the study area through the cause analysis method, and the quantitative analysis method is divided into statistical analysis method and cluster analysis method. The representative mathematical statistics method in statistical analysis is used to divide the flood season of the study area, and the fuzzy set analysis, set pair analysis, fractal analysis and Fisher optimal segmentation method in cluster analysis are used to divide the flood season of the study area. Based on the analysis of the applicability of each staging method, the staging results obtained by Fisher optimal segmentation method are selected as the staging results of the study area. The flood season staging results of Linhuaigang Flood Control Project are determined as follows: the first flood season is from May 1 to June 10, the main flood season is from June 11 to August 10, and the latter flood season is from August 11 to September 30. On the basis of flood season staging results, by summing up and comparing the advantages and disadvantages of several existing sampling methods, the phased maximum sampling method is selected to study the phased design flood of Linhuaigang Flood Control Project. For the sampling method, intertemporal sampling is adopted, and the original starting and ending dates of each stage are extended for 5 days. Through the general study of flood frequency, on the basis of not reducing the annual flood control standard, the annual maximum sampling method is adopted for the main flood season. The flood control standard is the annual flood control standard, the first flood season and the later flood season are sampled by stages, and the flood control standard is three times of the flood control standard in flood season (annual flood control standard). According to the measured flood data, the index samples of each stage flood are statistically obtained, and the flood index samples are fitted with Pearson type III frequency curve. The design flood index values of each stage are calculated, and the design flood index values calculated by the current phased design flood method and the method used in this paper are compared with the design flood index values in the same year. The design flood index values obtained by the method used in this paper are more close to the design flood index values in the original year, which can not only reflect the seasonal variation law of the flood, but also meet the requirements of the annual flood control standard.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TV122.3;TV87

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本文編號(hào)：2502699