【摘要】：基于常州雨量站1951—2015年的年最大1 d、3 d降水量資料,利用Copula聯(lián)結(jié)函數(shù)構(gòu)建聯(lián)合分布函數(shù),推算相應(yīng)的同現(xiàn)重現(xiàn)期和組合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率,并以此為基礎(chǔ),評(píng)價(jià)常州市2015年"6·26"暴雨可能的重現(xiàn)期和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。結(jié)果表明:某一設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)下的年最大1 d、3 d降水遭遇時(shí)的同現(xiàn)重現(xiàn)期大于年最大1 d或3 d降水單變量對(duì)應(yīng)的重現(xiàn)期;同一設(shè)計(jì)頻率的暴雨遭遇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率較高,且隨著重現(xiàn)期增大而減小;"6·26"暴雨的同現(xiàn)重現(xiàn)期為218 a,同現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率為17.4%,此次暴雨具有特殊性和罕見(jiàn)性,常州市未來(lái)的防洪形勢(shì)將更為嚴(yán)峻。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual maximum precipitation data of Changzhou rainfall station from 1951 to 2015, the joint distribution function is constructed by using Copula connection function, and the corresponding recurrence period and combination risk rate are calculated. On this basis, the possible recurrence period and risk rate of "June 26" rainstorm in Changzhou City in 2015 are evaluated. The results show that the annual maximum of 1 day under a certain design standard is 1 day, and the recurrence period of precipitation in 3 days is larger than that corresponding to the univariable of 1 or 3 days of precipitation, and the risk rate of rainstorm in the same design frequency is higher and decreases with the increase of recurrence period. The recurrence period of "6 路26" rainstorm is 218 a, and the risk rate of the same occurrence is 17.4%. The rainstorm is special and rare, and the flood control situation in Changzhou City will be more serious in the future.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省水文水資源勘測(cè)局常州分局;
【分類號(hào)】：P333.2
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本文編號(hào)：2500808