【摘要】：本文以南寧市庫堤聯(lián)合的防洪工程體系為研究對象,考慮入庫洪水的隨機性及洪水隨機組合,采用蒙特卡羅法結合季節(jié)性一階自回歸模型計算南寧市防洪工程體系的防洪風險率,通過允許風險分析方法判斷城市的防洪能力。 通過研究表明：采用季節(jié)性一階自回歸模型模擬百色水庫、區(qū)間入庫洪水,模擬的洪水特征參數(shù)與實測洪水特征參數(shù)相對誤差較小,均在5%以內(nèi),能較好的反映實測樣本的統(tǒng)計特性；采用模擬洪水與南寧控制斷面各頻率設計洪水按一定規(guī)則組合,經(jīng)南寧市防洪工程體系聯(lián)合調(diào)度,計算得體系的風險率。兩方案計算結果表明：在僅考慮漫壩及漫堤破壞風險的情況下,當南寧控制斷面發(fā)生50～250年一遇洪水時,體系沒有出現(xiàn)漫壩、漫堤破壞風險；當南寧控制斷面發(fā)生300年一遇及以上洪水時,體系風險率增大,洪水頻率越小風險率越趨近于1。方案一計算的風險率大于方案二,因為方案一洪水組合中,洪水主要來自區(qū)間,老口水庫防洪庫容較小,對南寧市防洪較為不利。同時也說明了方案一的風險率計算結果更接近于工程實際,其洪水組合方式基本符合南寧市洪水組成特點。以生命損失風險為指標,采用允許風險分析方法計算體系風險。在僅考慮漫壩及漫堤破壞風險的情況下,當南寧控制斷面發(fā)生300年一遇洪水時,體系風險值遠遠超過允許風險標準。綜合判斷,南寧市防洪工程體系防洪能力基本上達到250年一遇洪水標準,略大于南寧市原規(guī)劃設計的200年一遇的防洪標準。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the flood control engineering system of Nanning reservoir embankment is taken as the research object, considering the randomness of flood and random combination of flood, Monte Carlo method combined with seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to calculate the flood control risk rate of Nanning flood control engineering system, and the flood control capacity of Nanning city is judged by allowable risk analysis method. The results show that the seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to simulate the flood in Baise reservoir, and the relative error between the simulated flood characteristic parameters and the measured flood characteristic parameters is small, which is less than 5%, which can better reflect the statistical characteristics of the measured samples. By using the combination of simulated flood and Nanning control section frequency design flood according to certain rules, the risk rate of the system is calculated by the joint dispatching of Nanning flood control engineering system. The calculation results of the two schemes show that when the flood in Nanning control section occurs once in 50 years and 250 years, the system does not overrun the dam, and when the flood occurs more than 300 years in Nanning control section, the risk rate of the system increases, and the smaller the flood frequency is, the closer the risk rate is. The risk rate calculated in the first scheme is higher than that in the second scheme, because in the scheme-flood combination, the flood mainly comes from the interval, and the flood control capacity of the Lakou reservoir is small, which is disadvantageous to the flood control of Nanning City. At the same time, it is shown that the calculation results of the risk rate of scheme 1 are closer to the engineering practice, and the flood combination mode basically accords with the characteristics of flood composition in Nanning. Taking the risk of loss of life as the index, the allowable risk analysis method is used to calculate the system risk. When the flood occurs once in 300 years, the risk value of the system far exceeds the allowable risk standard when only the failure risk of overflowing dam and embankment is taken into account, and the risk value of the system is much higher than the allowable risk standard when there is a flood in Nanning control section once in 300 years. According to the comprehensive judgment, the flood control capacity of Nanning flood control engineering system basically reaches the flood control standard of 250 years, which is slightly larger than the flood control standard of 200 years originally planned and designed in Nanning City.
【學位授予單位】：廣西大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU998.4;TV87

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