門樓水庫洪水預報研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-10 15:12
【摘要】：洪澇災害是威脅人類生存的十大自然災害之一,在給工、農(nóng)業(yè)帶來巨大損失的同時,還會威脅人類的生命財產(chǎn)安全。洪水預報作為現(xiàn)今重要的防洪減災非工程措施之一,不但能幫助人類有效的防御洪水、減小洪水災害給人類帶來的危害,并且可以使人類更好的控制和利用水資源。門樓水庫流域現(xiàn)有的洪水預報方案精度并不高,由于水庫上游修建了大量的中小型水庫,對流域的產(chǎn)、匯流起到了較大的影響。本文針對這種影響,利用流域場次洪水、前期土壤含水量和小型水庫庫容與面積關系等資料,動態(tài)考慮流域產(chǎn)流面積,給出了計算各時段產(chǎn)流面積的方法,將改進后的預報結果與之前的結果進行比較,精度得到大幅度提高,并分析了其合理性。 本文研究內(nèi)容與成果如下： 本文通過對門樓水庫的流域概況、水文資料和現(xiàn)有的洪水預報方案進行分析,根據(jù)門樓水庫流域的最新需求,利用大伙房模型(DHF)重新編制預報方案。在新的預報方案中,為了提高徑流量的模擬精度,將流域的蒸發(fā)參數(shù)進行分類,確定了根據(jù)不同日降雨量對應不同蒸發(fā)參數(shù)的計算方法,并利用粒子群算法對參數(shù)進行優(yōu)選。 分析了門樓流域上游的小型水庫對產(chǎn)、匯流帶來的影響。本文利用流域場次洪水、前期土壤含水量和小型水庫庫容與面積關系等資料,動態(tài)考慮流域產(chǎn)流面積,給出了計算各時段產(chǎn)流面積的方法。在此基礎上,編制了考慮上游水利工程影響的預報方案,使得產(chǎn)流精度得到大幅度提高,并從參數(shù)和典型洪水兩方面分析了其合理性及可能存在的問題。 分析了門樓水庫流域匯流預報精度不高的原因,把流域洪水的降雨中心分成上游、下游、均勻降雨三類。對這三類降雨分別利用不同的參數(shù)進行匯流模擬,使流域匯流精度得到進一步的提高。并從資料、上游水利工程影響和演進過程三方面分析了匯流仍可能存在的問題。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the ten natural disasters that threaten the survival of human beings. It will not only bring great losses to industry and agriculture, but also threaten the safety of human life and property. Flood forecasting, as one of the important non-engineering measures for flood control and disaster reduction, can not only help human beings to effectively prevent floods, reduce the harm caused by flood disasters, but also make human beings better control and use water resources. The accuracy of the existing flood forecasting schemes in the Menglou reservoir basin is not high. Because a large number of small and medium-sized reservoirs have been built in the upper reaches of the reservoir, it has a great impact on the yield and confluence of the basin. In view of this influence, based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given. The improved prediction results are compared with the previous results, and the accuracy is greatly improved, and its rationality is analyzed. The research contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: based on the analysis of the general situation, hydrological data and existing flood forecasting schemes of Menglou Reservoir Basin, according to the latest demand of Mentou Reservoir Basin, The prediction scheme is reworked out by using the large room model (DHF). In the new prediction scheme, in order to improve the simulation accuracy of runoff, the evaporation parameters of the basin are classified, the calculation methods of different evaporation parameters corresponding to different daily rainfall are determined, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters. The influence of small reservoirs in the upper reaches of Menglou Basin on production and confluence is analyzed. Based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given in this paper. On this basis, a forecasting scheme considering the influence of upstream water conservancy projects is worked out, which greatly improves the accuracy of runoff generation, and analyzes its rationality and possible problems from two aspects of parameters and typical floods. This paper analyzes the reasons for the low accuracy of confluence prediction in Menglou Reservoir Basin, and divides the rainfall center of flood into three categories: upstream, downstream and uniform rainfall. The confluence simulation of these three types of rainfall is carried out by using different parameters, which further improves the accuracy of watershed confluence. The possible problems of confluence are analyzed from three aspects: data, influence and evolution process of upstream water conservancy projects.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV697.13;P338
本文編號：2473754
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the ten natural disasters that threaten the survival of human beings. It will not only bring great losses to industry and agriculture, but also threaten the safety of human life and property. Flood forecasting, as one of the important non-engineering measures for flood control and disaster reduction, can not only help human beings to effectively prevent floods, reduce the harm caused by flood disasters, but also make human beings better control and use water resources. The accuracy of the existing flood forecasting schemes in the Menglou reservoir basin is not high. Because a large number of small and medium-sized reservoirs have been built in the upper reaches of the reservoir, it has a great impact on the yield and confluence of the basin. In view of this influence, based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given. The improved prediction results are compared with the previous results, and the accuracy is greatly improved, and its rationality is analyzed. The research contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: based on the analysis of the general situation, hydrological data and existing flood forecasting schemes of Menglou Reservoir Basin, according to the latest demand of Mentou Reservoir Basin, The prediction scheme is reworked out by using the large room model (DHF). In the new prediction scheme, in order to improve the simulation accuracy of runoff, the evaporation parameters of the basin are classified, the calculation methods of different evaporation parameters corresponding to different daily rainfall are determined, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters. The influence of small reservoirs in the upper reaches of Menglou Basin on production and confluence is analyzed. Based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given in this paper. On this basis, a forecasting scheme considering the influence of upstream water conservancy projects is worked out, which greatly improves the accuracy of runoff generation, and analyzes its rationality and possible problems from two aspects of parameters and typical floods. This paper analyzes the reasons for the low accuracy of confluence prediction in Menglou Reservoir Basin, and divides the rainfall center of flood into three categories: upstream, downstream and uniform rainfall. The confluence simulation of these three types of rainfall is carried out by using different parameters, which further improves the accuracy of watershed confluence. The possible problems of confluence are analyzed from three aspects: data, influence and evolution process of upstream water conservancy projects.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV697.13;P338
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