【摘要】：洪澇災(zāi)害是威脅人類(lèi)生存的十大自然災(zāi)害之一,在給工、農(nóng)業(yè)帶來(lái)巨大損失的同時(shí),還會(huì)威脅人類(lèi)的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全。洪水預(yù)報(bào)作為現(xiàn)今重要的防洪減災(zāi)非工程措施之一,不但能幫助人類(lèi)有效的防御洪水、減小洪水災(zāi)害給人類(lèi)帶來(lái)的危害,并且可以使人類(lèi)更好的控制和利用水資源。門(mén)樓水庫(kù)流域現(xiàn)有的洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案精度并不高,由于水庫(kù)上游修建了大量的中小型水庫(kù),對(duì)流域的產(chǎn)、匯流起到了較大的影響。本文針對(duì)這種影響,利用流域場(chǎng)次洪水、前期土壤含水量和小型水庫(kù)庫(kù)容與面積關(guān)系等資料,動(dòng)態(tài)考慮流域產(chǎn)流面積,給出了計(jì)算各時(shí)段產(chǎn)流面積的方法,將改進(jìn)后的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果與之前的結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,精度得到大幅度提高,并分析了其合理性。 本文研究?jī)?nèi)容與成果如下： 本文通過(guò)對(duì)門(mén)樓水庫(kù)的流域概況、水文資料和現(xiàn)有的洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案進(jìn)行分析,根據(jù)門(mén)樓水庫(kù)流域的最新需求,利用大伙房模型(DHF)重新編制預(yù)報(bào)方案。在新的預(yù)報(bào)方案中,為了提高徑流量的模擬精度,將流域的蒸發(fā)參數(shù)進(jìn)行分類(lèi),確定了根據(jù)不同日降雨量對(duì)應(yīng)不同蒸發(fā)參數(shù)的計(jì)算方法,并利用粒子群算法對(duì)參數(shù)進(jìn)行優(yōu)選。 分析了門(mén)樓流域上游的小型水庫(kù)對(duì)產(chǎn)、匯流帶來(lái)的影響。本文利用流域場(chǎng)次洪水、前期土壤含水量和小型水庫(kù)庫(kù)容與面積關(guān)系等資料,動(dòng)態(tài)考慮流域產(chǎn)流面積,給出了計(jì)算各時(shí)段產(chǎn)流面積的方法。在此基礎(chǔ)上,編制了考慮上游水利工程影響的預(yù)報(bào)方案,使得產(chǎn)流精度得到大幅度提高,并從參數(shù)和典型洪水兩方面分析了其合理性及可能存在的問(wèn)題。 分析了門(mén)樓水庫(kù)流域匯流預(yù)報(bào)精度不高的原因,把流域洪水的降雨中心分成上游、下游、均勻降雨三類(lèi)。對(duì)這三類(lèi)降雨分別利用不同的參數(shù)進(jìn)行匯流模擬,使流域匯流精度得到進(jìn)一步的提高。并從資料、上游水利工程影響和演進(jìn)過(guò)程三方面分析了匯流仍可能存在的問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the ten natural disasters that threaten the survival of human beings. It will not only bring great losses to industry and agriculture, but also threaten the safety of human life and property. Flood forecasting, as one of the important non-engineering measures for flood control and disaster reduction, can not only help human beings to effectively prevent floods, reduce the harm caused by flood disasters, but also make human beings better control and use water resources. The accuracy of the existing flood forecasting schemes in the Menglou reservoir basin is not high. Because a large number of small and medium-sized reservoirs have been built in the upper reaches of the reservoir, it has a great impact on the yield and confluence of the basin. In view of this influence, based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given. The improved prediction results are compared with the previous results, and the accuracy is greatly improved, and its rationality is analyzed. The research contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: based on the analysis of the general situation, hydrological data and existing flood forecasting schemes of Menglou Reservoir Basin, according to the latest demand of Mentou Reservoir Basin, The prediction scheme is reworked out by using the large room model (DHF). In the new prediction scheme, in order to improve the simulation accuracy of runoff, the evaporation parameters of the basin are classified, the calculation methods of different evaporation parameters corresponding to different daily rainfall are determined, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters. The influence of small reservoirs in the upper reaches of Menglou Basin on production and confluence is analyzed. Based on the data of flood, soil water content and the relationship between storage capacity and area of small reservoirs in the early stage, the runoff yield area of the basin is considered dynamically, and the method of calculating the runoff yield area in each period is given in this paper. On this basis, a forecasting scheme considering the influence of upstream water conservancy projects is worked out, which greatly improves the accuracy of runoff generation, and analyzes its rationality and possible problems from two aspects of parameters and typical floods. This paper analyzes the reasons for the low accuracy of confluence prediction in Menglou Reservoir Basin, and divides the rainfall center of flood into three categories: upstream, downstream and uniform rainfall. The confluence simulation of these three types of rainfall is carried out by using different parameters, which further improves the accuracy of watershed confluence. The possible problems of confluence are analyzed from three aspects: data, influence and evolution process of upstream water conservancy projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV697.13;P338

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